NHL Scheduling Scenarios to Help Handicap the 2025-26 Season:
In most daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play a crucial role in determining how well they perform from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or, for the purposes of this article, the ice. I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine. It has proved to be a very fruitful exercise over the last few seasons, as you’ll see below as I unveil seven different NHL Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results. I believe they all have foundation to them as well, which I explain. As an added bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage of on an attached chart.
One other thing to note before I unveil this year’s systems: The last two seasons have been unusually successful for extremely high favorites. In the past, the jacked-up prices on these teams, along with more occasional upsets, led to massive losses when backing these teams. However, over the last two NHL seasons, favorites of higher than -275 are 184-47 for +27.39 units, for a ROI of 11.9%. This is something to watch closely as the season wears on again.
Oh, by the way, about midway through last season, one of our loyal VSiN Pro Subscribers wrote me some feedback upon reviewing this particular article, stating that it should be a “BIBLE” for anyone betting hockey. Staying away from any notions of blasphemy, I 100% agree with its importance.
** Note the games shown on the attachment cover the entire regular season starting Tuesday, 10/7 – and will only be invalid in the cases of postponements or rescheduling that affect each team’s resting situation
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
For the second straight season in 2024-25, simply playing an NHL home team coming in more rested on a single game-to-game basis in any given contest where the scenarios were unequal was tremendously advantageous. These more rested home teams have posted a record of 468-319 for +60.38 units of profit (ROI 7.7%).
Steve’s thoughts: Sometimes the best way to win, or at least maintain in sports betting is to keep to the basics. Every NHL team has professional players, and while there are obvious talent differences throughout the ranks, collectively, when assembled on teams, they are not all that separated. All of them suffer from the same scheduling scenarios where long road trips are tough, too many games in too few days cause fatigue, etc. This particular system, which has thrived over the last two seasons, could easily be the starting point for any bettor looking to succeed with the grind of daily NHL betting. Taking the more rested home team in an uneven game-to-game schedule scenario has given bettors a 7.7% ROI edge.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL road teams playing on the standard one day rest scenario have had two straight tough seasons when matched against a home team in the two days rest scenario, going 99-151 for -48.85 units of loss (-19.5% ROI)
Steve’s thoughts: The one day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so this system produced a significant volume of plays on it. It was the single most prolific angle I tracked last year in terms of negative ROI. Just having a lesser rest period by a single day turned out to be a terrible disadvantage for road teams.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
NHL home teams playing on the standard one day rest scenario are 485-385 for +22.06 units of profit (2.5% ROI) over the last three seasons when matched against a road team NOT in that scenario.
Steve’s thoughts: While a 3-year profit of +22.06 units and an ROI of 2.5% aren’t earth-shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of other hosts overall during that span, and it is a three-year running trend with a lot of games counted in the sample. Again, I must point out that the one day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for. It is a good one to keep bettors afloat for the long haul.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
Any NHL team playing on 3+ days rest against an opponent on shorter rest was wildly successful in the 2024-25 season, going 75-50 for +24.75 units of profit (19.8% ROI)
Steve’s thoughts: This system came up 125 times last season, and bettors should be on the lookout for the extremely well-rested teams, as they play with a tremendous advantage when up against teams that aren’t so fortunate with the schedule. When I talk about the importance of rest, little validates in more than this angle.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5
NHL home teams playing on the back end of consecutive days struggled again in 2024-25, and are now 84-98 for -28.49 units of loss (-15.7% ROI), regardless of the scenario the road team was in over the last three seasons.
Steve’s thoughts: There are obvious fatigue disadvantages to playing on the second of back-to-back days. You would think that being at home would provide some advantage, and it might, but the teams are priced higher at home and a lesser winning percentage costs them and their backers in the end. The morale of the lesson on most of these systems is that rest is best.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #6
NHL road teams enjoyed a nice advantage last year in the limited number of games in which they had a three day or more rest advantage over the host team, going 91-69 for +15.59 units of loss (+9.7% ROI) over the last three seasons.
Steve’s thoughts: A two days rest disadvantage is a lot to overcome for a home team, so this turns out to be one of the few simple scheduling scenarios where the road team has held a consistent edge over a two-year span. It doesn’t take a lot of reasoning to figure out why. Road team well-rested, home team not. The home team is usually still priced as if the home ice is the deciding factor. It isn’t.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #7
NHL road teams playing on the back end of consecutive day road games also struggled again in 2024-25, and are now 143-222 for -58.65 units of loss (-16.1% ROI), regardless of the scenario the home team was in over the last two seasons.
Steve’s thoughts: This is the opposite side to #6, and if there is any single most difficult spot in either NBA or NHL scheduling, it has to be the back-to-back road game scenario. You have to be very selective in taking a chance on these road teams fighting through the fatigue factor, as they win less than 40% of the time.
Summary
These scheduling systems prove that NHL betting isn’t just a matter of picking the better team in a matchup. The rigors of playing an 82-game season on numerous different scheduling scenarios take their toll. Therefore, it’s important to not only recognize the strengths of the teams in a game, but also how their rest or fatigue might have them physically and/or mentally prepared for any given contest. Starting with this basic understanding can help you point to more winners in NHL handicapping.
