Olympics 2024 Men’s Basketball:
Olympic men’s basketball begins group play on July 27 in Paris. Team USA is a massive favorite (-500) to win gold this summer, but do not let those overwhelming odds fool you. International basketball is stronger than ever, and there are quite a few teams that can give the Americans a run for their money at the Olympics.
The Format
Twelve teams will compete for gold at the Olympics in basketball. Those teams are separated into three groups.
Group A: Australia, Canada, Greece, Spain
Group B: France, Germany, Japan, Brazil
Group C: Serbia, South Sudan, USA, Puerto Rico
Teams will play each opponent in the group once. The top two teams in each group will move on to the quarterfinals. The top two third-place teams will advance as well.
After the quarterfinal teams are decided a random draw will take place with two stipulations:
- The two highest ranked teams will be in the pot, meaning they will be placed on the opposite sides of the bracket.
- A team cannot play an opponent that was in its group in the quarterfinals.
Once the field is set a single-elimination tournament will take place. Losers in the quarterfinal round will be eliminated. Losers in the semifinal round will play in the bronze medal game.
The Top Contenders (Odds via DraftKings)
Team USA (-500)
The overwhelming favorite to win gold this summer, and for good reason. The Americans boast the best roster in the field. LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid headline an Olympic squad with incredible defensive potential.
Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday are also part of Team USA. Adebayo and Davis were selected to the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team this past season, and Holiday was selected to the All-Defensive Second Team. The defense should lead the way for the American squad.
Team USA is not without shooters either. Six players on this roster shot 37% or better from distance this past NBA season. Shooting and defensive versatility will be this team’s strengths, and it is why they are favored to win gold.
It should be mentioned that there is some attrition that Team USA is dealing with. Kawhi Leonard had to withdraw due to his lingering knee injury. He was replaced with Celtics guard Derrick White. Kevin Durant is also dealing with a calf strain that caused him to miss the tune-up against Canada. His status is in question for the Olympics as a whole, although the team is expressing optimism.
Canada (+1100)
The Canadiens are considered to be the biggest threat to Team USA. Canada finished third in the FIBA World Cup last summer. They beat a much different looking American squad in the bronze medal game, but the steps forward taken by this squad are notable.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way for Canada as its best player. Gilgeous-Alexander finished the regular season fourth in scoring (30.2) and second in MVP voting. In almost any contest in the Olympics he will be the best scorer on the floor.
The backcourt is the biggest strength for Canada, and it is not just due to the presence of Gilgeous-Alexander.
Jamal Murray, Andrew Nembhard, RJ Barrett and Luguentz Dort are all members of the Canadian squad. Most of the backcourt members are more competent offensive players than defensive, but Dort’s presence gives Canada an elite on-ball defender capable of taking on top-tier perimeter threats.
The biggest weakness for Canada is its frontcourt, specifically center. Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell and Khem Birch are their trio of centers on the roster. Olynyk is not a rim protector by any stretch, Powell provides little on offense and Birch is undersized for the position at 6-foot-8.
Many of the teams Canada will likely have to overcome to win gold – Team USA, France and Serbia – boast a massive amount of size at the five. This could ultimately be the Achilles heel for Team Canada which last medaled in 1936.
France (+1400)
Much like Team USA, France is going to be a defensive force in this tournament.
Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert form an insane frontcourt that every team will have trouble navigating. Wembanyama is versatile enough that he can play power forward next to Gobert and Les Bleus will not suffer on offense. That means the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and the runner-up are on the floor defending together.
The French have very good perimeter defenders as well. Bilal Coulibaly, Frank Ntilikina, Evan Fournier and Nicolas Batum will all be playing in Paris. Not only does France have insane rim protection, but it has solid wing defenders capable of taking on any assignment. This should be the best defensive team in the field.
Guard play and shot creation is a small issue on paper, but the French have shooting. Isaia Cordinier, Nando De Colo and Guerschon Yabusele all shot 39% or better from deep in their respective leagues last season. Batum, Wembanyama and Fournier are all respectable shooters that need to be accounted for by the opposition.
The French were eliminated in group play of the FIBA World Cup last summer, but Wembanyama was not on that roster. The presence of the young star changes everything for this group, and the fact that they are the host nation gives them a massive advantage.
Best Bets
France To Win Gold (+1400)
The defensive potential of France is absolutely unreal. Wembanyama and Gobert on the floor together make it nearly impossible for opponents to score at the rim. The presence of Coulibaly gives the French an elite wing defender, and both Batum and Fournier can still be plus defenders when on the floor.
Offense will be the biggest question for France. Andrew Albicy is a very small guard. Ntilikina is a good defender, but is not a great offensive guard by any stretch. Having said that, the French have plenty of shooting. Even with a massive frontcourt the spacing should not be an issue at all.
Les Bleus are in what I would deem to be the easiest group as well. Germany – the reigning FIBA World Cup champions – are in Group B, but both Japan and Brazil are triple-digit longshots to win gold. The French have a very clear path toward a berth in the quarterfinals. As the host nation they will have a strong home-court advantage throughout this tournament as well.
All of this equates to a team that has a better chance to win a gold medal at the Olympics than what +1400 would indicate.
