NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
St. Louis Blues (6-9-4) at Toronto Maple Leafs (8-9-2)
Betting Line: St. Louis (+110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) – Total 5.5 (Over, -135)
7 p.m. ET
The Maple Leafs are mired in a five-game losing skid. They are without several key players (Auston Matthews, Anthony Stolarz, Nic Roy, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo), forcing heavy reliance on depth players like Matthew Knies (five goals, 17 assists in 19 games). Coach Craig Berube has urged William Nylander (eight goals, 18 assists) to shoot more rather than pass. The talented forward has gone consecutive games without a shot on goal for the first time in seven seasons.
St. Louis has dropped three of its last four but have won seven of their last eight trips to Toronto. Both teams trend toward high-scoring affairs—Toronto’s games have gone Over 5.5 goals in 13 of their last 14, while Blues games have eclipsed the total of 5.5 in eight of their last 13. The Blues have traded games going Under and Over the full game total for seven consecutive games and are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. If you subscribe to “trends are your friends,” we have one more reason to play the full game Over. The first period Over 1.5 goals has also been profitable. Blues games have cashed the first period Over 1.5 goals in four straight and 10 of the last 13 games. Maple Leafs games have cashed the first period Over in eight of the last nine and 10 of the last 12.
Let’s discuss player props. The Blues’ Pavel Buchnevich (17 points in 18 games vs. Toronto) and Robert Thomas (seven assists in eight games vs Toronto) make up two-thirds of the Blues’ top forward line and are also together on the top power play unit. I will parlay the two for a point to get us a good plus money price. Defenseman Colton Parayko has two goals (on four shots) in two games against Leafs goalie Joseph Woll.
On the Toronto side, with Auston Matthews out, John Tavares takes over as the number one center. He has scored four goals in his last five games, but I will target his shots on goal prop (Over 2.5) that he has cashed in consecutive games, four of five, and eight of ten. There is something about that St. Louis Blues jersey that gets Maple Leafs forward Bobby McMann all excited. He has scored four goals in four games against St. Louis. McMann has also had at least two shots on goal in three consecutive games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Over 1.5 (-128) – .50 units
St. Louis Blues/Toronto Maple Leafs Over 5.5 (-135) – .50 units
Regulation Draw (+330) – .25 units
Buchnevich/Thomas point parlay (+159) – .25 units
Colton Parayko anytime goal (+900) – .10 units
John Tavares Over 2.5 SOG (-130) – .25 units
Bobby McMann Over 1.5 SOG (-120) – .20 units
Bobby McMann anytime goal (+320) – .10 units
Seattle Kraken (9-4-5) at Detroit Red Wings (11-7-1)
Betting Line: Seattle (+140) at Detroit (-165) – Total 5.5 (Over, -130)
7 p.m. ET
The Seattle Kraken come into Detroit tonight riding a two-game winning streak. They will take their third shot at winning three in a row for the first time this season. The Wings are coming off a 2-1 win over the Rangers Sunday night in a game that almost ended in a full-scale brawl as Rangers goalie Jonathan Quick took exception to Detroit’s Mason Appleton firing the puck into the empty net after the final buzzer sounded. As a fan, I feel cheated that we didn’t see a line brawl. Detroit has won two of their last three games, but they have not won back-to-back games over their past seven.
The Kraken sit third in the Pacific Division but have won as many games as they have lost (9-4-5) and have a negative goal differential (-1). They have played well at home (6-1-3) and while they are “NHL 500” on the road (3-3-2), from a betting standpoint, they have a losing record (3-5). Though I am backing Detroit tonight, I am a little concerned by the fact that they are 1-4 as the home betting favorite, but 5-0 as a home underdog.
Wings head coach, Todd McLellan’s move to bump Alex DeBrincat to the top line has worked quite well. The trio of DeBrincat (five goals, one assist), Dylan Larkin (two goals, two assists) and Lucas Raymond (one goal, six assists) have combined for eight goals and nine assists in the three games since they have become the team’s top line.
For you history buffs, these two teams have squared off eight times since the Kraken came into the league. All eight games have had at least six goals. Six games have had a combined seven or more goals, and four times the two have combined for eight or more goals. Five of the eight contests have gone past regulation, and with November being “overtime month,” it’s one more reason to play the regulation draw. For those who have not been following along, I am playing every game to go to overtime unless the numbers start to dictate otherwise. 42 of the 125 games this month have gone past regulation. If you played all 125 games to go to OT, you would be up 53.90 units.
On to the player props. Alex DeBrincat has had at least four shots on goal in four consecutive games, while Dylan Larkin has had at least three shots on goal in eight straight, and Moritz Seider has had two or more in nine straight. There is a “heavy tax” on Larkin and Seider to go Over their totals today, so I will parlay them for “plus money.” Jaden Schwartz is on a mini two-game point streak and leads the team with five goals and eight points in road games this season. Vince Dunn has 10 assists in 13 career games against the Red Wings. His assist prop on its own (+164) is a great value. I am going to get greedy and parlay the Dunn assist prop with a Schwartz point. Finally, Eeli Tolvanen has goals in consecutive games, plays the top power play, and he is being offered at a great plus price.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Regulation Draw (+330) – .25 units
Raymond point/Wings Money Line (-109) – 1 unit Seattle Kraken/Detroit Red Wings Over 5.5 (-130) – 1 unit Alex DeBrincat Over 3.5 SOG (+125) – .20 units
Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 SOG/Seider Over 1.5 SOG (+146) – .20 units
Dunn assist/Schwartz point (+346) – .20 units
Eeli Tolvanen anytime goal (+340) – .10 units
New York Islanders (10-7-2) at Dallas Stars (12-4-3)
Betting Line: Islanders (+155) at Dallas Stars (-180) – Total 6 (Over, -120)
8 p.m. ET
This will be stop number six on the Islanders’ seven-game road trip that has seen the upstart Islanders win the first four games (three in overtime) before losing on Sunday at Colorado, 4-1. Colorado scored their last two goals (the third goal was an empty-netter) in the final minute. I hold an Islanders futures ticket on Over 83.5 points, so while I am not surprised that they have had a good start, I didn’t have them on a 95-point pace.
Rookie Matthew Schaefer leads all NHL defensemen in goals (seven), and “books” are offering his points prop at plus money. Sign me up! His teammate, Emil Heineman, not only has goals in three straight but has scored the game’s first goal in all three games. He scored goals in four of the last six games and points in six of the last seven.
The Dallas Stars have won five straight and six of their last seven games. The Stars have been paced by their trio up front of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen, along with defenseman Miro Heiskanen. Hintz has points in six straight. Robertson has six goals on a three-game goal streak with 19 shots on goal (6,7,6). Miro Heiskanen has a goal and 11 assists over the past seven games. Three of the last five meetings have gone to overtime between the two teams.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Regulation Draw (+350) – .25 units
Emil Heineman anytime goal (+325) – .10 units
Emil Heineman Islanders’ first goal (+900) – .05 units
Emil Heineman 1st goal of the game (+1800) – .05 units
Matthew Schaefer Over ½ point (+125) – .25 units
Miro Heiskanen assist/Stars Money Line (+144) – 1 unit
Jason Robertson anytime goal (+135) – .10 units
Jason Robertson Over 3.5 SOG (-108) – .50 units
Jason Robertson Over 4.5 SOG (+205) – .25 units
Columbus Blue Jackets (10-7-2) at Winnipeg Jets (11-7-0)
Betting Line: Columbus (+150) at Winnipeg (-180) – Total 6.5 (Under, -115)
8 p.m. ET
No deep dive into this matchup tonight. It’s a scheduling loss in my opinion for Columbus. They come to Winnipeg on the second half of a back-to-back, combined with it being three games in four days. They also must clear Canadian customs. It all adds up to the Jackets not getting to their hotel till close to 3 a.m.
I am never crazy about laying (-180), and with the overtime trend, I don’t want to play the Jets in regulation, so I will get creative. I will play the Jets money line and parlay that with the Calgary Flames alternate team total, Under 3.5 goals. The Flames have scored four goals or more in only three of their 20 games this season. Tonight, the Flames are at Chicago and face a Hawks team that shut them out 4-0 in Calgary earlier this month. The Jets’ Josh Morrissey has an assist in four straight and eight of the last 10 games. The Jackets’ Kirill Marchenko has an assist in six straight and nine of the last 10 games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Winnipeg Jets ML/Calgary Flames TT under 3.5 (+131) – 2 units
Josh Morrissey Over ½ assist (-110) – .50 units
Kirill Marchenko Over ½ assist (+128) – .25 units
Regulation Draw (+350) – .25 units
New York Rangers (10-8-2) at Vegas Golden Knights (8-4-6)
Betting Line: Rangers (+115) at Golden Knights (-135) – Total 5.5 (Over, -130)
10 p.m. ET
Both the Rangers and Golden Knights sit at 22 points. New York has done most of their damage on the road, boasting the NHL’s best road record (9-1-1). The Golden Knights return home after a mini two-game road trip, picking up three of four points. After tonight, they head back out for three on the road. Vegas has just one win in their previous six home games.
Igor Shesterkin is the expected starter for the Blueshirts tonight. He is 2-2 with a 2.58 goals against average versus the Golden Knights. Neither Vegas goalie, Akira Schmid or Carl Lindbom have faced the Rangers in the regular season. I do lean to the first period Over 1.5 goals. Vegas has been one of the best first period Over teams in the NHL. They are on a 5-1 run to the first period Over and 13-5 on the season.
I do like a slew of player props in this one. We cashed on Sunday with Mika Zibanejad to score the first Rangers goal on Sunday, and I am back at it tonight. The Rangers forward has scored the team’s first goal in two of the last three, three of the last four, and six times this season. He also has 10 goals in 14 games against the Golden Knights. Vincent Trocheck has 14 points in 14 games versus the VGK, and J.T. Miller has 20 points in 19 games against the Golden Knights. For Vegas, Ivan Barbashev has four goals in six games against Igor Shesterkin.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Over 1.5 (-138) – 1 unit
Ivan Barbashev anytime goal (+300) – .10 units
Vincent Trocheck Over ½ point (+110) – .20 units
JT Miller point/Fox assist (+159) – .10 units
Mika Zibanajed anytime goal (+220) – .10 units
Mika Zibanajed to score Rangers 1st goal (+700) – .05 units
Regulation Draw (+340) – .25 units
