NHL Predictions – Wednesday, November 13:
Looking forward to a great night of hockey. Alexander Ovechkin continues his quest to become the NHL’s all-time goal leader. Sidney Crosby and the Penguins look to avenge an embarrassing 7-1 home loss to the Dallas Stars on Monday. And the Los Angeles Kings will have their hands full with Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche. Finally, three of the five games tonight involve a team that was shut out in its previous game. One of our favorite system plays is alive, and I have uncovered another very profitable element of the system. Remember, it’s never Under, until it’s Over. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals (-140; 6)
7:30 p.m. ET
The injury to Maple Leafs captain, Auston Matthews, denies hockey fans the opportunity for a matchup between Matthews and Alexander Ovechkin, two of the most prolific goal scorers in the game. Ovechkin entered the season 42 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals. Ovi is off to a blistering start with 10 goals in the Capitals’ first 14 games and is now just 32 goals shy of breaking the “Great One’s” record. Most thought he wouldn’t be able to break the record until next season. Ovechkin is on pace for 58 goals, his highest total since scoring 65 in the 2007-08 season. How about this nugget from Luke Fox who covers the NHL for Sportsnet.ca. Dylan Strome has assisted on all 10 Ovechkin goals this season. The Great Eight has scored 44 goals in 59 games against the Leafs and has three goals in three games on starting goalie Joseph Woll.
The Maple Leafs come to the US nation’s capital on the back end of a back-to-back following a 3-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday. The Leafs are 1-2 this season in the second half of a back-to-back. With the Maple Leafs getting blanked on Tuesday, once again, we turn to our trend of playing the first period Over and game total Over in a game involving a team who was shut out in their previous outing. The trend was not our friend in last night’s game involving the New Jersey Devils, with both the first period and game total failing to cash. For the season, the first period Over part of the trend is 21-8 (72%), while the full game is 17-10-2 (63%). If the first period Over 1.5 goals fails to cash, then double down on the second period total going Over 1.5 goals. Of the eight games that had a goal or less in the first period, seven of the eight have seen two goals or more scored in the second period.
The Leafs will look to get back to their winning ways tonight against a Caps team that they have won four straight and eight of ten. One concern for me about playing Toronto tonight is that I am not sure which Joseph Woll we will see tonight. Is it the goalie who has given up one goal in each of his wins (Seattle and Montreal) or the goalie who gave up a combined seven goals in his two losses to the St. Louis Blues? I am betting on the latter. The Caps opened as a (-120) favorite and have been bet up to (-140). Washington is taking in 69% bets and 71% of the money.
NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs/Washington Capitals 1st period Over 1.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Washington Capitals Over 6 (-118) – 1 unit
Washington Capitals ML (-140)
Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+125) – 1 unit
Alex Ovechkin Over ½ assist (+140) – 1 unit
Dylan Strome Over ½ assist (-110) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins (-130; 6.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
Former Maple Leafs General Manager Gord Stellick has the saying, “If you are going to suck, don’t suck at home.” Suck at home is what the Penguins did on Monday night as they found themselves down 6-0 after the opening 20 minutes in losing 7-1 to the Dallas Stars. Tonight’s opposition, the Detroit Red Wings, could be just what Pittsburgh needs to get back into the win column. The Penguins have won three straight and four of five versus the Red Wings, including a 6-3 win back on October 10. The other common denominator between the teams are games going Over the total. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen a combined nine or more goals. That, along with the Wings being shut out in the previous game (4-0 to NYR on 11/9), allows us to make a play on the full game Over, but we will also have a play on the first period Over 1.5. For the season, the first period Over part of the trend is 21-8 (72%), while the full game is 17-10-2 (63%). If the first period Over 1.5 goals fails to cash, then you should be doubling down on the second period Over 1.5 goals. Of the eight games that had a goal or less in the first period, seven of the eight have seen two goals or more in the second period.
It appears that Tristan Jarry will get the start tonight after spending some time with Pittsburgh’s AHL team to help get his game back in form. In his three games this season before his stint in the minors, Jarry was 1-1 with a 5.47 GAA and an.836 save percentage. The Penguins this season are 3-0 as the home favorite and 0-4 as a home underdog.
NHL Predictions: Detroit Wings/Pittsburgh Penguins 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-145) – 1 unit
Detroit Wings/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 6.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Sidney Crosby anytime goal (+130) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes (-180; 6) at Utah HC
9:00 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes continue to steamroll their opponents. Only the Winnipeg Jets (+39) have a better goal differential than the Canes (+23). Carolina has won nine of their last 10 games after handing the Vegas Golden Knights their first home loss (8-1) of the season with their 5-2 win on Monday night. The Hurricanes have now scored four goals or more in 10 of their 11 wins.
Carolina center Martin Necas is on pace for a career-high in points. Necas has been a model of consistency this season. His 24 points lead the team, and he has been kept off the scoresheet in only two of the team’s 14 games. Coincidentally, the two games he has been kept off the scoresheet are the only games he has not registered at least one assist. If you are a regular to my column, you know that if it’s a Carolina Hurricanes game, it means I am on Jack Roslovic shots on goal props. Roslovic has had at least two shots on goal in seven straight games and 10 of his last 11. He has had at least three shots on goal in seven straight and eight of his last nine games. The sportsbooks have finally gotten wise and moved his over 1.5 shots on goal from (-165 on Monday) to (-225) for tonight’s game.
After opening the season with three consecutive wins, the Utah HC has lost nine of their last 12 games and have been shut out four times, including the most recent loss, 4-0 at Nashville. Utah HC has been limited to two goals or less in eight of their 15 games. With tonight’s full game total sitting at six it is important to note that nine of the Utah HC games have had a combined six goals or more.
With Utah HC coming off a game where they were shut out, we have a system play in effect of playing both the first period Over 1.5 goals and the full game Over 6. For the season, the first period Over part of the trend is 21-8 (72%), while the full game is 17-10-2 (63%). If the first period Over 1.5 goals fails to cash, then you should be doubling down on the second period Over 1.5 goals. Of the eight games that had a goal or less in the first period, seven of the eight have seen two goals or more in the second period.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes/Utah HC 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-135)
Carolina Hurricanes/Utah HC Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Jack Roslovic Over 2.5 SOG (+130) – 1 unit
Martin Necas over ½ assist (-110) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche (-145; 6)
10:00 p.m. ET
I believe it’s time to buy stock on the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs have won back-to-back games and three of their last four. The lone loss was the 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets. After a rough start to the season, goalie Alexander Georgiev appears to have taken back the crease. Sandwiched around the 6-4 win over Carolina, Georgiev stopped 27 of 28 shots against the Jets and 28 of 30 shots in a thrilling 3-2 overtime win Monday versus the Predators.
Up front, Nathan MacKinnon has been virtually unstoppable. Only the Winnipeg Jets have held MacKinnon off the scoresheet. The NHL’s leading scorer has 30 points in 16 games and is on his way to surpassing last season’s point total of 144. MacKinnon has had two or more points in seven of his 10 home games this season. Last season, MacKinnon had 37 multi-point home games.
You never know what you will get from the Los Angeles Kings on a nightly basis. Are they the team who had impressive wins over the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild or are they the team that lost to the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks in a span of six days? The Kings have traded wins and losses over the past four games and are coming off a disappointing effort in their 3-1 setback to the Calgary Flames. Colorado has won three of four and seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, with six of the wins by two or more goals.
NHL Predictions: Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-148) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 goals (+170) – ½ unit
Vegas Golden Knights (-230; 6.5) at Anaheim Ducks
10:30 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights travel to Anaheim fresh off their first home loss of the season (8-1), losing to the Carolina Hurricanes, 5-2. Vegas has just one win in six road games and is in a stretch where they have seven of their next eight games away from home. No matter where the Golden Knights are playing Pavel Dorofeyev has been able to generate three shots on goal or more. Dorofeyev has cashed this prop in nine of his last 13 games, and the Sportsbooks have caught on to his success. When I gave this out on Monday against Carolina, you got Over 2.5 shots on goal at +120. The books have adjusted, and tonight, it is sitting at (-140).
Tonight, they get an Anaheim team that is tied with three other teams with the fewest points (12) in the league. This should be a “schedule win” for Vegas, but not so fast. The Ducks have won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, and the one loss was 3-1 back on October 13 in Vegas, with Vegas needing two third-period goals for the win.
The Ducks snapped a four-game losing streak on Sunday with a 4-2 win over Columbus in the return of goalie John Gibson. Anaheim has lost six of their last eight games and has scored two goals or less in seven of their last 10 games.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks TT under 2.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev over 2.5 SOG (-140) – 1 unit
