NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, May 6:
Carolina Hurricanes (-135, 5.5) at Washington Capitals
Series Price:
Carolina Hurricanes (-180)
Washington Capitals (-150)
Game One
7 p.m. ET
Both these teams are coming off an opening-round series against one of the weaker first-round opponents. The New Jersey Devils provided very little pushback against Carolina, and the Montreal Canadiens couldn’t get enough pucks past the Capitals’ Logan Thompson, scoring two goals or fewer in four of the five games. When it comes to the battle of the goaltenders in this series, Thompson gets the check mark over both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. Rod Brind’Amour confirmed that Andersen, injured in Game Four, is good to go tonight. Andersen’s first-round numbers were elite, 3-1, 1.59 goals against average and a .936 save percentage, but he just hasn’t been able to maintain the consistency over a long playoff run.
Sportsbooks have little faith in Washington as Carolina is an overwhelming (-180) series favorite, which should come as no surprise. The Hurricanes were favored in all four games during the regular season against the Capitals, twice closing as a (-155) road favorite. It should be noted that the Canes lost both regular-season meetings in Washington (5-4, 3-1). For me, the value is all with Washington, and home teams are 32-15 in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs. The counterargument is that the betting favorite is 30-17. One of my concerns with the Hurricanes is their struggles to score at five-on-five. Against the Devils, Carolina was outscored 10-9 when the teams were at full and even strength. The Hurricanes flourished on special teams against the Devils, going 5-for-15 with the extra man and a perfect 15-for-15 on the penalty kill (and scored one short-handed goal). Keep in mind, the Devils were without three of their top defensemen against Carolina. Washington had just three power-play goals against Montreal in 13 opportunities (23.1%).
Time to dive into the prop plays. Carolina’s Jackson Blake plays on the Canes’ top line and No. 1 power-play unit, and we can get him at plus money to pick up just one point. Blake, along with Seth Jarvis (who plays on power play 2), led the Canes during the regular season with three goals against the Caps. For Washington, Connor McMichael and Anthony Beauvillier’s shots-on-goal props stand out. McMichael had three shots on goal in four of the five first-round games and had two or more shots on goal in three of the four regular-season games against the Caps. Beauvillier had two or more shots on goal in all but one game against the Canadiens and three or more three times.
Game One Predictions:
Jackson Blake anytime goal +270 – .10 units
Jackson Blake Over ½ point +100 – .25 units
Capitals moneyline +115 – .50 units
First-period Over 1.5 (-135) – .25 units
Full-game Over 5.5 (-135) -.25 units
Seth Jarvis anytime goal +180 – .10 units
Jakob Chychrun anytime goal +525 – .10 units
Connor McMichael anytime goal +330 – .10 units
Connor McMichael Over 1.5 shots on goal (-170) – .25 units
Connor McMichael Over 2.5 shot on goal (+185) – .10 units
Anthony Beauvillier Over 1.5 shots on goal (-120) – .25 units
Anthony Beauvillier Over 2.5 shots on goal (+270) – .10 units
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights (-135, 6.5)
Series Price:
Edmonton Oilers (-110)
Vegas Golden Knights (-110)
Game One
9:30 p.m. ET
“We remember what happened two years ago, we owe them one.” That’s what Connor McDavid said about the Golden Knights after the Oilers eliminated the Los Angeles Kings in the first round. Here we go, and it all gets underway tonight at “The Fortress” in Vegas. Edmonton opened as a small series and Game One favorite, but we have seen the line move to the Golden Knights, who are a favorite tonight, with the series sitting at pick-’em.
The goaltending matchup favors the Golden Knights. Vegas goalie Adin Hill has his name on the Stanley Cups, while Edmonton has turned to journeyman backup Calvin Pickard, who took over from Stuart Skinner in the first round and has won four consecutive games. How long Pickard can keep this up is anyone’s guess. The Knights arguably have the league’s best defensemen while the Oilers continue to be without their top blueliner, Mattias Ekholm. Pickard and the Oilers just had to give up one fewer goal than Kings goalie and Vezina finalist Darcy Kuemper. Edmonton did accomplish that, but Pickard still gave up three or more goals in three of his four starts (all wins). Giving up three goals to Vegas is going to be problematic. The Knights are 42-0 when scoring three goals or more in the postseason.
I do believe we will see lots of goals in this series. The last time these two met in the playoffs, five of the six games featured seven goals or more. The teams were 9-3 to the full-game Over in the first round, and the Knights were 6-0 to the first-period Over.
On to the player props. Corey Perry will be alongside McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the top line, and there is great value in his anytime goal prop. Evander Kane finished with three points in his last four games, and Evan Bouchard finished the first round leading the Oilers in goals with four. McDavid has three goals in five games against Hill. On the Vegas side, I am going to look further down the depth chart. Ivan Barbashev has three goals and six points in six career playoff games versus the Oilers. Reilly Smith has five points in six playoff games against Edmonton. Shea Theodore has a pair of goals in the playoffs, and both were the first goal of the game.
Game One Predictions:
First-period Over 1.5 (-165) – .25 units
Full-game Over 6.5 (-120) – .25 units
Vegas Golden Knights team total Over 3.5 (+100) – .50 units
Corey Perry anytime goal +290 – .10 units
Evander Kane Over ½ point +146 – .15 units
Evan Bouchard anytime goal +410 – .10 units
Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG +128 – .15 units
Reilly Smith Over ½ point +162 – .15 units
Ivan Barbashev Over ½ point +285 – .15 units
Ivan Barbashev anytime goal +300 – .15 units
Shea Theodore anytime goal +600 – .10 units
Shea Theodore first goal of the game +3400 – .10 units
