Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers (-160, 6.5)
Edmonton leads series 2-1
8 p.m. ET
The Stars are coming off consecutive losses for the first time in this year’s playoffs and now find themselves down two games to one in the best-of-seven Western Conference Final. Sunday was their fifth loss in seven road playoff games this year, and they have been outscored 28-10 in those games. Dallas has been outplayed for seven (maybe eight) of the nine periods of the series, and since winning Game One, the Oilers have outscored Dallas 9-1. When you examine the Stars’ playoff history, getting this series back to even appears to be critical if they want to have a chance to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. The Stars have lost all 16 playoff series in their history when they’ve trailed three games to one, including the last two postseasons. Conversely, when they are tied at 2-2 in a series, they are 13-4 (when starting the series at home).
Here is another issue facing the Stars. Tonight is Game Four, which is when Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner becomes superhuman. He has won 12 of his last 13 playoff games (Game Four and beyond of a series), giving up two or fewer goals in 11 of the 12 wins with three shutouts, including the 1-0 overtime win in the Game Five clincher over the Golden Knights. It’s been a tale of two Stuart Skinners in this year’s postseason. He has given up just one goal in his four playoff wins (including three shutouts) and 20 goals in his four playoff losses. Since losing the first two games of their opening-round series to the Los Angeles Kings, the Oilers are an impressive 10-2.
On the injury front, Edmonton will be without forward Connor Brown, who suffered an upper-body injury on a punishing body check from the Stars’ Alex Petrovic. Viktor Arvidsson takes Brown’s spot in the lineup. Stars No. 1 center Roope Hintz is a game-time decision.
On to the plays for today. Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is coming off his third consecutive multi-point game, and he leads the team with seven points in the series (2 goals and 5 assists). Eight straight and 19 of the last 22 teams to win in this year’s playoffs have covered the -1.5 goals for the full game. With that being the case, I will play both teams at -1.5 goals and hope to come away with a small profit. Also on my bingo card for tonight will be a Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid parlay prop of Over 1.5 shots on goal. The “Nuge” has had at least two shots on goal in 10 of his last 12 games. Draisaitl was held without a shot on goal in the last game, the first time that he has not had at least two shots on goal this postseason. He was blanked twice during the regular season and both times followed up with two or more shots on goal. McDavid has had two shots on goal or more in all 14 playoff games this postseason.
After being held without a shot on goal in the opener of the Western Conference Final, the Stars’ Jason Robertson bounced back with seven shots on goal (5, 2) in the last two games and 16 in all. His -132 price to get two shots that hit the target is reasonable.
Early goals have been the theme in Oilers home games. Five of their six home games have seen the Over 1.5 goals make us money, and if you played just Edmonton to score two goals in the opening 20 minutes, that has cashed five times as well.
Game Four Predictions:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over ½ assist (+124) – .50 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins anytime goal (+270) – .10 units
Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 1.5 SOG (-102) – 1 unit
Jason Robertson Over 1.5 SOG (-132) – .50 units
Dallas Stars/Edmonton Oilers first-period Over 1.5 (-138) – 1 unit
Edmonton Oilers first-period Over 1.5 (+260) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+152) – .20 units
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+290) – .20 units
