NHL Predictions – Wednesday, November 6:
From a betting perspective, Tuesday’s 11-game NHL card continued to highlight trends I have been discussing over the past few weeks. We saw both games yesterday involving teams coming off being shutout (Philadelphia and Seattle) cash the first period Over 1.5 goals. Those teams are now 17-6 to the first period Over. The Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets, two teams at home, coming off a win and favored by (-200+), both won their games to no surprise. Favorites in this scenario are 13-1, have covered the Puck Line in seven straight, and 12 of the 14 games have seen the favorite score four or more goals. The Canes and Jets are making a mockery of the league and are a combined 21-3 to start the season. One more trend that I will break down in greater detail in an upcoming column for VSIN.com are NHL favorites (-175 to -199). The favorite has cashed in 20 of the 31 games in this spot but is (-2.3) units on the Money Line. If you played all these games on the Puck Line, you would be (+6.22) units. On to Wednesday’s NHL predictions.
Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals (-122; 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Nashville Predators (4-7-1) continue to be one of the early season disappointments with just four wins in their first 12 games. The Preds are coming off a 3-0 loss on Monday to the Los Angeles Kings, activating one of our top system plays of the season. Teams following a game when they have been shut out have cashed the first period over in 17 of 23 games.
It looked like the Predators had turned the corner after starting the season with five consecutive losses, then won their next three games. But since those three wins, Nashville has lost three of four, scoring just eight goals, with five coming in a win over Colorado and two empty net goals. For the season, Nashville has scored almost as many power play goals (nine) as they have at 5 on 5 (12). The 12 goals at 5 on 5 ranks last in the NHL. The additions of free agents Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos were supposed to boost the offense. Both players have just two goals on the season, with three of those four combined goals coming on the power play. The Capitals could be just what Nashville needs to return to their winning ways. The Predators have won the last three meetings between the two teams and seven of the last 10.
Washington is coming off just their third loss of the season (8-2-1), a 4-2 setback to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Caps were in a tough spot, on the back end of a back-to-back and their third game in four days, facing a Canes team that at the time had just two losses in nine games. Now the Capitals are back at home where they are 6-1 to start the season, having won six straight since an opening night loss to the New Jersey Devils.
Alexander Ovechkin has five goals and four assists on his current four-game point streak. The Great 8 is 35 goals shy of passing Wayne Gretzky for the all-time lead in goals (894). Linemates Dylan Strome (eight points/four-game point streak) and Aliaksei Protas (three multi-point games in his last four) have also had solid starts to the season.
One concern for me betting on Washington tonight is that the line looks “fishy.” The Capitals opened as a very short (-115) home favorite, and the line is currently at -122. It seems very odd, considering where both these teams are at to start the season.
NHL Predictions: Nashville/Washington 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-125) – 2 units
Nashville ML (+100) – ½ unit
Nashville -1.5 goals (+235) – ½ unit
Aliaksei Protas over ½ point (+165) – ½ unit
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+140) – ½ unit
Detroit Red Wings (-122; 6) at Chicago Blackhawks
8:00 p.m. ET
It’s been a season of streaks for the Detroit Red Wing, who have lost two, won three, lost three, and most recently, they are coming off a 2-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres. Heading into the game against Buffalo, Detroit coach Derek Lalonde called out his captain, Dylan Larkin, saying he needed more on-ice production from his star player. Larkin responded in the way you would like from your captain, scoring both of the Wings’ goals to put a stop to the team’s three-game losing streak. Detroit has won the last three meetings between the two teams. Larkin has seven goals and 16 points in 21 career games versus the Blackhawks.
Chicago returns to the United Center after a successful 3-2 road trip that saw them score four goals in all three wins. This will be Chicago’s fifth home game of the season. They are 0-3 as the home underdog and 1-0 as the home favorite. Last season, Chicago was 12-24 as the home underdog and 3-1 as the home favorite.
NHL Predictions: Detroit ML (-120) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers (-148; 6.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
He’s back! What was supposed to be an injury that kept him out of the lineup for 2-3 weeks, Connor McDavid returns after only eight days and will suit up tonight as Edmonton hosts the Vegas Golden Knights. The Oilers opened as (-120) home favorite, and with the news of McDavid’s return, Edmonton quickly shot up to (-148). Based on the morning skate, McDavid will center a line with Zach Hyman and Jeff Skinner. McDavid has 3 goals and 10 points in 10 games this season and 10 goals and 28 points in 20 games versus the Golden Knights.
The Oilers are coming off being shutout, 3-0 on Monday to the New Jersey Devils. The bells should be going off right now. Just like the Nashville game, we have another first period Over 1.5 goals.
The loss to Jersey on Monday came as no surprise to me as I was all over the Devils. I explained in detail on Monday why it was a bad spot for Edmonton. The Oilers are thin on the blueline beyond the top pair. Up front, Leon Draisaitl leads the team with nine goals. The other 12 forwards not with the last name McDavid have a combined 12 goals. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson each have just one goal. Zach Hyman, who scored 54 goals last season and has 117 over the past three seasons, has just two goals and didn’t score his first until game 11.
The visiting Vegas Golden Knights are 8-0 at home but have lost all four road games this season and have given up at least four goals in each of the losses. Vegas captain Mark Stone enters tonight’s game on a six-game point streak (three goals, eight assists) and has 16 points in 17 games versus the Oilers. Jack Eichel has 17 points in 16 games versus Edmonton. Let’s try to keep this one a secret as we go back to one of our favorite shots on goal prop plays with Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 shots on goal. Since moving up in the lineup and getting top unit power play time, Dorofeyev has cashed on this prop in four straight and seven of the last 10 games.
Note: As of 12:25 p.m. ET, I could not find any McDavid props. If I see something appealing, I will tweet it out.
NHL Predictions: Vegas/Edmonton 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 2 units
Mark Stone/Jack Eichel Over ½ point parlay (+114) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 SOG (+115) – 1 unit
Jeff Skinner Over 2.5 SOG (-120) – 1 unit
