NHL Predictions – Tuesday, November 5:
After just two games on Monday, the NHL ramps back up tonight with 22 of the 32 teams in action. The Carolina Hurricanes will put their six-game winning streak on the line when they host the Philadelphia Flyers. Three players are riding 12-game point streaks into tonight’s slate. Colorado’s Cale Makar is tied atop the scoring race with 21 points. Teammate Nathan MacKinnon is just a point back with 20, while Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor has 19 points. A battle of division rivals takes place in Toronto, where the Bruins look to make it nine straight regulation wins over the Maple Leafs, who will be without Auston Matthews (upper body). Hope you enjoy the night on ice.
Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs (-155; 6)
7 p.m. ET
Breaking news after the Maple Leafs’ morning skate is that captain Auston Matthews will miss tonight’s game with an upper-body injury and is listed as day-to-day.
The Bruins appeared to have cleaned their game up defensively coming off back-to-back shutouts against the Flyers and Kraken over the weekend, but for the second time this season controversy around a Bruins star player has captured the headlines. In Sunday’s win over the Kraken, Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery, frustrated with what he perceived as a poor effort from star winger David Pastrnak, benched Pasta for the entire third period. Earlier this season, Montgomery had a heated exchange with captain Brad Marchand on the bench. In each situation, the player owned his poor play.
Both Marchand and Pastrnak have thrived against the Maple Leafs in their careers. Each scored goals in the Bruins’ 4-3 overtime win on Oct. 26 with the captain scoring the game-winner. Marchand has 20 goals and 54 points in 54 career games versus the Leafs while Pasta has 20 goals and 38 points in 29 games versus Toronto.
The Maple Leafs return home after a pair of losses on the road. The Leafs lost for the second time this season to the St. Louis Blues on Saturday and came up short in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild. Anthony Stolarz gets the start and Max Domi replaces Matthews at center on the top line between Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies.
Marner, who factored in all three goals in the previous meeting, has 10 goals and 27 assists in 25 games versus the B’s.
Boston has won eight straight regular-season meetings between the teams.
NHL Predictions: Pastrnak anytime goal (+130) – 1 unit
Marchand Over ½ assist (+124) – 1 unit
Marner Over ½ assist (-135) – 1 unit
Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes (-310; 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Hurricanes’ six-game winning streak is the longest current roll in the NHL. The Hurricanes host a Flyers team that has won two of their last three games but scored just four goals in the process. Philadelphia goalie Samuel Ersson had to leave Saturday’s game versus Boston. Ersson suffered a lower-body injury 7:36 into the first period. He did not practice on Monday. That leaves the goaltending duties to Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov, who have struggled this season. I am concerned that this could be a letdown game against a weak Flyers team that is playing with AHL-caliber goalies.
The Canes have won nine of the last 10 meetings, including seven by one goal and four of the seven needing to be settled in overtime. Five of the teams’ last six meetings have had a combined five goals or fewer.
We like to say that trends are your friends until they are not. Carolina falls into the trend of a home betting favorite of (-200+) coming off a win. Those favorites are 11-1 on the moneyline, have scored four or more goals in 11 of the 12 games and those favorites have covered the puck line (-1.5 goals) in six consecutive games.
Carolina’s Martin Necas has 18 points in his last nine games. He has had multi-point games in six of his last eight. The Canes’ Jack Roslovic has been a shot-on-goal machine of late. In his last five games, he has recorded three, six, three, one and four shots on goal.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 goals (-118) – 1 unit
Carolina TT Over 3.5 (-155) – 1 unit
Martin Necas Over ½ assist (+105) – 1 unit
Jack Roslovic Over 1.5 SOG (-135) – 1 unit
Jack Roslovic Over 2.5 SOG (+230) – ½ unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-170; 6) at St. Louis Blues
7 p.m. ET
The Lightning limp into tonight’s game having given up 12 goals in losing their past two games and could be without No. 1 center Brayden Point. It is already the Lightning’s second two-game losing streak of the season. Still, I look at tonight’s game in St. Louis as a good opportunity for the Lightning to expose a Blues team that’s missing key players.
The Blues are already without their top center, Robert Thomas, and defenseman, Nick Leddy, and on Saturday lost another key member of their blue line as Philip Broberg will be out four to six weeks with a lower-body injury. That leaves St. Louis a little thin on the back end with 39-year-old veteran Ryan Suter getting bumped up to the top pair alongside Colton Parayko.
History is on the Lightning’s side in this matchup. They have won four of the last five meetings and scored four or more goals in all four wins. For the season, Tampa has scored four or more goals in five of its seven wins and seven of its 13 games.
NHL Predictions: Tampa ML (-170) – 1 unit
Tampa -1.5 goals (+142)
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders (-142; 6)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Penguins are out to win three in a row for the first time this season. Last week, Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby was openly critical of himself and his slow start to the season with just one goal in the first 10 games. Like the leader he is, Crosby stepped up with a pair of two-goal games and a three-assist night last week. At one point, Crosby had scored four consecutive goals over two games for the Pens. No reason to believe he slows down tonight against and Isles team that he has 41 goals and 134 points against in 86 career games.
Tonight, Pittsburgh faces a banged-up Islanders team without two of their key forwards in Matt Barzal and Anthony Duclair (both on IR) as well as defensemen Adam Pelech (IR), Alexander Romanov (upper body) and Mike Reilly (upper body). The Islanders have lost four of their last five games, and all four losses have been by two goals or more. Home ice has not been kind to the Isles, who have just one win in five home games. Their 10 points to start the season is only one better than Montreal, Philadelphia and Buffalo, who are all tied for last in the Eastern Conference standings.
NHL Predictions: Sidney Crosby Over ½ assist (-115) – 1 unit
Sidney Crosby anytime goal (+140) – ½ unit
Pittsburgh Penguins ML (+120) – ½ unit
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 goals (+260) – ½ unit
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild (-170; 6)
8 p.m. ET
The Kings come into tonight fresh off an impressive 3-0 win at Nashville on Monday night. The inconsistent Kings have traded wins and losses their past five games and face a Minnesota team that has won three straight and seven of its last eight. With Darcy Kuemper in goal on Monday night for L.A., expect David Rittich to get the start tonight for the Kings. Rittich is 3-3-0 on the season with an .870 save percentage. Four of his starts and three of his wins have come against the league’s bottom feeders (San Jose twice, Anaheim and Montreal). In his two starts against Toronto and Vegas, he is 0-2 and surrendered 10 goals (six to Vegas, four to Toronto).
It’s not a great spot for the Kings, who are on the back end of a back-to-back and three games in four nights.
NHL Prediction: Minnesota ML (-170) – 1 unit
Utah HC at Winnipeg Jets (-205; 6)
8 p.m. ET
After busting out of the gates to win their first three games of the season, Utah has just two wins in its last nine games. It doesn’t get any easier tonight with a visit to 11-1 Winnipeg.
The Jets fall into the sweet spot of a home favorite (-200+) off a win. Teams in this spot are 11-1 on the moneyline and have scored four goals or more in 11 of the 12 games this season. Utah HC has given up four goals or more in four of six road games and seven of 12 games overall. The Jets have scored four or more goals nine times this season. The Jets’ Kyle Connor is on heater with nine assists in his past six games and nine goals and 10 assists on his current 12-game point streak.
One concern in betting on the Jets tonight is that they are not going to go 81-1 this season. They will lose again at some point. Like Edmonton on Monday night against New Jersey, this could be a flat spot for Winnipeg. After tonight’s game, the Jets have games against the Avalanche, Stars, Rangers, Lightning and Panthers twice.
One final note. The Jets and Utah HC have combined for nine overtime games this season (Winnipeg 4, Utah 5)
NHL Predictions: Utah HC (+170) – ½ unit
Winnipeg Jets TT Over 3.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Kyle Connor Over ½ assist (+100) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+330) – ¼ unit
Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche (-180; 6.5)
9 p.m. ET
No deep dive here. There is only one play in this game and that is the first period Over 1.5 goals. The Kraken are coming off back-to-back shutout losses to Ottawa and Boston. One of our favorite trends of the season, even though it wasn’t kind to us on Monday night, is to play the first period Over 1.5 goals when a team has been shut out in the previous game. The trend is 17-4 on the season.
NHL Prediction: Seattle/Colorado 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-135) – 2 units
