NHL Predictions: Wednesday, October 9:
Day one as the VSIN Hockey Betting Analyst is in the books, and it’s always a good feeling when you get off to a roaring start. I gave out eight plays on Tuesday, winning six and losing two (+4.03 units). We have five games on the NHL schedule tonight, and I have 16 NHL predictions from four of the five games.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-185, 6.5) at Montreal Canadiens
7:00 p.m. ET
For the fourth consecutive season, these two Original Six teams kick off their schedule against one another. Toronto has won the previous three openers all by one goal and have defeated the Canadiens in five straight overall.
The Maple Leafs’ 298 goals scored last season was second only to Colorado’s 302. Auston Matthews accounted for 69 of those goals. He has feasted on the Canadiens in his career scoring 27 times along with 18 assists in 34 games.
The Leafs have scored four or more goals versus Montreal in four of their last five meetings. Last season, Toronto scored four or more goals in 35 of their 46 victories. Some late-breaking news to report: Toronto will start Anthony Stolarz between the pipes as the expected starter, as Joseph Woll is out with lower-body tightness. Head coach Craig Berube didn’t rule Woll out for tomorrow’s game at New Jersey.
NHL Predictions: Maple Leafs in Regulation (-120) – 1 unit
Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-150) – 1 unit
New York Rangers (-142, 6) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7:30 p.m. ET
The Rangers have dominated this series of late, winning four of five and seven of the last 10 regular season contests. The game opened with the Rangers as a short road favorite (-120) but this line has quickly shot up to Rangers (-145) with 75% bets and 69% of the money on the road team.
I wonder if a little recency bias has come into play when bettors are wagering on the total. The last two meetings have had seven and 11 goals, but prior to that, seven of the previous eight had gone under the betting total. At the last check of the VSIN Betting Splits page, we are seeing 55% of the bets and a whopping 81% of the Handle on the game going Over the total of 6.
New York’s Artemi Panarin has 18 goals and 40 points in 30 career games versus the Penguins.
NHL Predictions: Artemi Panarin Over 1.5 points (+130) – 1 unit
Alexis Lafreniere Over ½ point (-130) – 1 unit
Rangers/Penguins Over 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers (-166, 6.5)
10:00 p.m. ET
“Dig in, right $$%$$ now.” It’s the quote that’s gone viral from Connor McDavid on the recently released Amazon Hockey series. Yes, that was from last season’s playoffs, but I believe the message is still the same from the Oilers captain as Edmonton kicks off the 2024-25 season tonight. The mantra once again for Edmonton is Stanley Cup or bust, and McDavid and company are dead set on not repeating last season’s 2-9-1 start that led to the firing of then-head coach Jay Woodcroft.
Edmonton hosts the Winnipeg Jets tonight as they open the season with four consecutive home games, the final three against teams that missed last season’s playoffs. I expect McDavid and the Oilers to come out flying against a Winnipeg team that I believe will take a step back this season and miss the playoffs. In fact, the Jets have the fourth-longest odds to win the Central Division this season, which puts them on the playoff bubble. I have my eye on one Jets player tonight, Kyle Connor. He has a goal in six consecutive opening games.
NHL Predictions: Edmonton Oilers in regulation (-105) – 2 units
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 SOG (+110) – ½ unit
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (-130) – ½ unit
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 points (+160) – ½ unit
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 SOG (+100) – ½ unit
Kyle Connor anytime goal (+145) – ½ unit
Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks (-205, 6)
10:00 p.m. ET
On paper, this game is a huge mismatch. At (+170) the Flames are the biggest underdog of the young season. Calgary’s blueline beyond Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson is a bit thin and will be tested by a Canucks team that had three of the top 19 scorers in the NHL last season. Vancouver added to their offense in the summer with the additions of Jake DeBrusk (19 goals), Daniel Sprong (18 goals) and Danton Heinen (17 goals).
If you’ve happened to catch any of my recent appearances on VSIN or read my 2024-25 Futures Best Bets piece on the site, you already know my thoughts on the Calgary Flames and the rough season that lies ahead.
Starting on time for the Canucks was a trademark of their 2023-24 season. The Canucks scored the first goal of the game a league high 53 times and led after the opening 20 minutes, 38 times (league high).
The Canucks took three of four meetings from the Flames last season, scoring four goals in each of their wins. Of Calgary’s 44 losses last season, they gave up four goals or more 33 times.
NHL Predictions: Canucks in Regulation (-125) – 1unit
Jake DeBrusk Over ½ point (-115) – 1 unit
Canucks 1st period -1/2 goal (+124) – 1 unit
Canucks Team Total Over 3.5 goals (-130) – 1 unit
Season Record: 6-2 (+4.03 units)
