Putting what we’ve seen so far this college football season is not an easy thing to do. Some teams are going to step up in class and play a legitimate opponent for the first time this season here in Week 4. Others might be playing their first big test in a week or two after starting with a big game and then easing the degree of difficulty. We’ll also see some teams have to execute in the fourth quarter of a close game for the first time. In my mind, Weeks 4 and 5 are the toughest, but probably most opportunistic weeks of the season.
Therefore, it’s not surprising to see some noteworthy line moves off of the opening numbers, as bettors and bookmakers have different ratings and opinions on a lot of these teams. We’ve got a lot of premier games in the SEC this week, plus a couple in the Big Ten, and a whole lot of other games that are made more interesting thanks to being able to bet on them.
Week 4 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 20 at 6:45 p.m. ET
Navy (-8.5, 51.5) at UAB
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Any time money comes in on Sunday on a bad team, you have to take notice and have to respect it. That’s the case here, as Navy opened -11 at Circa and was down to 8.5 at time of writing. DraftKings was even lower at 7.5. Some of this might have to do with the status of QB Braxton Woodson, who suffered a sprained ankle two weeks ago against Florida Atlantic. He was listed as “week-to-week”. I will say, backup QB Jackson Gutierrez was 6-of-12 for 100 yards with two passing TD and seven carries for 75 yards and a TD. This might not actually be a downgrade, but it’s being priced as one.
Clemson at California (PK, 49.5)
Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
What a tough handicap this game is. Circa opened Cal -2 and sat pick ‘em a few hours later, while other shops around the industry had Cal -1 or -1.5 still. Neither team is trustworthy and the spot stinks for Clemson with cross-country travel to Berkeley after the comeback, weather-delayed win over North Carolina this past weekend. I’m curious to see if we get any strong indicators of where this line will move as the week goes along. It’s the Friday night chase game, too, so you know bored bettors will be firing looking for action.
Texas (-4, 57) at Tennessee
Saturday, Noon ET
A marquee game that will get a ton of action and the first of many good SEC games this weekend. Circa opened this game Texas -5.5 and it was down to 4 at time of writing. Now, that being said, it doesn’t take much with college football to move around a number between 4 and 6. Honestly, this could’ve been something of a feeler line to see if 6 was the right number or if 4 was the right number. I think that the expectation was that 6 would be right, but now the team at Circa and other teams around the market have their answers. DraftKings was also sitting 4, with other shops at 4.5 by Sunday evening.
UNLV (-13.5, 49.5) at Akron
Saturday, Noon ET
Not everything is a conference game this week and this is about as weird and wild of a non-con game as you will find. UNLV traveling all the way to Akron for a Noon kickoff in the Rubber City. To this point, the Rebels have been pretty disappointing. So has Akron, but the Zips never really have expectations. There are some expectations here, though, as the line had some modest movement towards the Akron side going from -14.5 to -13.5 based on the Circa opener. It’s not a huge move, but, again, any position on a bad team early in the week is notable.
Mississippi at Florida (-3, 61)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
No notable line movement to the spread for this game on Sunday, but we did see some people pick on the opening total of 59.5 or 59, depending on the book. Circa had made its way up to 61, but was able to keep the -3 on the Florida side. You’ll hear a ton of talk about this game, especially the possibility for an emotional letdown from Ole Miss after winning the Lane Kiffin Revenge Game over LSU. This is a great game between two great teams. We’ll see if sharp bettors have any strong opinion on it.
Louisiana (-11.5, 50) at Charlotte
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Like I said regarding UAB, any time you see money hit a bad team on Sunday, it’s worth paying attention. Charlotte is a really bad team. But, the 49ers played App State tough last week and seem to be better than we thought, at least better than I thought after losing to The Citadel in Week 1. Louisiana squeaked past UAB last week and, as we saw for Friday night, the Blazers have some backers out there. Perhaps that sentiment has carried over to this game.
Oregon (-2.5, 62.5) at USC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
There can be some SoCal bias out here with the Circa numbers because of the California crowd in town for the weekend or those who cross the border to be able to legally bet at a sportsbook. That is not the case with this line or the action it has seen thus far, as Oregon opened -2.5 and sat -2.5 across the board as of Sunday night. This is such a hard handicap because the Ducks were talked about as the most talented team in the country coming into the season, but struggled with Boise State and lost to Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, USC just gave up 35 points to a Rutgers game that got slapped by UMass earlier in the season. A marquee game, but maybe not a marquee betting opportunity.
Missouri at Mississippi State (-6, 49.5)
Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Let’s see if Mississippi State has reached the top of the market or not. Circa opened -4 here and saw very minimal resistance before stopping at -6. I do think public piggybackers and others will push this line out to 7 at some point. Then we’ll see if the Tigers have any fans out there. Missouri is 3-0, but last week’s 27-17 win over Troy was underwhelming at best. It was certainly a less impressive data point than the Bulldogs’ comeback win over South Carolina in Columbia.
UMass (-6, 59) at Sacramento State
Saturday, 9 p.m. ET
No line move of consequence on this game, but some water cooler fodder. This is the biggest road favorite role for UMass since they were -6 against Eastern Michigan back in Week 11 of the 2015 season. They did win and cover with a 28-17 decision there. This is actually the first time that the Minutemen have been a road favorite since Week 9 of the 2018 season and only the fourth time in program history since joining the FBS ranks per the KillerSports database. Usually we see people bet against historical outliers like this, but I’m not sure anybody wants to bet the Hornets with their biggest enemy’s money, let alone their own.
Minnesota at Washington (-8.5, 46)
Saturday, 11 p.m. ET
It’ll be a late night to be out rowing the boat for Minnesota and P.J. Fleck, but early indications are that the Golden Gophers will be competitive against the Huskies. Circa popped a 10 on this game and it ranges from 8.5 to 9.5 in the market as of Sunday evening. The Huskies are undefeated, but they’ve only scored 40 points in two FBS games and that could compromise their ability to cover a decent-sized number. I will say, we’ve had one legitimate data point for Minnesota and they got rocked by a Mississippi State team moving up ratings lists like a rocket ship. Maybe this has something to do with that.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
