Tuley: Friday NHL Best Bet, Thursday recaps, XFL opening-weekend picks

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Friday NHL Best Bet, Thursday Recaps

Thursday saw our continuing emphasis on the NHL as the NBA hit its All-Star Break, so we’re expecting this to carry over for the better part of the next week (along with the coming XFL, but more on that below and in Saturday’s column as the league kicks off its third iteration).
I’m glad that I’ve been shying away from the Association heading into the break as favorites went 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) the last three days. Faves have also gone 15-8 in the NHL during that same span, but we’ve continued to keep our focus on our First-Period Over/Unders (especially the Overs with the top teams in that category).
We won again with our Best Bet yesterday on the Red Wings-Flames 1P Over 1.5 -140/Flyers-Kraken 1P Over 1.5 -140 for a juicy parlay payoff of +194. The Flames-Red Wing play didn’t look too strong as it took until 15:22 into the first period for the Flames to score, but then the Red Wings answered with just 1:01 left in the opening 20 minutes. The Kraken scored just 3:01 into the first period and then put it Over the 1.5 goals themselves with another goal with 5:21 to spare.
We have good news for VSiN subscribers as our daily picks are now being included on the Pro Picks page. I’m not sure what my record will show up in the email update later Friday morning under “Top VSiN Experts – Last 7 Days” as all of our picks here weren’t haven’t been entered every day, but we’ve gone 11-4 from last Friday through last night for a net profit of $882.67 based on $100 wagers.

 

 

 

Those include winning our last NBA play on the Bucks +1 last Friday, going 1-1 in college basketball last Saturday for a net loss of $91, going 4-1 on the Super Bowl with our Best Bet on the Chiefs +7.5/Over 44 teaser plus four prop bets and splitting two NHL money-line plays on Tuesday with a loss on Capitals +135 and a win on the Blues +115 for a slight net profit of $15.
Otherwise, the rest of the damage has been done with our NHL First-Period Over/Under parlays as we lost last Friday on the Penguins-Ducks 1P Over/Coyotes-Blackhawks 1P Under, but have won our last four at plus-money with Flames-Sabres 1P Over/Canucks-Red Wings 1P Over at +152 last Saturday, Flames-Senators 1P Over/Canucks 1P Over at +162 on Monday, Rangers-Canucks 1P Over/Sabres-Ducks 1P Over at +158 on Wednesday and the Red Wings-Flames 1P Over/Flyers-Kraken 1P Over +194 last night.
Fortunately, the VSiN Pro Picks page will reflect our record once the daily postings catch up to what our loyal readers have already been following.
Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game action) and give our Best Bet for Friday. Then, I’ll add two plays for the XFL’s opening weekend with more details to come in Saturday’s version of this column.

Thursday Recaps

CBB: No. 4 UCLA rallied to beat Stanford 73-64 late Thursday, but did NOT cover as 13.5-point home favorite (game went Over betting total of 131 points). Earlier, Maryland beat No. 3 Purdue 68-54, but it wasn’t an upset as the Terrapins closed (and easily covered) as 1-point home faves (stayed Under 133.5).

NBA: Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS on the last day before the All-Star Break with Clippers beating Suns 116-107 in game that closed pick-’em. The Bucks covered as 7.5-point road faves in 112-100 win at the Bulls for 13th straight victory while the Wizards upset the Timberwolves 114-106 as 3.5-point road underdogs. Road teams swept 3-0 SU SU and ATS. Unders led 2-1.

More NBA: On the season favorites lead 569-302 SU at the break with 13 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 433-417-21 ATS (50.9%). Home teams still lead 526-358 SU and 455-410-19 ATS (52.6%). In totals wagering, Overs’ lead dipped to 445-425-14 (51.1%).

NHL: Faves went 5-3 with upsets by the Red Wings (+230 in 5-2 win at Flames), Blue Jackets (+170 in 3-1 win vs. the Jets) and Blues (+130 in 4-2 win vs. the Devils). Home teams went 5-3. Overs led 4-3-1 with the push in the Blues’ 4-2 win vs. Devils with a betting total of 6 goals.

Friday’s NHL Best Bet

Stars-Wild 1P Under 1.5 -105/Kings-Ducks 1P Over 1.5. -165 (parlay payoff +214): There aren’t many good choices with First-Period Overs on Friday’s short 5-game NHL card, so we’re leading off our top parlay of the day with the Stars-Wild 1P Under as the Wild are the top Under team this season at 33-21 (61.1%) with 6 straight 1P Unders and 16-2 in their last 18 games (as always, these betting starts are from Twitter’s @PSUOtto, a member of the Follow the Money Army). We’ll tie up that play with the Kings-Ducks 1P Over as the Ducks, despite being just 5-5 in their last 10 games, are still the No. 3 1P Over team at 37-18 (67.3%).

XFL Week 1 Best Bets

Vegas Vipers-Arlington Renegades Under 37 (Saturday): We want to get this pick posted ASAP as there’s still 37s out there, but we believe it’ll get bet lower by the 3 p.m. ET/noon PT Saturday kickoff. We’ve seen Unders dominate in all these spring football leagues recently (XFL, AAF, USFL) and we’ve already seen all these opening totals getting bet that way, so as always shop around for the best numbers you can get.
Seattle Sea Dragons -1 at DC Defenders (Sunday): My “dog-or-pass” philosophy is getting tested as I wish I had given out this play when the Sea Dragons opened as underdogs. I bet them at pick-’em and now they’re favored as they should have been all along. With no ties in the XFL, we feel it’s OK to lay -1 and risk a push if it lands on the number. Basically, I believe more bettors will be jumping on the bandwagon when they learn more about head coach Jim Haslett (2000 NFL coach of the year) and former Cowboys QB Ben DiNucci along with offensive coordinator June Jones. Again, more on the XFL in Saturday’s column, but we wanted to lock in these plays and give a heads-up to our loyal readers.