NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, January 28:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning (-360, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
These teams met in Chicago on Friday night and the Blackhawks were 42 seconds away from upsetting the Lightning before Jake Guentzel tied the game and Nikita Kucherov scored the OT winner for a 4-3 Tampa victory. Expect Andrei Vasilevskiy to get the start tonight after backup Jonas Johansson was in goal in the previous meeting. Vasilevskiy is 13-0 lifetime against the Blackhawks. Even with his dominance, I wouldn’t bet the Lightning at -360 on the money line. Tampa has scored four or more goals in nine of 10 and 14 of their last 16 wins over Chicago. Their team total Over 3.5 is at -170, which is too juicy for me. Tampa on the Puck Line (-1.5 goals) at -135 is not a bad bet. Eight of Tampa’s last nine wins over Chicago have been by two or more goals.
What I will play in this game is a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes and the first period Over 1.5 goals. Tampa is coming off a shutout loss to Detroit on Saturday and is in our system play. Teams coming off a game where they were blanked have had a goal scored (by either team) in the first 10 minutes in 65 of 93 games this season. The first-period Over 1.5 has cashed in 56 of the 93 games and Chicago games have gone Over the first-period total in 15 of their last 16 games. Both these props have been heavily juiced, but I can’t ignore the success rate.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10/Yes (-175) – 2 units
1st-Period Over 1.5 (-160) – 2 units
Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres (-110, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Bruins are hanging on by a thread to a playoff spot. They are currently in wild-card spot No. 1, but they are just one point up on the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have played one fewer game. Four other teams are within four points of the B’s for a wild-card spot. Their opponent for tonight, the Sabres, sit last in the Eastern Conference standings and 30th overall in the league standings. Despite Boston being 15 points better than Buffalo in the standings, this game is a coin flip with both teams at -110 on the Money Line. If I was forced to choose a side in this game, I would go with Boston, but I am not forced to pick a winner, so I will pass. What I won’t pass on is playing a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes and the first-period total Over 1.5 goals. Buffalo home games have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes in 15 of the last 18 home games and Boston road games have had a quick-strike goal in 13 of the last 17. The first-period Over 1.5 goals has also been profitable when playing the Bruins on the road (16-9) and the Sabres at home (14-9).
A couple of player props have grabbed my attention. Boston’s David Pastrnak is on a seven-game point streak (7 goals, 17 points) and has had two or more points in six of his last seven games. Pasta, never afraid to take a shot on goal from anywhere on the ice, has registered four shots on goal or more in 13 of his last 15 games and five shots on goal or more in 10 of those games. Morgan Geekie has scored goals in three straight games and has four goals in seven games against the Sabres in his career.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-155) – 1 unit
1st-Period Over 1.5 goal (-130) – 1 unit
Morgan Geekie anytime goal (+275) – ¼ unit
David Pastrnak Over 1.5 points (+150) – ¼ unit
David Pastrnak Over 3.5 SOG (-155) – 2 units
David Pastrnak Over 4.5 SOG (+135) – ½ unit
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights (-125, 6)
10 p.m. ET
This is the marquee game of the night and will be broadcast nationally in the U.S. (Hulu, ESPN+) and Canada (Sportsnet regionals). The Stars and Golden Knights met Friday in Dallas with the Stars winning 4-3, thanks to a couple of game-saving stops by Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger.
Eight of the last nine regular-season meetings between the teams have been decided by one goal with Vegas winning five of the eight. Low-scoring games when the two play at T-Mobile Arena have been the norm. Six of the eight games have had five or fewer combined goals and seven of the eight have had six goals or fewer, including the Golden Knights’ 3-2 win in December. As always, shop around because some sportsbooks are posting 5.5 goals for the total.
Since I am anticipating a low-scoring game, when it comes to player props, I am going to stay away from playing goals, assist props and point props. I will target a couple of player shots-on-goal props. If it’s a Knights game, then a Pavel Dorofeyev shot-on-goal prop is on my bingo card. One Dallas player who caught my eye is Logan Stankoven. The Stars forward has 10 shots on goal (3, 7) in two games against Vegas this season.
NHL Predictions: Dallas Stars/Vegas Golden Knights Under 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 SOG (-105) – 2 units
Logan Stankoven Over 2.5 SOG (+135) – ¾ units
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken (-130, 5.5)
10 p.m. ET
The Kraken are coming off a 4-2 loss Monday night in Edmonton and now face a rested Ducks team in the second half of a back-to-back. Seattle is 0-7 this season on the back end of back-to-backs. With Joey Daccord starting Monday night in Edmonton, I expect Philipp Grubauer to get his first start in eight games tonight. Grubauer has lost his last five starts and has given up three goals or more in each of his starts.
Seattle opened as a -165 favorite and the line has moved toward the visiting Ducks as the Kraken are down to -130. Opening lines in the NHL are based on the No. 1 goalie being the starter, so once the books learn that the backup is now getting the start, the line gets adjusted.
These teams have met twice this season, with the Ducks winning the most recent meeting 5-2 in Seattle. Before that, Seattle had won eight straight against the Ducks.
Early goals have been a theme with both these teams. Anaheim games have had a goal scored in the opening 10 minutes in eight of their last nine games overall and 10 of their last 14 on the road. Kraken home games have had a goal scored in the opening 10 minutes in six of their last eight games and 11 of 14 overall.
Grubauer has given up three goals or more in his last five starts. The Ducks are 18-2 this season when scoring three goals or more.
I am targeting a slew of player props. The Ducks’ Mason McTavish has had back-to-back two-goal games and five in his last three games. Trevor Zegras scored twice against the Kraken this season and has six goals in 12 games versus Seattle.
Two Kraken players are on my radar. Matty Beniers has six goals in 10 games against the Ducks and three goals in five games versus Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal. Shane Wright has three goals in two games against Dostal.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
Anaheim Ducks ML (+110) – 1 unit
Anaheim Ducks TT over 2.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Zegras anytime goal (+340) – ¼ unit
McTavish anytime goal (+290) – ¼ unit
Beniers anytime goal (+240) – ¼ unit
Wright anytime goal (+420) – ¼ unit
