NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Wednesday, May 14
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Florida Panthers (-145, 5.5) at Toronto Maple Leafs
Series tied 2-2
7 p.m. ET
When it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I am sure you know the saying, “you are never in trouble until you lose a home game.” Both the Panthers and Maple Leafs have defended their home ice through the first four games of the series, entering tonight’s pivotal Game Five. It appears that there are lineup changes in store for Toronto with Nicholas Robertson and David Kampf coming in, and two of Calle Jarnkrok, Bobby McMann and Pontus Holmberg coming out. With Maple Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz still sidelined, Joseph Woll will again start between the pipes for Toronto.
Florida winning Game Four means that I will be betting on Toronto to score first tonight. Teams playing at home following a loss in round two have scored the first goal of the game in six of the seven games in which this scenario has come into play. In four of the six games, that goal has been scored in the first period. The two games where the home team scored first, but not in the first period, both took place in the Capitals/Hurricanes series. The Maple Leafs have scored a first period goal in three of the four games of this series, and twice scoring the first goal of the game.
I will pass on both the side and the total and will stay with the player props. Brad Marchand’s five-game point streak was snapped in Game Four of this series, but I will go back to the well with Marchand, who ranks third all-time in playoff points against Toronto (33 points/32 games, 12 goals, 21 assists). Aaron Ekblad has assists in three consecutive games and eight points (one goal, seven assists) in eight career playoff games versus Toronto.
Lastly, tonight will be the sixth time we have a game involving a team being shut out in their previous game. In the previous five shutouts in the playoffs, the next game has gone Over the total in all five games.
Game Five Predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs to score 1st goal (+105) – 1 unit
Panthers/Leafs Over 5.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+220) – .25 units
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+300) – .25 units
Aaron Ekblad Over ½ assist (+160) – .25 units
Matthews/Tavares Over 2.5 SOG parlay (+154) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights (-130, 6.5)
Edmonton leads series 3-1
9:30 p.m. ET
I have echoed the words from NHL players countless times that momentum in the playoffs doesn’t carry over from game to game, but from shift to shift within a game. If you didn’t believe me before, seeing how Edmonton rebounded in Game Four after losing Game Three with 0.4 seconds left in regulation is all the proof you need. Give the Oilers credit. They scored 87 seconds into the opening period and then went up 2-0 for the second consecutive game. They would go on to a 3-0 win. Edmonton was by far the better team in Game Four, but at the same time, I can’t remember the last time I saw the Knights look so awful. They appeared slow and struggled to generate scoring chances. In fact, Stuart Skinner, who earned the shutout, was named only the third star of the game. It’s not often that a goalie who pitches a shutout does not earn first or at the very least second star honors. Skinner has now won 11 of his last 12 starts in Games Four through Seven of a playoff series, with his only loss coming in Game Seven of the Cup final to Florida. The Oilers’ netminder has given up two or fewer goals in 10 of the 11 wins and has a pair of shutouts.
Home ice advantage has prevailed in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, with the home teams winning 43 of the 63 games, but the Knights are 0-2 at T-Mobile in this series and 2-3 overall in the postseason. Of the eight remaining teams in the playoffs, Vegas is the only one with a losing record on home ice. The other seven teams all have one or fewer losses.
Here is how I am going to approach this game. The Oilers have scored at least three goals in all four games of the series and five of the six games against the Los Angeles Kings. Conversely, the Knights’ offense has dried up for the most part. Jack Eichel, Tomáš Hertl, Ivan Barbashev, and Pavel Dorofeyev have yet to find the back of the net in this series. That will have to change quickly for the Knights to extend the series to a Game Six. Vegas does fit the trend of playing a team (as well as the home team) off a loss to score the first goal of the following game. I am concerned with Skinner’s propensity not to give up goals once a series gets to four games.
As in the Toronto game, we have another game involving a team being shut out in their previous game. I will be on the Over in this game as well.
Game Five Predictions:
Oilers Team Total Over 3 (-140) – 2 units
Oilers/Knights Over 6.5 (-125) – 1 unit
