In most of the daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or, for this article, the ice.
I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine. It proved to be a very fruitful exercise in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see below as I unveil five different NHL Scheduling Scenarios that produced definitive results. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I will explain. As a bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage of.
** Note the upcoming games mentioned cover contests played over the next two weeks, starting Thursday, 10/19
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 371-362 for +51.5 units of profit (7.0% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season, so long as the home opponent wasn’t on extended rest (3+ Days).
Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, and then plays the following day again. This was a very strong spot for road teams and figures to be once again in 2023-24. For the record, the home teams going against the road teams in this one-day rest scenario lost 133.04 units for an R.O.I. of -18.2%!
Upcoming games for system #1
Thursday, October 19, 2023
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: Two Days
EDMONTON OILERS: One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS: One Day
MINNESOTA WILD: One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day
WINNIPEG JETS: One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day
Saturday, October 21, 2023
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES: One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS: One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
DALLAS STARS: One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day
WINNIPEG JETS: One Day
EDMONTON OILERS: One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS: One Day
Sunday, October 22, 2023
CALGARY FLAMES: One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS: A2H b2b
Monday, October 23, 2023
MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day
BUFFALO SABRES: One Day
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:Two Days
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days
Thursday, October 26, 2023
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES: One Day
WINNIPEG JETS: One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day
MINNESOTA WILD: One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: One Day
OTTAWA SENATORS: One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS: One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: One Day
DALLAS STARS: One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES: One Day
CALGARY FLAMES: One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day
EDMONTON OILERS: One Day
Saturday, October 28, 2023
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS: One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: One Day
WINNIPEG JETS: One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day
OTTAWA SENATORS: One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS : One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: H2H b2b
Sunday, October 29, 2023
MINNESOTA WILD: One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS: One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS: One Day
Monday, October 30, 2023
FLORIDA PANTHERS: One Day
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN: One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: 3+ Days
NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day
WINNIPEG JETS: One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS: One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: One Day
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
DALLAS STARS: One Day
CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES: One Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 164-124 for +17.8 units of profit (6.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team not in that scenario.
Steve’s thoughts: While 17.8 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.2% aren’t earth-shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall last season. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.
Upcoming games for system #2
Thursday, October 19, 2023
CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days
BUFFALO SABRES: One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE: One Day
BOSTON BRUINS: 3+ Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS: One Day
Saturday, October 21, 2023
NEW YORK ISLANDERS: H2A b2b
BUFFALO SABRES: One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: H2A b2b
MINNESOTA WILD: One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES: One Day
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
SEATTLE KRAKEN: Two Days
DETROIT RED WINGS: One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: Two Days
CALGARY FLAMES: One Day
Friday, October 27, 2023
BUFFALO SABRES: Two Days
NEW JERSEY DEVILS: One Day
MINNESOTA WILD: A2A b2b
WASHINGTON CAPITALS: One Day
Sunday, October 29, 2023
COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days
BUFFALO SABRES: One Day
Monday, October 30, 2023
CAROLINA HURRICANES: Two Days
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
BUFFALO SABRES: Two Days
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
Strangely, NHL home teams playing on two days rest game scenario were just 142-141 for -56.93 units of loss (-20.1% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season.
Steve’s thoughts: This system shows how just a slight altering of routine can affect a team, even at home. It’s not often in any sport where bettors can fade such a simple system that shows a loss of over 20% R.O.I. Often, these home teams are overpriced a touch because of the extra rest when, in fact, that factor is actually not advantageous.
Upcoming games for system #3 (PLAY AGAINST HOME TEAMS IN BOLD)
Thursday, October 19, 2023
NASHVILLE PREDATORS: One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS: Two Days
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days
FLORIDA PANTHERS: Two Days
Friday, October 20, 2023
NEW JERSEY DEVILS: 3+ Days
NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Two Days
Saturday, October 21, 2023
DETROIT RED WINGS: Two Days
OTTAWA SENATORS: Two Days
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days
WASHINGTON CAPITALS: Two Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS: One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: Two Days
BUFFALO SABRES: H2A b2b
OTTAWA SENATORS: Two Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES: Two Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Two Days
DALLAS STARS: Two Days
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Two Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS: Two Days
FLORIDA PANTHERS: Two Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days
NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Two Days
BOSTON BRUINS: One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES: Two Days
WINNIPEG JETS: Two Days
EDMONTON OILERS: Two Days
MINNESOTA WILD: Two Days
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days
NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days
LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: Two Days
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Two Days
Friday, October 27, 2023
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Two Days
LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES: A2A b2b
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days
Sunday, October 29, 2023
CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days
EDMONTON OILERS: Two Days
Monday, October 30, 2023
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES: Two Days
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
LOS ANGELES KINGS: Two Days
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Two Days
NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Two Days
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Two Days
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
DALLAS STARS: One Day
CALGARY FLAMES: Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES: 3+ Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE: Two Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario were 15-7 for +9.35 units of profit (42.5% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team that played the prior day at home.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there are travel advantages associated with this one. Playing at home on the second of back-to-back games is a lot more comfortable for players than having to travel late the night before and arrive in a road city in a rushed fashion. This system doesn’t occur often, so be sure to jump on them when they arise, as 42.5% ROI is not something to miss.
Upcoming games for system #4
Wednesday, October 25, 2023
WASHINGTON CAPITALS: H2A b2b
NEW JERSEY DEVILS: A2H b2b
Saturday, October 28, 2023
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: H2A b2b
LOS ANGELES KINGS: A2H b2b
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5
In all other second games of a back-to-back scenario besides those described in system #4, NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario were just 43-57 for -34.29 units of loss (-34.3% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season.
Steve’s thoughts: The reasons for this ugly system on home teams stem from nothing more than fatigue. There is a reason that back-to-back scenarios are such a major focus when the NHL schedule for the upcoming season is released in early summer each year. The fatigue factor outweighs any type of home ice advantage. On top of that, most teams in back-to-back scenarios turn to their #2 goalies for that contest.
Upcoming games for system #5
Sunday, October 22, 2023
CALGARY FLAMES: One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS: A2H b2b
BOSTON BRUINS: A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS: A2H b2b
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
NEW JERSEY DEVILS: 3+ Days
MONTREAL CANADIENS: A2H b2b
Friday, October 27, 2023
SAN JOSE SHARKS: A2A b2b
CAROLINA HURRICANES: H2H b2b
Saturday, October 28, 2023
NEW YORK RANGERS: One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS: H2H b2b
Summary
These scheduling systems prove that NHL betting isn’t just a matter of picking the better team in a matchup. The rigors of playing an 84-game season on numerous different scheduling scenarios take their toll. Therefore, it’s important to not only recognize the strengths of the teams in a game, but also how their rest or fatigue might have them physically and/or mentally prepared for any given contest.
