Wednesday NHL Sharp Report

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s NHL slate…

 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Bruins (-175, 5.5) at New York Islanders

The Bruins (34-5-4) own the best record in the NHL and have won six of their last seven games. Boston just blanked the Flyers 6-0, taking care of business as -310 home favorites. On the flip side, the Islanders (23-18-4) have lost five of their last six games and just fell to the Caps 4-3 in overtime, losing as -110 home favorites. This line opened with the Bruins listed as a -165 road favorite and the Islanders a +150 home dog. Respected money has laid the chalk with Boston, steaming the Bruins up from -165 to -175. Road favorites off a win are 94-48 (66%) this season. Sweet spot road favorites between -150 and -200 are 53-24 (69%). Boston is 28-6 as a favorite. New York is 10-14 as a dog. The Bruins have the better offense (3.9 GPG vs 3 GPG) and the better defense (allowing 2.2 GPG vs 2.8 GPG). Boston also has the advantage on the power play (28% vs 18%) and penalty kill (86% vs 83%). The total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 6. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Dallas Stars (-165, 6) at San Jose Sharks

The Stars (26-12-7) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 4-0 win over Vegas, cashing as -105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Sharks (13-23-9) have lost three straight and just fell to the Devils 4-3 in a shootout, losing as +165 home dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a -155 road favorite and San Jose a +140 home dog. Pros have gotten down on the Stars, steaming Dallas up from -155 to -165. Road favorites vs teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 96-51 (65%) this season. Teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more in a non-division game are 222-137 (62%). Dallas is 20-10 as a favorite and a 14-7-4 on the road. San Jose is 8-26 as a dog and 4-12-7 at home. The Stars are better offensively (3.5 GPG vs 3 GPG) and better defensively (allowing 2.6 GPG vs 3.8 GPG). Dallas has a big edge on the power play, converting as a 27% clip vs 20% for San Jose. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Lightning (-180, 6.5) at Vancouver Canucks 

The Lightning (28-13-1) have won four straight games and just took down the Kraken 4-1, cruising as -140 road favorites. On the flip side, the Canucks (18-22-3) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 shootout win over the Hurricanes, cashing as big +240 road dogs. The line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -175 road favorite and Vancouver a +150 home dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the big price and have laid the wood with Tampa Bay, driving the Lighting up to -180. Road favorites of -175 or more are 61-23 (73%) this season. Favorites off a win playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 59-26 (69%). The Lightning are 27-8 as a favorite and 11-9 on the road. Vancouver is 11-16 as a dog and 8-10-1 at home. Both teams are averaging roughly 3.5 GPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Tampa Bay is allowing 2.9 GPG compared to 4 GPG for Vancouver. The Lightning also have the better power play (29% vs 24%) and better penalty kill (82% vs 67%).