NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Wednesday, April 30:
Here are Wednesday’s NHL predictions.
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals (-185, 6)
Game Five (Capitals lead Series 3-1)
7 p.m. ET
The Montreal Canadiens are facing the brink of elimination as they travel to Washington for Game Five. With number one goalie Samuel Montembeault still not available, Jakub Dobes will make his second consecutive start for the Habs. Dobes gave Montreal a chance to win in Game Four as the Canadiens had 2-1 lead going to the third period. The Capitals tied the game early in the period and scored the game winner with under four minutes to play, and then they closed it out with a pair of empty-netters.
I have been riding the trend of playing the team coming off a loss to score the first goal of the game (19-10) and/or just to score a first period goal (20-9) but the numbers with Dobes giving up the first goal of the game supersede the playoff trend. This season, Jakub Dobes (including playoffs) has given up the first goal in 14 of his 16 starts.
The Capitals did a good job limiting both Cole Caufield (two shots on goal) and Juraj Slafkovsky (one shot on goal), though both made the most of their opportunities, each scoring a goal. Caufield and Slafkovsky have each scored in back-to-back games. One other note on the Canadiens is that Patrik Laine will be a healthy scratch for tonight’s game.
On the Washington side, it looks like Aliaksei Protas will make his return to the lineup after being out since April 4. Protas had a breakthrough season, scoring 30 goals. Dylan Strome leads the Capitals in points (seven) and assists (five) and we can get a decent price on his Over ½ assist prop.
Finally, I will grab the third period Over 2 goals (-135). This series has had 4,4,1 and 2 goals in the third period.
NHL Predictions:
Capitals to score the 1st goal of the game in regulation (-145) – 1 unit
3rd period Over 2 goals (-135) – .50 units
Cole Caufield Over 2.5 SOG/Slafkovsky Over 1.5 SOG parlay (+127) – .25 units
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+180) – .15 units
Juraj Slafkovsky anytime goal (+290) – .15 units
Aliaksei Protas anytime goal (+290) – .15 units
Dylan Strome Over ½ assist (-110) – .15 units
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets (-180, 5.5)
Game Five (Series tied 2-2)
9:30 p.m. ET
This is a series that has been dominated by the home team. For St. Louis, they will need to change that narrative if they want to win this best-of-seven opening round matchup against the Jets. It’s always loud and raucous in Winnipeg as Jets fans all come dressed in white for the Winnipeg “white out.” The Jets’ Kyle Connor, for one, loves to play in front of the home crowd. Connor has eight goals and 12 points in his last 10 home games. Captain Mark Scheifele, who scored a goal in each of the first two home games, has 23 career playoff goals (franchise best).
One of the things that stands out to me with the St. Louis Blues is they don’t seem fazed by Jets goalie and league MVP candidate, Connor Hellebuyck. The Blues have scored three or more goals in all but one of the games in this series, and we are getting Over 2.5 goals at “plus money.” Sign me up for that wager. The Blues’ Cam Fowler leads the Blues on the power play with five points. Jordan Kyrou, who led the Blues with 36 goals in the regular season, is tied for the team lead in the playoffs (two), both coming on the power play.
NHL Predictions:
Blues TT Over 2.5 (+114) – 1 unit
Kyle Connor anytime goal (+130) – .20 units
Mark Scheifele anytime goal (+170) – .20 units
Cam Fowler Over ½ power play point (+330) – .15 unit
Jordan Kyrou anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Jordan Kyrou Over ½ power play point (+600) – .10 units
