Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars (-125, 6.5)
Series Price:
Edmonton Oilers (-118)
Dallas Stars (-102)
8 p.m. ET
It is a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final as the Dallas Stars will look to turn the tables on the Edmonton Oilers, who took them out in six games. The Oilers seek a second straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Despite having home ice advantage for the series, the Dallas Stars are a small underdog, though they are the betting favorite in tonight’s opening game of the series. The Stars’ Game One win over Winnipeg in the previous round was their first Game One win in 10 tries.
The Stars enter the series with the 11th-ranked offense and the only one of the four remaining playoff teams to score an average of less than three goals per game (2.62). Dallas scored just 12 goals against Winnipeg in their six-game series, with seven of the goals coming from Mikko Rantanen (four) and Mikael Granlund (three). Five of the Stars’ 12 goals came on the power play. A power play that went 0 for 9 in last year’s series.
It’s going to be tough sledding for Dallas if they don’t receive any goal production from Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment and Jason Robertson, who had a combined zero goals against the Jets. Robertson led the Stars in the regular season with 35 goals. Duchene was second in goals (30) and first in points (82), Marchment had 22 goals, and Seguin, limited to 20 games due to injury, had just nine goals. Ultimately, I believe Dallas is going to have to find a way to win a game or two by a score of 5-4 to win this series. If they can’t find a way to generate offense, then goalie Jake Oettinger is going to have to be the Stars’ best player.
The Oilers have made their way to round three of the Stanley Cup Playoffs without having to rely on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to score every game. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy summed it up best after his team was eliminated by the Oilers. “If I told you that we are going to hold McDavid and Draisaitl to three goals and eight points in the series and lose, you wouldn’t believe me.” Sixteen different Oilers scored a goal, and 19 different players recorded at least one point. The Panthers lead the way with 17 different goal scorers and 21 players with a point. During the regular season, the Oilers were a (-20) when Connor and Leon were not on the ice. In this year’s playoffs, they are (+7), outscoring the opposition, 16-9.
Zach Hyman has scored 144 goals over the last four regular seasons. He is one of nine Oilers players with three goals or more in the playoffs. But Hyman is making his mark on the opposition in trying to inflict pain. Hyman, who had just 59 hits in 73 regular-season games, has 78 hits in 11 playoff games. If you have a sportsbook that offers “hits,” Hyman is your man.
On to the prop plays. Dallas Stars’ coach, Pete DeBoer put his forward lines into a blender at practice yesterday. Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen form the top line. Granlund has great value for an anytime goal (+330). I do believe we will see Jason Robertson regain his scoring touch in this series. Robertson had a hat trick against Edmonton when they played the Oilers in late March. He has 11 goals in 18 games (regular season and playoffs) against Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner.
Mikko Rantanen has 27 points in 26 career games against the Oilers (regular season and playoffs). He has six points in four career playoff games against Edmonton. Though he has slowed down lately (just one assist in the final three games against Winnipeg), I believe that has a lot to do with the fact that he was playing too many minutes (all three games over 23 minutes). Dallas is back to playing the traditional 12 forwards and six defensemen after going with 11 forwards and seven defensemen to ease Miro Heiskanen back into game shape. In the three playoff games that Rantanen played less than 18 minutes, he had three, four and three points. He had two other games playing less than 20 minutes but more than 18 minutes, and he had zero and four points. But in the five games playing over 20 minutes, he had four games without a point and one game with just a single point. Thomas Harley has an assist in five of the last seven games.
On the Edmonton side, there is a great deal of value in Kasperi Kapanen and Vasily Podkolzin to score a goal. Both are playing alongside Leon Draisaitl. As of now, I am only seeing goal props, but if a point prop or assist prop becomes available, I will jump on those as well. Evan Bouchard is second on the team with eight assists and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is third with six. The “Nuge” will be on a line with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, along with being on the top power play unit. Big plus money for an assist tonight is too good to pass up.
Game One Predictions:
Jason Robertson anytime goal (+270) – .20 units
Mikael Granlund anytime goal (+360) – .20 units
Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 points (+168) – .20 units
Thomas Harley Over ½ assist (+134) – .20 units
Wyatt Johnston first goal of the game (+1300) – .10 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over ½ assist (+172) – .20 units
Evan Bouchard Over ½ assist (+110) – .20 units
Vasily Podkolzin anytime goal (+1000) – .20 units
Kasperi Kapanen anytime goal (+800) – .20 units
Zach Hyman first goal of the game (+1600) – .10 units
