NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, December 3:
Wagering on sports daily is like being a closer in baseball. You must have a short-term memory and put a bad day behind you, and that’s what I will do today. The one positive from Monday is that four of the losses were half-unit plays, offset by a two-unit win on the Devils’ money line.
We deserved a better fate in the Utah-Dallas game, but Stars goalie, Casey DeSmith was outstanding and stole that game for Dallas. It reminds me of this line from former NHL coach Alain Vigneault: “My goalie is better than yours, I win. Your goalie is better than mine, you win.” Sounds simple, but Monday night was proof positive as it took Utah 53 minutes of game time to finally get one past the Stars goalie for their only goal of the game. DeSmith topped 34 of 35 shots and many were grade-A opportunities by Utah HC. On to today’s action and getting back to a profitable day on the ice.
Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins (-180, 6)
7 p.m. ET
Detroit is coming off back-to-back 5-4 losses and I don’t see any reason to believe they get back in the win column tonight at Boston. First and foremost, this is a play against Red Wings goalie Ville Husso. With injuries to Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon, Husso, for now, is the No. 1 goalie, though he’s still looking for his first win of the season. In his three starts, Husso has given up 10 goals on 55 shots (4.90 GAA, .818 save percentage). The Wings did recall goalie of the future Sebastian Cossa (15th overall, 2021 NHL Draft) from Grand Rapids of the AHL. Even though Detroit doesn’t have any back-to-backs until Dec. 20-21, I would not be surprised to see Cossa get a start in one of the Wings’ upcoming road games at Ottawa, Buffalo or Philadelphia.
The Bruins last played on Sunday, doubling up the Canadiens 6-3, commemorating the 100th anniversary of their first NHL game. Boston is now 4-2 under interim head coach Joe Sacco and has traded wins and losses over its past five games. The Bruins have gone to overtime six times this season but are yet to need extra time to settle the outcome under Sacco.
NHL Prediction: Boston Bruins in Regulation (-120) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche (-145, 6.5) at Buffalo Sabres
7 p.m. ET
After winning all three games on their California road trip, the Sabres have dropped three straight, getting shut out in two of the three, including a 3-0 loss to the Islanders on Saturday. Teams coming off a game in which they were shut out have cashed the first-period Over 1.5 in 29 of 45 games. For those of you who like instant gratification, a goal in the first 10 minutes has been an even better play, going 32-13 and the full-game Over is 26-16-3.
First periods have been a struggle of late for the Avs. Courtesy of @RogersPicks, Colorado is 0-9-2 on the money line in the opening period in its last 11 games. Buffalo is 6-2-4 at home covering the money line in the opening 20 minutes. The Avalanche continue to be a model of inconsistency. Since winning three consecutive games, Colorado has lost three of its last four heading into this game at Buffalo. The history between the two teams says this could be a good spot for Colorado to get back in the win column as the Avs have won eight of their last 10 versus the Sabres. I have no problem with the Avalanche winning the game, just not the first period.
NHL Predictions: Buffalo Sabres 1st-period ML (-115) – 1 unit
Buffalo Sabres/Colorado Avalanche Goal 1st 10 – Yes (-160) – 1 unit
Buffalo Sabres/Colorado Avalanche 1st-period Over 1.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Buffalo Sabres/Colorado Avalanche Over 6.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers (-180, 6.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
Both the Panthers and Penguins come into today’s game on a three-game win streak. Florida has the better resume, having knocked off the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes twice while Pittsburgh has wins over the Bruins and Flames and handed the Canucks only their second road loss of the season. Florida has scored four or more goals in 14 of their 15 wins this season, while the Penguins have given up four+ goals in 14 of their 16 losses.
The Panthers have won four straight games over the Penguins and four of the last 10 meetings have gone to overtime. Pittsburgh has gone to overtime seven times this season. The Pens are 1-7 this season a home underdog.
One other trend that caught my eye is that the Panthers have cashed the Over 1.5 goals in the first period in eight of 10 road games.
NHL Predictions: Florida Panthers/Pittsburgh Panthers Goal 1st 10 — Yes (-145) — ½ unit
Florida Panthers TT over 3.5 (-110) – 2 units
Florida Panthers ML (-180) – 2 units
San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals (-290, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
Break up the San Jose Sharks, winners of two straight and three of their last four games. The Sharks are coming off a home-and-home sweep of the Seattle Kraken and split a pair of games against the Anaheim Ducks. Tonight is a major step up in weight class for San Jose. Washington is tops in the Metro Division and owns the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Caps have won four straight, including wins over Florida and New Jersey and will look to win five in a row for the second time this season.
Home favorites like Washington tonight (-200+) coming off a win are 20-4 this season and have scored four-plus goals in 21 of these games. Washington has scored four or more goals in 15 games this season while the Sharks have surrendered at least four goals in 14 of their 27 games.
If it’s a Washington game, the first-period Over 1.5 must be in consideration. The first-period prop has cashed in 15 of the last 16 Caps games.
NHL Predictions: Washington Capitals/San Jose Sharks 1st-period Over 1.5 (-140) – 2 units
Washington Capitals TT Over 3.5 (-160) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes (-265, 6)
7 p.m.
These teams are likely to be a little testy when they hit the ice tonight. The Kraken are coming off back-to-back losses to the San Jose Sharks as they join the Los Angeles Kings as the only teams to lose twice to the team in teal. Seattle is starting a four-game eastern road swing tonight in Carolina before facing the Devils, Islanders and Rangers. The Kraken have lost three straight and have been lit up for 17 goals.
The Hurricanes are coming off a brutal weekend as they were swept by the Florida Panthers in a two-game home-and-home series. Carolina gave up six goals in each game, including getting blanked 6-0 in the second half of the back-to-back. The Canes have just two wins in their past six games. Because of injuries to goalies Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov, Spencer Martin played both ends of the home-and-home against Florida. Kochetkov was back at practice on Monday and head coach Rod Brind’Amour indicated he could return tonight. On Monday, the Canes signed veteran goalie Dustin Tokarski to an NHL contract as a precaution if Kochetkov can’t go. Tokarski has been playing for Carolina’s AHL team, the Chicago Wolves.
We do have a couple of system plays in effect tonight. The Kraken are coming off a loss to San Jose and teams in this spot are 6-2 in their next game. With Carolina coming off being shut out, we follow the trends of the first-period Over 1.5, goal in the first 10 and full-game Over the total. The Kraken’s last three games have had a combined six goals or more, while Carolina games have reached six goals in their last six games, further adding to the value of the game at worst pushing on the total. I am going to pass on playing Seattle despite it being a system play. I will add the Hurricanes’ team total Over 3.5. Carolina has scored a combined three goals over the past two games and has yet to go three consecutive games without scoring at least four goals in a game. For the season, the Hurricanes have scored four+ goals in 16 of their 25 games.
NHL Predictions: Seattle Kraken/Carolina Hurricanes 1st-period Over 1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken/Carolina Hurricanes goal in the 1st 10 – Yes (-135) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken/Carolina Hurricanes Over 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-140) – 1 unit
New York Islanders (-140, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
The Islanders opened as a (-150) road favorite, but we are seeing the line move toward the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal is receiving only 33% of the bets but 51% of the money. Here we have the money on this game coming in equally on both sides, but it appears “sharp money” is coming in on the home team.
The Islanders have just five wins in 14 road games and have lost three straight at Montreal. The Islanders won the only meeting this season between the teams, 4-3 in a shootout. Four of the last 10 meetings between the teams have gone past 60 with each team winning two at home. A fun fact for Islanders fans and those who like to wager on their games. For the season, if you wagered to win $100 when the Isles are a favorite and wagered $100 when they were an underdog, you would be down 15.2 units. If you just played their games go to overtime, you would be up approximately 3 units.
NHL Predictions: Montreal Canadiens ML (+120) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+300) – ¼ unit
Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild (-145, 5.5)
8 p.m. ET
This is the sixth and final stop for the Canucks on their road trip as they take on the Wild. Vancouver has won four of the first five games on the trip and its 10 road victories, all with goalie Kevin Lankinen between the pipes, have the Canucks tied with Minnesota and New Jersey for the most road wins in the NHL.
The Wild, like the Canucks, have been better on the road than at home, but Minnesota has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Vancouver and five straight on home ice.
First periods have been a problem for the Canucks of late as they have led after the opening 20 minutes only once in their last 12 games (1-6-5).
NHL Predictions: Minnesota Wild 1st-period ML (-135) – 2 units
Minnesota Wild ML (full game) (-135) – 2 units
Edmonton Oilers (-130, 6.5) at Vegas Golden Knights
10 p.m. ET
This game opened with the Oilers as a small (-115) road favorite and bettors continue to pound Edmonton, driving the line up to (-130). Edmonton is coming off back-to-back wins over Utah and Colorado and hopes to avenge a loss earlier this season to the Golden Knights on home ice. Vegas is coming off its worst home loss in franchise history, losing 6-0 to Utah on Saturday. After winning eight straight to start the season at “The Fortress,” the Golden Knights have dropped three of their last four on home ice. Vegas captain Mark Stone returned to practice on Monday in a red non-contact jersey, but Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy ruled him out for this game, saying Stone will need a full practice with contact before getting cleared for game action. Tuesday marks the second time this season Vegas will be a home underdog. In their lone game in this spot, the Golden Knights lost very convincingly to Carolina, 5-2.
The Oilers come to Vegas winners of three straight, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 14-6. Three of Edmonton’s last five wins have come in overtime. The Golden Knights have gone past 60 minutes in two of their last four games.
As I referenced earlier, the Knights were blanked in their previous game, so that triggers our system plays of goal in the first 10 minutes, first-period Over 1.5 goals and the full-game Over the total. I do have some concerns playing the full-game Over the total and will wait for a better in-game/live opportunity. Vegas home games have cashed the first-period Over 1.5 goals in 10 of 12 games. For the season, the first period has cashed in 29 of 45 games after a team was shut out. A goal in the first 10 in this scenario has a 71% success rate (32 of 45). The Oilers and Knights games have had a team score a goal in the first 10 minutes in six of their last games.
Going to return to a prop that has treated us well this season — VGK’s Pavel Dorofeyev to record at least three shots on goal. He has cashed this prop in his last five games and nine of his last 13.
NHL Predictions: Edmonton Oilers/Vegas Golden Knights goal 1st 10 – Yes (-166) – 1 unit
Edmonton Oilers/Vegas Golden Knights 1st-period Over 1.5 (-160) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev 3+ SOG (-115) – 1 unit
Edmonton Oilers/Vegas Golden Knights Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
