Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
For the first time in 12 years, the hockey world will get to see best on best (minus Russia) as on Wednesday, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and Italy kick off the men’s portion of the quest for Gold at the Olympics. The Florida Panthers have the most players on Olympic hockey rosters (10). The Tampa Bay Lightning are represented across the most Olympic rosters (7). Team USA leads the way with the most players from different teams (18). Team Canada has both the youngest NHL player, Macklin Celebrini (19 years, 243 days) and the oldest NHL player, Sidney Crosby (38 years, 188 days) participating in the men’s hockey event. The host country Italy and France are the only two countries without an NHL player on their roster. Thursday, the remaining eight teams will play their first games of the Olympics, highlighted by the betting favorite Canada (+130 to win Gold), who take on Czechia (10:40 a.m. ET) and the United States (+195 to win Gold) goes up against Latvia (3:10 p.m. ET).
Here is how the men’s competition works. The twelve participating countries are divided into three groups. The group winners and the highest-ranked remaining team will receive byes to the second round of the elimination games. The remaining teams will play single-elimination games with the winners advancing to the second round. Canada is in Group A, joined by Switzerland, the Czech Republic and France. Finland, Sweden, Slovakia and Italy make up Group B. Sweden and Finland will battle for Group B supremacy, and their preliminary round matchup on Friday, February 13, could be the best game of the opening round. The United States heads up Group C and has a fairly easy path to winning their group that includes Germany, Latvia, and Denmark.
Today, I will break down the opening two games between Slovakia and Finland and Sweden and Italy, along with some Olympic hockey future props.
Slovakia vs. Finland
Slovakia (+285) vs Finland (-360) – Total 5.5 (Under, -122)
Wednesday, February 11, 10:40 a.m. ET
Finland is the fourth shortest shot on the board to win Gold (10/1) and take on Slovakia (65/1), who are going to be offensively challenged with just four current NHL forwards on their roster, along with Tomas Tatar, who played for the New Jersey Devils last season, and Adam Ruzicka, who scored 14 goals in 117 career NHL games. The Slovaks have three current NHL defensemen (Erik Cernak, Simon Nemec and Martin Fehervary) who are going to be heavily relied upon to help limit Finland’s quality scoring chances. Slovakia does not have a goalie with NHL experience on their roster.
On the other side, Finland is loaded with a roster filled with NHL players led by Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen from the Dallas Stars and joined by Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen from the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers, just to name a few. Juuse Saros (Nashville) and Kevin Lankinen (Vancouver), who both saw time for Finland at the Four Nations Tournament, return as the top two goalie options, with Joonas Korpisalo (Boston) as the third goalie.
I view Finland’s firepower as too much for Slovakia to handle, so I will play Finland to cover the Puck Line and to cash their team total Over 3.5. Two goal scorers that I like for Wednesday’s game for Finland are Mikael Granlund and Anton Lundell. Granlund plays on the top line, top power play and led Finland in scoring at the Four Nations tournament. Anton Lundell is on the second line and second power play unit. His goal prop offers great value.
One player for Slovakia on my card for this game and I will have a future prop on is Dalibor Dvorsky, who plays in the NHL for St. Louis. Dvorsky centers the second line for Slovakia and the top power play unit. He has scored twice in four NHL games against the expected starting goalie, Juuse Saros.
Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Finland -1.5 goals (-130) – 1 unit
Finland Team Total Over 3.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Dalibor Dvorsky anytime goal (+320) – .10 units
Mikael Granlund anytime goal (+250) – .10 units
Anton Lundell anytime goal (+390) – .10 units
Sweden vs. Italy
Sweden (-4.5 goals, -148) vs. Italy (+4.5 goals, +124)
Wednesday, February 11, 3:10 p.m. ET
The Swedes are (-50000) on the money line, and if you want to throw some pizza money or some good bolognese on the host country for an upset, they are (+4000) on the money line. Sweden has the third-shortest odds to take home Gold (+650 at DK and +470 at FD). Shop around as always if you are interested in Sweden to pull the upset. Sweden should be in cruise control, and I expect them to jump out early and often against the Italians and then take it easy and not embarrass the host team.
With that in mind, I am on Sweden to win the first period by at least two goals and score at least two goals in the opening 20 minutes. While I see goals coming from Sweden, I can see the Italians being blanked and will play their team total Under ½ goal. A couple of goal scorers for Sweden that I will target. Gabe Landeskog was named captain of Team Sweden, and the long-time captain of the Colorado Avalanche will be playing in his final Olympics. One of the most respected players not only on Team Sweden but in the NHL, I expect his teammates to do whatever they can to get him the puck. I also like Joel Eriksson Ek to find the back of the net as well as being a big point producer in the tournament for Sweden.
Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Sweden 1st period -1.5 goals (+100) – 1 unit
Sweden 1st period Team Total Over 1.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Italy Team Total Under ½ goal (+120) – .25 units
Joel Eriksson Ek anytime goal (+165) – .10 units
Gabe Landeskog anytime goal (+330) – .10 units
Filip Forsberg Over 1.5 goals (+700) – .05 units
Future Olympic Hockey Props
Rasmus Dahlin (Sweden) to record 8+ points in the tournament (+370) – .15 units
Gabe Landeskog 2+ goals in the tournament (+230) – .25 units
Zach Werenski to record 8+ points in the tournament (+425) – .15 units
Macklin Celebrini (Canada) to record 8+ points in the tournament (+195) – .15 units
Sidney Crosby tournament Most Valuable Player (30/1)- .10 units
Roman Josi to lead Switzerland in points (+350) – .25 units
Dalibor Dvorsky (Slovakia) to record 3+ points in the tournament (+240) – .25 units
Joel Eriksson Ek to record 3+ goals in the tournament (+250) – .25 units
Ondrej Palat to score at least 1 goal (+135), to record at least 2 points (+155) – both props .25 units
Mark Stone (Canada) to record 4+ points in the tournament (+155) – .25 units
Tom Wilson (Canada) to record 7+ points in the tournament (+500) – .25 units
