Read on for updates betting odds and series predictions. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We’re pumped to be bringing back hockey handicapper Alex Smith on Friday.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds, series predictions and best bet for Game 5
Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Florida Panthers (-425) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+320)
- Dallas Stars (-600) vs Seattle Kraken (+425)
- Edmonton Oilers (-170) vs Vegas Golden Knights (+145)
Carolina Hurricanes advance to Eastern Conference Final with overtime win over New Jersey Devils
The Devils put up a fight in Game 5, but they could not overcome the veteran Hurricanes, who won the game in overtime by a score of 3-2 on a Jesper Fast deflection. Now, the Hurricanes await the winner of the Atlantic Division matchup between Florida and Toronto, which could come to an end on Friday. We’ll have an Eastern Conference Final preview, including predictions and best bets soon after the matchup is set.
Dallas Stars take 3-2 series lead with 5-2 win in Game 5
All in all, I thought the Kraken played a good game, but Dallas made good on their chances early, even though they didn’t have a lot going offensively. Dallas scored three goals on their first 13 shot attempts (Seattle had twice as many at that time) and they didn’t turn it on until the third period, when they started to control the play a little bit more.
The 5-2 score is a bit misleading. After 40 minutes, expected goals were split 50-50 and shot attempts were 60 percent in favor of Seattle and they were trailing 3-2. Jake Oettinger was good enough when the Stars weren’t dominating play, though, and that’s why Dallas was able to hold on for the win. Seattle only generated 1.38 expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey, so statistically, goaltender Jake Oettinger didn’t have to be great.
Updated Series Probabilities
Dallas Stars Win Series: 84% (-525)
- 6 Games: 58%
- 7 Games: 26%
Seattle Kraken Win Series: 16% (+525)
- 7 Games: 16%
By my estimation, Dallas now has an 84 percent chance to win the series, and there’s a 58 percent chance that they will do it in six games. Game 6 goes Saturday in Seattle, and 58 percent converts to moneyline odds of -138, which is in line with the betting market. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Stars listed at -150 on the moneyline, while Seattle is priced at +130.
Updated NHL Series Probabilities
Today’s NHL Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Florida Panthers (+145) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170)
Despite the losses, the Maple Leafs played good at home in the first two games of this series, but after the series shifted to Florida, the games were a lot tighter. So, the big question here is whether home ice advantage was driving the Maple Leafs to dominate early in the series, or does Florida simply have their legs under them now? I lean toward the latter, as the Panthers have slowly adapted to Toronto’s game plan.
Toronto held a 60 percent edge in expected goals through the first two games, but Florida held a slight, 51.5 percent edge in games three and four. As mentioned in Thursday’s write up, my model estimates that Florida will win Game 5 approximately 42 percent of the time, which converts to moneyline odds of +138. The Panthers were priced as high as +160, but for the first time in the series, the odds have moved in their direction. We’ll see if it sticks, as there is a lot of time for money to pour in on Toronto, who have their backs against the wall.
Note: Both Ilya Samsonov and Matthew Knies skated with the Maple Leafs this morning. There is no update on their status currently.
Best Bet: Florida Panthers (Game 5 Moneyline) +150 or better
There are still some shops that are offering the Panthers at +150 or better and that’s about the price I’m willing to strike at for a full unit but shop around because there might be a much better price available at a more obscure sportsbook.
All bets tracked via third party app Betstamp.
Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Vegas Golden Knights (+110)
Suspensions are the big story heading into Game 5 of this series between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Edmonton Oilers as each team will be down one defenseman. Alex Pietrangelo was suspended for one game after he received a game misconduct penalty in Game 4, and Darnell Nurse was suspended one game for instigating a fight in the final five minutes of the game. Vegas losses the better player, as Pietrangelo is more important to them than Nurse is to the Oilers, and it slightly improves Edmonton’s chances of winning Game 5.
Neither team has been able to string together two good performances, and for the Oilers to win the series, that’s what they’re going to have to do. Edmonton has yet to lead in the series, going home with a 3-2 series lead would obviously be a big boost to their overall chances. Vegas will be without one of their best players, as mentioned, but Edmonton will have younger players filling roles that are usually reserved for veteran players and that could turn into an issue if they make too many mistakes.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Friday’s episode we’ll feature another chat with guest hockey handicapper Alex Smith. Alex will share his thoughts on the playoffs to date and any bets that he has locked in for the week
