NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, February 25:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs (-155, 5.5) at Boston Bruins
7 p.m. ET
Tonight is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto won two of the three matchups, outscoring Boston 10-4 in the two wins and losing 4-3 in overtime back in October. Mitch Marner has 10 points in the three games vs the B’s this season (all multi-point games), and Matthew Knies has five goals and eight points, including a hat trick and a pair of assists in the most recent victory over Boston. Knies has five goals in six games against Bruins’ projected starting goalie, Jeremy Swayman. It won’t be any easier for Swayman the rest of the season with no McAvoy and Lindholm on the blueline.
A pair of Bruins players that I am targeting tonight are David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie. Geekie has eight goals in his last 12 games and has been moved up to the Bruins’ top power play unit. Pastrnak is still on a monster point streak with 11 goals and 27 points over the last 14 games. He has scored three times versus the Maple Leafs this season, with one of those goals coming against projected Leafs starting goalie Anthony Stolarz.
I will be on two other props tonight: a goal in the first 10 minutes (Toronto 15-3 run overall, 14-4 on the road) and the full game Over 5.5. The Bruins are 18-9 to the Over this season as an underdog.
NHL Predictions: Bruins/Maple Leafs Over 5.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Goal 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
Mitch Marner Over 1.5 points (+172) – ½ unit
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+270) – ¼ unit
Morgan Geekie anytime goal (+310) – ¼ unit
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+125) – ¼ unit
Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres (-195, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Sabres are coming off an 8-2 pummeling of the Rangers on Saturday and have won five of their last six games overall, but it is too little, too late for them to make a legitimate playoff push. They are 11 points out of a playoff spot and having to climb over eight teams. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks sit seven points behind a playoff spot and have played fewer games than the two wild card teams they are chasing. Buffalo won the lone meeting between the two teams this season (3-2 in Anaheim), but the Ducks have won three of their last four trips to Buffalo. I will play Ducks Money Line for a small wager.
Buffalo defenseman Owen Power has recorded an assist in six of his last seven games but let’s keep that between us because the books are offering a Power assist at a very generous (+175). I am also on goal in the first 10 minutes, the first period and full game Overs. Sabres home games are on an 18-5 run to a goal in the first 10 minutes of the game. Buffalo has cashed the first period Over in six straight home games and 18 of 28 overall. The Ducks have been a solid first period Over team on the road, going 18-11 compared to 15-12 at home.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-160) – 1 unit
1st Period Over 1.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Full Game Over 6 (-115) – ½ unit
Owen Power Over ½ assist (+176) – ½ unit
Carolina Hurricanes (-205, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
The Hurricanes have won nine straight over the Canadiens and have done so convincingly. Four straight wins by two or more goals and seven of nine by three or more goals. But the Canes have struggled of late. They lost four of their last five including a 6-3 loss to Toronto on Saturday in a game they trailed 4-0 after the opening 20 minutes. The Canadiens are coming off a 5-2 win over a depleted Ottawa Senators team that snapped a three-game losing streak. Tonight, Montreal will have a tougher test against a team that historically owns them. The Side and total are a pass, and I will focus on player props.
Sebastian Aho has 10 goals and 23 points in 20 career games versus the Habs and four goals in seven games against tonight’s starting goalie for Montreal, Samuel Montembeault. Aho also has six career power play goals against the Canadiens. If you have a sportsbook that offers Power Play goals, specifically, it’s worth a play. I could only find a Power Play point prop (+200), so I am sticking with just the anytime goal for Aho. Seth Jarvis has four goals in five games versus Montembeault, and Jack Roslovic has four goals in seven games. I am aware that Roslovic is on the fourth line, but he does play on the second Power Play unit. Montreal’s Patrik Laine has eight goals in 13 games versus Hurricanes goalie Freddie Anderson.
NHL Predictions: Sebastian Aho anytime goal (+155) – ¼ unit
Seth Jarvis anytime goal (+175) – ¼ unit
Jack Roslovic anytime goal (+550) – ¼ unit
Patrik Laine anytime goal (+290) – ¼ unit
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers (-135, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
It’s a battle of in-state rivals as the Penguins visit the Flyers at Wells Fargo arena tonight. The Pens have lost three straight and four of five, including giving up a combined 13 goals in their last two games coming out of the 4 Nations break. If the Flyers don’t interest you as a betting favorite, think again. Philadelphia is 11-3 this season as a betting favorite, including a 3-2 win over the Penguins on February 8 as a (-175) home favorite.
While I like the Flyers to win the game, all my player props are on Penguins. Erik Karlsson is on a seven-game point streak that includes eight assists. Michael Bunting has a pair of goals in two games against Flyers projected starter Samuel Ersson, while Rickard Rakell and Philip Tomasino both have three goals in three games versus Ersson.
NHL Predictions: Flyers ML (-135) – 1.5 units
Erik Karlsson Over ½ assist (+132) – ¼ unit
Rickard Rakell anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Michael Bunting anytime goal (+390) – ¼ unit
Philip Tomasino anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals (-200, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Alexander Ovechkin watch continues tonight with the Calgary Flames in town. The “Great 8” is just 13 goals shy of breaking Gretzky’s all-time goal mark of 894 career goals. Ovechkin is coming off a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday, and his Capitals teammates are teeing him up every chance they get. Ovi had 15 shots on goal and 21 directed at the net in two games this past weekend. Ovi has 17 goals in 26 games against the Flames and two goals in four games versus Dan Vladar, who is making his first start in 23 days. Always great to have your first start in over three weeks with Ovechkin firing laser beams all night. Ovi isn’t the only Caps player who is on a goal streak. Tom Wilson has six goals in his last five games. His 26 goals this season is a new career high (24 was the previous). The Capitals have been leaky defensively of late, giving up three or more goals in eight consecutive games. The Flames MacKenzie Weegar is on a six-game assists streak (seven total).
NHL Predictions: Ovechkin anytime goal (-105) – 1 unit
Ovechkin last goal of the game (+650) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (-108) -1 unit
Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG (+205) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin Over 5.5 SOG (+420) – ¼ unit
MacKenzie Weegar Over ½ assist (+150) – 1 unit
Tom Wilson anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Calgary Flames TT over 2.5 (-130) – ½ unit
Dallas Stars (-195, 6) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars have been on a full game Over run, with eight of their last 10 games having a combined six or more goals and seven of the 10 games with at least seven combined goals. The Stars are a little thin on the blueline with injuries to Miro Heiskanen, Lian Bichsel and Nils Lundkvist. That has me targeting the Jackets team total, Over 2.5 goals. Columbus has scored at least three goals in 23 of their 28 home games. Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski’s 62 points is only second to Cale Makar (64). Werenski has assists in three straight and five of the last six games. One Dallas prop that is on my radar is an anytime goal from Evgenii Dadonov. The Dallas forward has five goals in seven games against Jackets goalie Elvis Merzlikins, including two this season.
NHL Predictions: Jackets TT Over 2.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Stars/Jackets Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Zach Werenski Over ½ assist (-115) – 1 unit
Evgenii Dadonov anytime goal (+340) – ¼ unit
Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning (-112, 6.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
This game is all about the props. Connor McDavid has scored eight goals in eight games versus Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Interestingly, Leon Draisaitl has just nine goals in 17 games against the Lightning in his career but has seven goals in 10 games versus Vasilevskiy. Edmonton is on a 12-2 run to the 1st period Over 1.5 goals.
NHL Predictions: Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+125) – ¼ unit
Connor McDavid anytime goal (+150) – ¼ unit
Nikita Kucherov anytime goal (+135) – ¼ unit
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-160) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues (-140, 5.5)
8 p.m. ET
The Kraken’s Shane Wright is on a roll with 13 points in his last 12 games.
NHL Prediction: Wright Over ½ point (+128) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers (-162, 5.5) at Nashville Predators
8 p.m. ET
It’s been a while, but our systems play of playing a goal in the first 10 minutes of the game and the first period Over is live in this game. Nashville was blanked by New Jersey, 5-0, on Saturday.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-125) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild (-120, 5.5)
8 p.m. ET
Minnesota opened as a (-148) home favorite and the line has been moving in favor of the visiting Detroit Red Wings (-120) with 43% of the bets and 65% of the money coming in on Detroit. The line move is interesting, considering that the Wild have won eight of the last 10 overall and seven of the last eight at home against the Wings.
Early goals have been the trend for both these teams, with Red Wings games having a goal in the opening 10 minutes in seven straight games, and it’s cashed in eight straight Wild home games.
A couple of player props that are on my bingo card. Detroit’s Lucas Raymond has six goals in seven games against Detroit, and Minnesota’s Matt Boldy has seven goals in seven games versus the Red Wings, including two goals against tonight’s goalie, Cam Talbot.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
Lucas Raymond anytime goal (+220) – ¼ unit
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+155) – ¼ unit
Chicago Blackhawks at Utah HC (-270, 6.5)
9 p.m. ET
The Blackhawks cashing the 1st period Over 1.5 goals is in a two-game slump but still 16-4 in their last 20 games. I am willing to give it one more shot before putting this play on pause. The goal in the first 10 minutes of the game prop is still hot when it comes to Hawks games. It has cashed in eight of their last nine road games and 16 of 20 overall.
A couple of player props that I am targeting tonight. Utah’s Michael Carcone has four goals in three games versus Hawks goalie Arvid Soderblom. Utah’s power play is on a run of six goals in their last 12 opportunities (spanning four games). Both Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller have been a part of four of the six power play goals.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-160) – 1 unit
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 1 unit
Clayton Keller Over ½ Power Play Point (+180) – ¼ unit
Michael Carcone anytime goal (+420) – ¼ unit
Dylan Guenther Over ½ Power Play point (+200) – ¼ unit
