Tuley: Thursday NHL Best Bet, Wednesday recaps

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Wednesday was a strange day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes office.
It was pretty uneventful early, but then right before I had to pick up my son Maddux after school (Wednesday is his chess club), all hell broke loose with a bunch of things I was juggling and then the Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a revised press release that the state’s Super Bowl betting figures that were released on Monday was inaccurate as the sportsbooks won $5,455,375 (3.6% hold) in Super Bowl LVII instead of the originally reported $11,287,594 (7.4% hold).
I also wanted to get this Thursday column posted early because I’m doing an overnight in-person sleep study at the Las Vegas Sleep Center starting at 8 p.m. PT Wednesday. For some reason, they wouldn’t agree to let me come in at 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. when I usually go to bed!!!

 

 

 

As for Wednesday night’s action, we won our Best Bet on the Rangers-Canucks 1P Over 1.5/Sabres-Ducks 1P Over 1.5 for a parlay payoff of +158 as the Canucks and Rangers needed a mere 5:51 to trade goals on the way to scoring a whopping 5 goals in the first period while the Sabres came through with 2 goals vs. the Ducks by the end of the opening 20 minutes.
We also did a little “dog-or-pass” experiment as I explained in yesterday’s column that the Hornets were a “swagger play” after snapping a 7-game losing streak on Monday, but I personally passed because they were 6-point home favorites vs. the Spurs, who were on a 13-game losing streak of their own. I wrote that a lot of people say I should bet the chalk when I can’t make a case for the underdog, but it’s burned me too many times over the years that I choose to pass because I feel doubly bad when I lose on a favorite because not only do I hate losing money, but then I also kick myself because I’m supposed to be the guy to find live dogs.
Anyway, the Hornets ended up closing as 5-point home faves and covering in a 120-110 victory, so hopefully some followers laid the points anyway. It’s obviously a small sample of one game, but I’ll continue to bring up these situations and we’ll see how they perform and maybe you’ll all turn me into a chalk bettor!
Moving on, my Best Bet for Thursday is below and I’ll add the nightly recaps from Wednesday’s betting action if/when I’m allowed to access my laptop or when I’m released in the morning.

Wednesday Recaps

CBB: No. 10 Tennessee beat newly anointed No. 1 Alabama 68-59, but it wasn’t an upset as the Volunteers won (and covered) as 3-point home favorites (game stayed Under the betting total of 146 points). No. 11 Marquette beat No. 16 Xavier 69-68, but didn’t cover as a 7-point home fave. Later, Northwestern upset No. 14 Indiana 64-62 as 2-point home underdog and +120 on the money line.

NBA: Faves went 9-1 Wednesday night and 8-2 ATS (after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on Monday, so 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS the last two days) with the Jazz (+10.5) covering in a 117-111 loss at the Grizzlies. The night’s lone upset was the Knicks (+4) winning 122-101 at the Hawks. Home team went 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. Unders led 6-4. 

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 568-301 SU with 12 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 432-416-21 ATS (50.9%). Home teams lead 526-355 SU and 455-407-19 ATS (52.8%). In totals wagering, Overs’ lead dipped to 444-423-14 (51.2%).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 Wednesday with upsets by the Coyotes (+200 in 1-0 shootout win vs. Lightning), Red Wings (+190 in 5-4 shootout win at Oilers) and Avalanche (+100 in 3-2 win at Jets). Road team went 4-2. Overs led 4-2.

Thursday’s NHL Best Bet

Red Wings-Flames 1P Over 1.5 -140/Flyers-Kraken 1P Over 1.5 -140 (parlay payoff +194): This is the best option for Thursday as the Flames are the NHL’s No. 2 First-Period Over team at 36-17 (67.9%) while the Flames and Red Wings combine to go 68-38 (64-2%) after the Red Wings led the Oilers 2-0 after the first 20 minutes on Wednesday night while the Kraken and Flyers, the No. 6 and 7 First-Period Over teams, are a combined 65-42 (57.8%). All 1P betting stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter.