Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are my picks for Friday’s Olympic Hockey action.
Finland vs. Canada
Finland (+1.5, +116) vs Canada (-1.5, -142) – Total 5.5 (Under, -115)
10:40 a.m. ET
Czechia gave Canada all it could handle before Canada scored a late third-period goal to force overtime, and then got the game-winner from Mitch Marner to advance to the Semi-Final round to take on Finland. For their part, the Finns needed late-game heroics of their own, rallying for a pair of goals in the final 6:06 of regulation, including the tying goal with 72 seconds left in the third period. That paved the way for Arturri Lehkonen’s winning goal, 3:23 into overtime.
Of major concern for Canada heading into Friday’s Semi-Final is the status of Captain Sidney Crosby, who was injured in the victory over Czechia. “Sid is by no means ruled out of the tournament,” head coach Jon Cooper said. “We’ve got the best of the best looking at him. I can speak for (injured defenseman Josh) Morrissey as well, same boat. We’re taking this day by day. And we’re not going to put anyone in harm’s way. But if he can play, he’s definitely going to. We’ll know more again in 24 hours.”
If Crosby can’t go, then look for Nick Suzuki, who scored the tying goal for Canada to force overtime, to slot between Mitch Marner and Mark Stone. Sam Bennett, who did not play against the Czechs on Wednesday (sick), is expected to return to the lineup. His in-your-face style of play is just what Canada needs against a Finnish team that will look to play physically against a far more skilled Canadian team.
Though Finland has scored 19 goals through the first four games, 11 of those goals came against Italy. One other goal was scored into an empty net, off the stick of Mikko Rantanen, his only goal in this year’s Olympics. Sebastian Aho leads Finland with three goals, with two of those coming in the 11-0 thrashing of Italy. That all being said, I do expect Finland to raise their game by a few notches and give Canada everything they can handle.
One Finland goal prop that I will have “in pocket” is an Artturi Lehkonen anytime goal (Best price at DraftKings). A couple of player props for Canada, and as always, shop around because there is a significant difference in what is offered from book to book. Currently, FanDuel has the best price that I could find for a Macklin Celebrini anytime goal, and FanDuel and BetMGM both have the best price for a Connor McDavid anytime goal. I am also on the “triple Macs” to each pick up two points.
Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Canada ML/Slovakia +3.5 alt. line (-109) – 3 units
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+115) – .15 units
Connor McDavid anytime goal (+110) – .15 units
MacKinnon/McDavid/Celebrini each Ov 1.5 pts (+265) – .15
Artturi Lehkonen anytime goal (+550) – .15 units
Slovakia vs. United States
Slovakia (+1.5, +184) vs. United States (-1.5, -230) – Total 5.5 (Over, -140)
12:10 p.m. ET
The Slovaks have been the biggest surprise in the Men’s Olympic Hockey tournament. They earned top spot in their Group (B) that included Sweden and Finland. They cruised past Germany (6-2) in the Quarterfinal round to earn an opportunity to play in the Semi-Finals.
While the USA is loaded with NHL Stars (the Tkachuk brothers, the Hughes brothers, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews and many more), the Slovaks counter with players that are not household names such as Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal), Dalibor Dvorsky (St. Louis), Erik Cernak (Tampa), Simon Nemec (New Jersey) and Martin Fehervary (Washington). Slafkovsky’s seven points in this year’s Olympics would lead Team USA. Dvorsky would be tied with Auston Matthews (six) for the USA lead. Slafkovsky has 10 goals in 11 career Olympic games. He has one goal on four shots versus Connor Hellebuyck. Dalibor Dvorsky did not score in the lone game he faced the USA netminder.
Wednesday’s Quarterfinal win by the USA (2-1 in overtime) was the first win in this year’s Olympics in which Team USA did not score at least five goals in a victory. Connor Hellebuyck was strong in goal for the USA, stopping 28 of 29 shots. He has given up just three goals in three games. At the other end of the ice, Slovak goalie Samuel Hlavaj has been quite the revelation. The 24-year-old property of the Minnesota Wild came into the Olympics with an .884 save percentage in 18 AHL games, but he has a .932 save percentage through three Olympic games. He has stopped 110 of 118 shots, including a win in the opening game of the tournament over Finland (4-1 vs. Slovakia).
On to the props. I am on both teams to eclipse their shots on goal totals. The USA total shot number is 40.5, and with the Slovaks giving up 51 to Sweden and 40 to Finland, I see no reason why the USA can’t muster 41 shots on goal in this game. I will also be on the Slovaks to go Over their total of 22.5. They went Over that total in both their games versus Sweden and Finland. BetRivers is where I grabbed these two plays. For those wondering why not just play the game total Over 62.5? I believe, at worst, I will split, and by betting this way, I am just losing the “juice.”
Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
USA Over 40.5 shots on goal (-114) – 1 unit
Slovakia Over 22.5 shots on goal (-114) – 1 unit
Canada ML/Slovakia +3.5 alt. line (-109) – 3 units
Juraj Slafkovsky ATG (+250) – .05 units- (BetMGM for best price)
Dalibor Dvorsky ATG (+430) – .05 units – (FanDuel for best price)
Pavol Regenda ATG (+500) – .05 units – (BetMGM for best price)
