NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, May 13

Here are tonight’s NHL predictions, as well as a look at the current playoff betting trends:

 

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars (-150, 5.5)

Game Four: Dallas leads series 2-1

8 p.m. ET

There are players that get you to the playoffs and others who carry you through. In the case of Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, he is clearly a player who can get you to the playoffs but can’t be counted on to get you through the playoffs. The Winnipeg netminder has won just seven of his last 20 playoff games, and when it comes to playing on the road, he has just one win in his last 11 games. He has given up four goals or more nine times and five or more six times. The Jets have lost by three goals or more in nine of the 10 losses. Hellebuyck has a chance to end this streak tonight in game four at Dallas, but I have no reason to believe that his road woes will end tonight. 

The Stars scored three unanswered third-period goals, snapping a 2-2 deadlock, for a 5-2 win. While Jets fans are unhappy with the controversial game-winning goal, Jets players must move on and find a way to get the series even and regain home ice advantage. Mikko Rantanen scored a goal and two assists, has factored in 15 of the last 17 Dallas goals, and leads the playoffs with 18 points (nine goals, nine assists). Stars defenseman Thomas Harley has assists in three of his last four games. The Jets’ Nino Neiderreiter has goals in four of his last six games.

With the Jets coming off a loss in game three, I will play them to score a goal in the opening 20 minutes. Teams coming off a loss have scored a first-period goal in 34 of the 50 playoff games this season (see trends below).

Game Four Predictions:
Winnipeg Jets 1st Period Over ½ goal (-142) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+168) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars -2.5 goals (+300) – .25 units
Dallas Stars Team Total Over 3 (-115) – 2 units
Dallas Stars Team Total Over 3.5 (+130) – 1 unit
Mikko Rantanen anytime goal (+140) – .10 units
Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 pts (+172) – .10 units
Thomas Harley Over ½ assist (+112) – .10 units
Adam Lowry anytime goal (+550) – .10 units
Nino Neiderreiter anytime goal (+450) – .10 units

Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Numbers

Series – Round 11st Period BTTS1st Period Over/Under 2nd Period Over/Under3rd Period Over/UnderFull Game Over/Under
Carolina/
New Jersey		0-52-34-12-32-3
Tampa Bay/
Florida		3-23-23-23-24-1
Montreal/
Washington		1-42-33-24-12-3
Toronto/
Ottawa		2-42-43-33-33-3
Colorado/
Dallas		1-64-34-33-44-3
St. Louis/
Winnipeg		4-36-14-34-35-2
Minnesota/
Vegas		4-26-02-45-14-2
Los Angeles/
Edmonton		2-42-45-15-15-1
      
 Series – Round 21st Period BTTS1st Period Over/Under2nd Period Over/Under3rd Period Over/UnderFull Game Over/Under
Florida/
Toronto		3-13-12-22-13-0
Carolina/
Washington		0-40-41-33-11-3
Edmonton/
Vegas		3-13-11-33-12-2
Dallas/
Winnipeg		1-22-11-10-20-2

•  The team that lost the previous game scored a first period goal in the next game: 34-16

•   The team that lost the previous game scored the first goal of the next game: 32-18

•   The team that lost the previous game scored the first goal of the first period in the next game: 27-23

•    Home Teams are 42-20 overall, 10-5 in Round 2

•    Favorites are 38-24 overall, 8-7 in Round 2

•   40 of the 62 games have been decided by 2 or more goals, 8 of the 12 second round games have been decided by 2 or more goals

•    25 of the 38 wins by the favorite have been by two or more goals, and six of those were in Round 2

•    15 of the 24 wins by the Underdog have been by two or more goals, but 2-5 in Round 2

•    The full games are 38-23-1 (Over/Under), 6-7-1 in Round 2

TeamsTotal number of players with goalsTotal number of players with points
St. Louis1620
Edmonton1518
Carolina1418
Winnipeg1320
Vegas1318
Florida1318
Colorado1217
Toronto1118
Dallas1117
Los Angeles1116
Ottawa1114
Washington1018
Tampa815
Montreal717
Minnesota715
New Jersey611

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