Golden Knights take 1-0 series lead in Stanley Cup Final
Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final is in the books and the Vegas Golden Knights have a 1-0 lead after beating the Florida Panthers by a score of 5-2. The Panthers scored the first goal and led 1-0 for almost eight minutes in the first period, but they didn’t lead again in the hockey game. The loss broke Sergei Bobrovsky’s 10-game streak of not allowing more than three goals, but the Panthers didn’t lose because of goaltending. Vegas was the better team. Read on for odds, predictions, and best bets for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Stanley Cup Final Game 2: Odds, predictions, and best bets for Monday, June 5th
Florida Panthers (+120) at Vegas Golden Knights (-140)
Vegas will host Game 2 on Monday, June 5th and they are currently -140 favorites to win the game, according to VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. Florida, on the other hand, is a +120 underdog. Vegas closed as a -130 favorite heading into Game 1, and if you’re wondering why the Golden Knights are slightly bigger favorites in Game 2, it’s probably due to the added variance associated with Game 1. Underdogs had gone 10-4 in Game 1 heading into the Stanley Cup Final.
Visit the VSiN NHL Odds Page to see the entire board.
Updated Stanley Cup Final Projections
Series Winner
Vegas Golden Knights: 73% (-270)
Florida Panthers: 27% (+270)
Correct Series Score
VGK 4 Games: 14% (+615)
VGK 5 Games: 22% (+355)
VGK 6 Games: 19% (+425)
VGK 7 Games: 18% (+455)
FLA 5 Games: 4% (+2400)
FLA 6 Games: 10% (+900)
FLA 7 Games: 13% (+770)
Total Games
4 Games: 14% (+615)
5 Games: 26% (+285)
6 Games: 29% (+245)
7 Games: 31% (+225)
Prediction for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final
Once again, my prediction is in line with the betting market, as my hockey betting model suggests that Vegas should be priced around -140 on the moneyline in Game 2 so neither side interests me from a betting perspective right now. The Golden Knights held a 21-10 edge in high danger shots in Game 1, and I believe they’ll be the better team on Monday, too. I’m most interested to see how Bobrovsky responds. He didn’t have a bad game, but he was beatable. Vegas has now outscored the opposition 53-24 at even strength, which is the best goal differential in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2011 when the Boston Bruins finished with a +27 even-strength goal differential.
Note: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Chandler Stephenson were all ejected from Game 1 in the final five minutes, but there hasn’t been any indication from the league that they will be handing out suspensions to any of those players.
Today’s Best NHL Bets
Florida has been allowing roughly 34 shots per game in the playoffs and that’s exactly what Vegas ended up with in Game 1. The Golden Knights have faced some sound defensive teams, but the Panthers have holes, and Vegas should be able to continue exposing them throughout this series. With that in mind, here are three player props value bets.
Mark Stone Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mark Stone made a big impact in the first round with three goals at eight points in five games versus the Winnipeg Jets, but he scored just three goals and five points in his next 12 games versus Edmonton and Dallas. Stone scored a huge goal in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, though, and the writing has been on the wall for a while now. Stone generated three goals on four expected goals in those 12 games, so it was only a matter of time before a player that has historically outperformed his expected goals lit the lamp again. The Vegas captain attempted 21 shots in his last four games and 15 of those shots were on goal. He hit the net seven times in Game 1 and looks to be back to being a player that is more likely to register three shots on goal than not.
Alex Pietrangelo Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Pietrangelo attempted six shots and hit the net three times Game 1 to go over two and half shots for the third time in four games at +130. His odds aren’t as attractive, with some shops moving him down to +110, but BetRivers Sportsbook, among others, have him listed at +120 and I still believe that’s a value bet. Pietrangelo has attempted five or more shots in 10 out of 17 games so far this postseason and he’s directed 25 pucks toward the opposition goal in his last four games. The Panthers defense gave up a lot of shots to the Hurricanes’ blue line in the last round, and that’s benefited Pietrangelo like I thought it would.
Shea Theodore Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Like Pietrangelo, Theodore was a player that I thought would benefit from playing the Panthers and he did. The 27-year-old had a goal and assist, but more importantly, he registered at least three shots on goal for the fifth time in seven games. Theodore led all defenseman in unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes in the conference finals, and he only one of his six shot attempts was blocked in Game 1. His odds are down from +140, but +120 is still a value bet when the expectation is that his chances of registering three shots are closer to 50 percent than the odds suggest.
All bets tracked via Betstamp.
