NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-7-1) at Boston Bruins (10-7-0)
Betting Line: Maple Leafs (-135, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET – TNT
These two teams met Saturday night in Toronto, with the Bruins upsetting the Maple Leafs as a (+170) road underdog. The Bruins have extended their win streak to six games and continue to be one of the early surprises of the NHL season. The Maple Leafs dropped back-to-back games on home ice over the weekend, following up the loss to Boston with a 5-4 loss to Carolina on Sunday. In that game, they gave up three unanswered goals in the final 23:09 and were outshot 22-2 in the third period. Sunday’s game marked the 11th consecutive game the Leafs went Over the full game total and are now 14-2 to the Over this season. The Leafs have scored four goals or more in seven of eight wins and given up four goals or more in seven of eight losses.
Back to Saturday’s game. David Pastrnak’s goal gave the B’s a 4-2 lead and ended the night for Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz. He now has four goals in four games against the Leafs netminder. Former Maple Leaf Fraser Minten scored his first goal against his Toronto in the win. Morgan Geekie and Charlie McAvoy both have points in three straight and four of five games and Viktor Arvidsson, who scored in Saturday’s win over Toronto, now has 11 points in 13 career games against the Leafs.
Despite having a better record than Toronto, the Bruins are the betting underdogs in this game. After losing their first two games as a home dog, the Bruins have won five straight as the home dog. If you believe that trends are your friends, then the regulation draw is live. The last four regular-season meetings in Boston have been decided in Overtime.
On to the player props for Toronto. William Nylander has been torching the opposition with seven goals and 12 assists on his 10-game point streak (seven multi-point games). Defenseman Morgan Rielly is on a five-game point/assist streak (seven), and we are getting a great plus money price on an assist (+164), and I will take it. Matthew Knies was all around the net on Saturday but did not score. He has five goals in eight games versus the Bruins.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Toronto Maple Leafs/Boston Bruins Over 6.5 (+104) – 1 unit
Morgan Rielly Over ½ assist (+164) – .25 units
William Nylander Over 1.5 points (+164) – .15 units
Morgan Geekie Over ½ point/McAvoy assist (+208) – .10 units
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+120) – .10 units
Viktor Arvidsson Over ½ point (+106) – .20 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+210) – .10 units
Nick Robertson anytime goal (+360) – .10 units
Fraser Minten anytime goal (+575) – .10 units
Los Angeles Kings (7-5-4) at Montreal Canadiens (10-3-2)
Betting Line: Canadiens (-115, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Kings visit the friendly confines of the Bell Centre in Montreal, where the Kings have won four straight and have won the last meetings with the Canadiens. The Kings scored four goals or more in five of the wins and covered the Puck Line in those five wins as well. Overall, the Kings have won three straight and five of their last six on the road and are seeking back-to-back wins for just the third time this season. They have yet to win three in a row.
In breaking down the numbers, LA has been better when they play “low event” hockey. Five of their seven wins have seen a combined five goals or less, while six of their nine losses have had a combined six goals or more and five times their games have had a combined seven or more goals. Kevin Fiala and Corey Perry lead the team with seven goals and have points in eight of ten. Perry, who missed the start of the season, has played in only 10 of the Kings’ 16 games. Perry has goals in six of his 10 games and points (11) in eight of ten.
The Canadiens have won four of their last six games, but more importantly for bettors, they have played seven straight full-game Overs. Montreal is a small (-120) home favorite. Over the last three-plus seasons, the Habs are 20-6 in the role as a home favorite (4-2 this year). The Kings are 3-1 this season as the road underdog. As always, shop around for the best price on sides and totals. If you like the Under, you can find a total of six at many places.
On to the props. The Kings’ Anze Kopitar (24 points in 26 games vs Montreal) and Adrian Kempe (eight goals,13 points vs Montreal) have routinely found the scoresheet when playing the Canadiens. Trevor Moore has six goals in 10 games against Montreal, and it’s impossible to pass up on Corey Perry, who is tied for the team lead in goals with seven and is facing one of his former teams. On the Montreal side, Nick Suzuki has four goals in seven games against likely starter, Darcy Kuemper. Noah Dobson has an assist in three straight, six of the last nine games. Kirby Dach has goals in three straight (four total).
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Noah Dobson Over ½ assist (+182) – .20 units
Adrian Kempe/Anze Kopitar point parlay (+101) – 1 unit
Nick Suzuki anytime goal (+220) – .10 units
Corey Perry Over ½ assist (+230) – .10 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+320) – .10 units
Trevor Moore anytime goal (+460) – .10 units
Kirby Dach anytime goal (+390) – .10 units
Dallas Stars (9-4-3) at Ottawa Senators (8-5-3)
Betting Line: Ottawa (-120, 6)
7 p.m. ET
Home ice advantage has been the key when these two teams square off. The Sens have won eight straight home games against the Dallas, while the Stars have won five of the last six in Dallas. Eight of the previous nine meetings in Ottawa have also gone Under the total. Wyatt Johnston and Miro Heiskanen have been leading the way for Dallas over the past five games. Johnston is currently on a five-game point streak (four goals, six assists), along with having a power play point in five consecutive games and leads the team in goals (10) and power play goals (seven). He has also scored the Stars’ first goals of the game in three of the last five games. Miro Heiskanen has eight assists in the last three games (2,2,4) and points in four consecutive games. Ottawa’s Michael Amadio has goals in four straight. David Perron has three goals in the four games he has gone up against Stars goalie Jake Oettinger. Oettinger is 2-1, with a 3.72 goals against average in his career vs the Sens.
Linus Ullmark gets the start for Ottawa tonight. Despite his losing record to Dallas in his career (3-4), he owns a 2.02 goals against average and a .931 save percentage.
The first period Over 1.5 goals has cashed in the last four Dallas games and is 7-2 in the last nine Ottawa games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Over (-124) – .10 units
David Perron anytime goal (+400) – .10 units
Michael Amadio anytime goal (+500) – .10 units
Ottawa Senators ML (-120) – .50 units
Dallas Stars/Ottawa Senators Under 6 (-120) – .50 units
Johnston point/Heiskanen assist (+162) – .50 units
San Jose Sharks (7-6-3) at Minnesota Wild (7-7-3)
Betting Line: Minnesota (-220, 6.5)
8 p.m. ET – HULU
These two teams meet for a second time this season. If the sequel can be anything like the first episode, we are in for a thriller tonight. San Jose had leads of 2-0, 4-2 and 5-3 before Minnesota tied the game with less than three minutes to play to send it to overtime. The Sharks didn’t touch the puck for the first three plus minutes of the extra session, and the first time they did, Macklin Celebrini’s breakaway goal gave the Sharks a 6-5 win. In his four career games against the Sharks, he has six goals and five assists. He sits tied in fourth in the NHL point race with 10 goals and 24 points and is currently on a three-game point streak (three goals, three assists) with a goal in all three games. All three of those goals were the Sharks’ first goal of the game, and twice it was not only San Jose’s first goal but the first goal of the game. Will Smith has points in four straight and seven of 10.
San Jose has won five of their last six games and have done so by beating the Avalanche, Devils, Florida Panthers, Winnipeg Jets and the Seattle Kraken. After giving up four or more goals in eight of their first 10 games, the Sharks have given up just one goal in each of their last three games (all victories). The Minnesota Wild are also feeling good about themselves, having won two straight and four of five, though the victories have come over the Flames, Islanders, Predators and Canucks, not the same murderers’ row the Sharks faced. Their one loss came to Carolina.
Thanks to my buddy @AdamsDigest for sharing this great stat with me. The Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov has six consecutive multi-point games against the Sharks, and five of those, he had three or more points, including each of the last four games. Marcus Johansson has points in nine straight and an assist in each of the last six games. Matt Boldy has six goals in four games against Sharks starting goalie, Alex Nedeljkovic.
Four of the last five meetings between the Wild and Sharks have had a combined seven or more goals, and the last two have gone past regulation.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Marcus Johansson Over ½ assist (+158) – .20 units
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 points (+140) – .20 units
Kirill Kaprizov Over 2.5 points (+470) – .10 units
Matt Boldy/Mats Zuccarello point parlay (+101) – .25 units
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+135) – .10 units
Will Smith Over ½ assist (+158) – .20 units
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+165) – .10 units
Macklin Celebrini 1st Sharks goal (+480) – .10 units
Anaheim Ducks (11-3-1) at Colorado Avalanche (10-1-5)
Betting Line: Colorado (-240, 6.5)
9:30 p.m. ET – TNT
We have the potential for an old-fashioned shootout with the top two offenses in the league, both averaging over four goals per game. Both teams enter on hot streaks: the Ducks on a seven-game heater and Colorado has won three straight. Anaheim is coming off wins on back-to-back nights over Vegas and Winnipeg. The Ducks have cashed the full game Over in four consecutive games and 10 of 15 overall and have scored four or more goals in 10 of their 11 wins. Four times this season, the Ducks have put up a seven-spot. Cutter Gauthier’s 11 goals lead Anaheim and are good enough for third in the NHL. Leo Carlsson is riding a 10-game point streak with eight goals and 19 points. His 25 points this season trails only the Avs’ Nathan MacKinnon, who leads all players with 29 points.
MacKinnon has had quite the run of late himself, with 9 points in his last two games (four goals, five assists) and eight goals and 11 assists on his current nine-game point streak. The Avalanche have yet to lose at home in regulation (4-0-2) and are 4-2 in the role as the home favorite. Anaheim is 5-2 as a road dog this season. The Avalanche have dominated the Ducks over the years, winning four straight, seven of eight and 16 of the last 20 contests overall. They have also won three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in Denver. Even with those dominant numbers, there is no way I could wager on Colorado on the Money Line (-240), but I can see an argument to play the Avalanche on the Puck Line (-1.5 +104). I do like the Over in this game, but I also see a path to the Ducks scoring three goals tonight, so I am going to play both teams to score three goals (+154).
This game is the definition of the Cheesecake Factory menu of prop plays. Last night I played McDavid Over 1.5 points (-112). Tonight, we get MacKinnon at a slightly better price, and I will be on MacKinnon. MacKinnon has three goals in three games against Lukas Dostal. Ross Colton, who plays on the Avs second line, has four goals in three games versus the Ducks netminder.
The Ducks’ Chris Kreider has a point in four of the last five games and seven of 10. Jacob Trouba has cashed his shots on goal prop (Over 1.5) in each of the last six games and nine of the last 10.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Both teams score 3 or more goals (+154) – 1 unit
Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 points (-112) – .25 units
Chris Kreider Over ½ point (+100) – .15 units
Jacob Trouba Over 1.5 SOG (+102) – .15 units
Makar/MacKinnon/Carlsson assist prop (+320) – .20 units
