Stanley Cup Odds and Predictions:
Lord Stanley’s Cup is one of the recognizable trophies in all of sport. It is the ultimate prize after the 82-game regular season and it takes 16 playoff victories to lift in a postgame celebration, where every player takes a turn carrying the symbol of hard work and determination around the rink. Every player also gets a day with the Stanley Cup in the summertime.
For players on Canadian teams, the Cup has been elusive. You have to go back to the 1993 Montreal Canadiens to find the last champion from north of the border. This season, the Edmonton Oilers are favored to break that drought. The Toronto Maple Leafs are also lined among the favorites.
The reigning champion and 2023 runner-up Florida Panthers are also among the likeliest teams to lift the trophy, as well as other usual suspects like the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Carolina Hurricanes. The New Jersey Devils are probably the biggest surprise team near the top of the board after finishing 10 points out of a playoff spot and 33 points behind the Metropolitan Division champion Rangers, but an upgrade in goal and a terrific group of stars are enough to line them among the league’s elites.
These originally appeared in the 2024-25 NHL Betting Guide released on Sept. 24.
Here are the 2024-25 Stanley Cup Champion odds:
- Edmonton Oilers +800
- Florida Panthers +1000
- Dallas Stars +1100
- Toronto Maple Leafs +1300
- New York Rangers +1300
- New Jersey Devils +1300
- Colorado Avalanche +1300
- Carolina Hurricanes +1300
- Vegas Golden Knights +1800
- Vancouver Canucks +1800
- Nashville Predators +1800
- Boston Bruins +1800
- Los Angeles Kings +2200
- Tampa Bay Lightning +2500
- Winnipeg Jets +2500
- Minnesota Wild +3500
- Ottawa Senators +4000
- Detroit Red Wings +4000
- Pittsburgh Penguins +4500
- New York Islanders +4500
- Buffalo Sabres +5000
- St. Louis Blues +5500
- Seattle Kraken +5500
- Utah Hockey Club +5500
- Washington Capitals +6000
- Philadelphia Flyers +6000
- Calgary Flames +7500
- Montreal Canadiens +12000
- Chicago Blackhawks +15000
- Columbus Blue Jackets +20000
- Anaheim Ducks +20000
- San Jose Sharks +40000
Like any sport, injuries will play a huge part. The teams that have the best depth are usually the best equipped for the grind and it is a grind in a hugely physical sport with a lot of games and a lot of travel. What most of the top teams have in common is superstar talent paired with strong goaltending. The separator is having the cap space, depth, and front office to also provide depth in the event of injury or to keep the top guys from having to be used in every game situation.
Here are my favorite Stanley Cup Champion picks up to +2000; up to +4000; and the longshots +4500 and up.
Stanley Cup Odds Up To +2000
Carolina Hurricanes (+1300): The Hurricanes finished with the second-most points in the Eastern Conference, trailing only the division rival Rangers. This team is always a puck possession monster under head coach Rod Brind’Amour and I believe that they should have been even better last season.
Carolina was second-best in the EC in goal differential at +63, trailing only the eventual champion Panthers. As great as they were, Natural Stat Trick metrics have them down for 194.12 expected goals for at 5-v-5. They were second in that department to the Oilers. In actuality, the ‘Canes only scored 169 goals at 5-v-5. They were elite on special teams and had 12 players with at least 10 goals.
Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov ranked 20th in goals saved above average and finished second in GAA and 13th in SV% in his first season as a starter. Veteran Frederik Andersen was awesome in March and April, but I do think it will be Kochetkov’s team come playoff time this season, which elevates the ceiling for Carolina.
Stanley Cup Odds Up To +4000
Tampa Bay Lightning (+2500): The next tier of teams is pretty small, but Tampa Bay is the easy choice here. They are one of the most obvious positive regression teams because the odds are good that Andrei Vasilevskiy returns to form. Vasy missed the early part of the season with an injury and never fully seemed comfortable.
For Vasilevskiy to finish 33rd out of qualified goalies in SV% and 28th in GAA is crazy. His .900 SV% was easily the lowest of his career and his 2.90 GAA was easily the highest. Tampa Bay scored the second-most goals among Eastern Conference teams. While they lost Steven Stamkos and have some other pieces to replace, Jon Cooper is a terrific head coach and this is a very smart front office.
Jake Guentzel should fit right in and other productive players may thrive with more ice time.
Stanley Cup Longshots (+4500 and Up)
Buffalo Sabres (+5000): The reunion with Lindy Ruff should be a good thing for the Sabres, who will improve their defensive zone coverage and play an all-around tighter game in front of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi. If Levi can take a step forward, this will be one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, as UPL ranked 16th in GSAA in all situations out of 98 tracked goaltenders by Natural Stat Trick.
The ceiling is very high for the Sabres if Ruff can squeeze more production and development out of youngsters like Dylan Cozens (47 pts in 79 G), Zach Benson (30 pts in 71 games), and Jack Quinn (19 pts in 27 G). All of them are recent first-round picks for the Sabres that have been learning on the fly.
This team has the makings of an elite defensive corps with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Trade Deadline acquisition Bowen Byram. This should be a much improved team with Ruff and a lot of young talent.
