NHL Scheduling Scenario Betting Systems:
In most daily sports, a team’s schedule and rest play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or, for the purposes of this article, the ice. I have tracked these scheduling scenarios and compared the situations of two teams in any given hockey game, which is a key part of my handicapping routine. It proved to be a very fruitful exercise over the last two seasons, as you’ll see below as I unveil six different NHL Scheduling Scenarios that produced definitive results. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I explain. As an added bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage on a chart at the end of this article.
** Note the games shown on the attachment cover the entire regular season starting Tuesday 10/8 – and will only be invalid in the cases of postponements or rescheduling that affect each team’s resting situation
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
For the second straight season in 2023-24, simply playing the NHL team coming in more rested on a single game-to-game basis in any given contest where the scenarios were unequal was advantageous. The results in the 2023-24 season were somewhat dramatic, with the more rested team posting a record of 347-277 for +13.96 units of profit (ROI 2.2%), and the less rested team going 277-347 for -66.83 units of loss (ROI -10.7%). This is regardless of home/road scenario.
Sometimes, the best way to win, or at least maintain, in sports betting is to stick with the basics. Every NHL team has professional players, and while there are obvious talent differences throughout the ranks, collectively, when assembled on teams, they are not all that separated. They all suffer from the same scheduling scenarios where long road trips are tough, too many games in too few days cause fatigue, etc. This particular system that thrived in the 2023-24 season could easily be the starting point for any bettor looking to succeed with the grind of daily NHL betting. Taking the more rested team in an uneven game-to-game schedule scenario gave bettors a 12.9% ROI edge.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 41-73 for -29.15 units of loss (-25.6% ROI) when matched against a home team in the two-day rest scenario in the 2023-24 season.
The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so this system produced a significant volume of plays. It was the most prolific angle I tracked last year in terms of negative ROI. Just having a lesser rest period by a single day turned out to be a terrible disadvantage for road teams.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario are 312-259 for +5.11 units of profit (0.9% ROI) over the last two seasons when matched against a road team not in that scenario.
While 5.11 units of profit and an ROI of 0.9% aren’t earth shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall during that span. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for. It is a good one to keep bettors afloat for the long haul.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
Strangely, NHL home teams playing on anything two days rest or longer game scenario were 240-187 for +8.09 units of profit (1.9% ROI) in the 2023-24 season.
This system may not seem all that eye-popping on the surface, but just thinking about the foundation of the system and the volume of games gives it merit in showing a profit. This is a very simple angle, and it just says that teams playing on home ice that are more rested than the standard one-day scenario have an advantage. How many single-season scenarios showing 427 opportunities are able to produce a profit with today’s inflated recreational betting juice figures?
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5
NHL home teams playing on the back end of consecutive days struggled in 2023-24, going 58-61 for -11.89 units of loss (-10% ROI), regardless of the scenario the road team was in.
There are obvious fatigue disadvantages to playing on the second of back-to-back days. You would think that being at home would provide some advantage, and it might, but the teams are priced higher at home, and a lesser winning percentage costs them and their backers in the end. The moral of the lesson on most of these systems is that rest is best.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #6
NHL road teams have enjoyed a nice advantage in the limited number of games in which they had a two-day or more rest advantage over the host team, going 57-50 for +10.19 units of loss (+9.5% ROI) over the last two seasons.
A two-day rest disadvantage is a lot to overcome for a home team, so this is one of the few simple scheduling scenarios where the road team has held a consistent edge over a two-year span. It doesn’t take a lot of reasoning to figure out why. The road team is well-rested; the home team is not. The home team is usually still priced as if home ice is the deciding factor. It isn’t.
Summary
These scheduling systems prove that NHL betting isn’t just a matter of picking the better team in a matchup. The rigors of playing an 84-game season on numerous different scheduling scenarios take their toll. Therefore, it’s important to recognize not only the strengths of the teams in a game but also how their rest or fatigue might have them physically and/or mentally prepared for any given contest. Starting with this basic understanding can help you point to more winners in NHL handicapping.
