Paris Olympics Tennis:
There will be men’s and women’s doubles tournaments, as well as mixed doubles, played at the 2024 Summer Olympics. However, the main attraction for tennis will be the men’s and women’s singles events.
We’ll see two 64-player tournaments to determine who will go home with gold, silver and bronze medals. Both tournaments will follow a best-of-three format, and all sets will be played with traditional seven-point tiebreakers (if necessary). To make matters better, the event will take place at Roland Garros. That means the top players in the world will be competing for their countries on one of the grandest stages in tennis: Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Men’s Tennis
Top Contenders
Carlos Alcaraz (-125)
Novak Djokovic (+300)
We usually have the same group of contenders at every big tennis tournament. The new “Big Three ” of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner is responsible for the last nine Grand Slam titles. The three are surface-proof and are threats to win every time they step on a tennis court. That won’t be any different for Alcaraz or Djokovic in Paris, but Sinner did pull out of the event.
Alcaraz, who is representing Spain, won the French Open in June — and Wimbledon in July. But it was that French Open that was played at this very venue, so he’ll come into this thing feeling like it’s his to lose. Alcaraz has the highest clay-court Elo rating of anybody in the men’s game right now, and his game is a perfect match for these conditions. Alcaraz is the fastest player on the planet, so it’s hard to get the ball by him on slower courts. He also has the ability to hit every shot in the book, but he’s especially strong when it comes to utilizing topspin. Combining that with his all-world baseline power and uncanny variety makes it understandable he’s the favorite.
Djokovic has had an up-and-down 2024 season, but he has won three majors at Roland Garros. The 24-time Grand Slam champion also happened to find his game at Wimbledon, looking as sharp as he has all year long. Djokovic might be 37 years old, but he keeps himself in tremendous shape. And his best level is capable of winning on any given day. Djokovic is precise with his serve, he’s one of the best returners of all time and he’s arguably the most well-rounded baseline player in the history of the sport. Djokovic is also elite at the net. Not only does Djokovic have the game to win gold, but he also has the motivation. Nobody in the history of tennis has a better resume than Djokovic, but he has never won gold for Serbia. He’ll be eager to change that.
Sinner is the world No. 1 and has been the best player in tennis for most of 2024. However, the Italian was forced to withdraw from this even due to tonsilitis. It’s a bit of a shame considering Sinner’s big concern recently has been his health and fitness. Hopefully he can get himself right for the upcoming hard-court season. But this was definitely an opportunity that got away from him, as he would have had a real shot in a best-of-three event.
Dark Horse
Casper Ruud (16-1)
Ruud suffered an early exit at Wimbledon and people were quick to clown him for that, but he’s a two-time French Open runner-up and loves to play on clay. Ruud has the third-highest raw clay-court Elo rating in the men’s game, and he has won more matches than everybody but Sebastian Baez on this surface over the last 52 weeks. Ruud also had a real shot at making a third French Open final in a row this year, but he was dealing with an illness in his loss to Alexander Zverev in the semis. If he was healthy, he might have won that match. Ruud took the first set and looked like he was going to cruise to a victory.
Ruud’s game is just hard to beat in slower conditions, as he’s a solid server, hits powerful, topspin-heavy shots from the baseline and maneuvers himself around the court at an elite level. So, don’t rule him out when trying to figure out who will win the gold. Ruud just might sneak up on you and take it home for Norway.
Pick To Win
Alexander Zverev (+750)
I was really intrigued by the idea of taking Rafael Nadal at 12-1 odds before this event. He had just opted to skip out on Wimbledon to prepare strictly on clay. That move looked like it paid off with Nadal having performed at a pretty high level in Bastad last week. However, Nadal’s level dipped as he got deeper in that tournament, and he turned in a miserable effort against Nuno Borges in the final. Now, Nadal’s team is saying that the Spaniard is dealing with a hamstring injury that could prevent him from playing singles. That said, I think it’s a better idea to play Zverev, if you’re looking to avoid the chalkier picks.
Zverev won the gold medal the last time these players competed in the Olympic Games, and it’s pretty clear he’s a top-five player in the world on the dirt. Zverev has also won his biggest tournaments in best-of-three events, so he likes playing in shorter matches. Zverev also happens to have a pretty good draw. The best players he’ll face before getting way deeper in the tournament would be Nicolas Jarry, Lorenzo Musetti, Jack Draper or Taylor Fritz. I’d like his chances against any of those guys on this surface, and I also feel good about his ability to level up and beat some top-tier players later on in the tournament.
Zverev is 20-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks and his ability to rack up holds gives him a great chance in any match. Also, he might have a weak forehand, but the higher bounces in Paris will put the ball right in his strike zone.
Women’s Tennis
Top Contenders
Iga Swiatek (-190)
It really only makes sense to list Swiatek here. Swiatek, who won the 2024 French Open and has now won four titles at Roland Garros, has a career record of 35-2 at this venue. She’s also 84-10 on clay at the WTA level, in general. Swiatek is a good spot server, a relentless returner and is absolutely impenetrable as a baseline player. She gets everything back and then turns defense into offense with her vicious backhand and topspin-heavy forehand. Poland isn’t expected to be much of a factor in the Olympic Games, but Swiatek makes her country extremely relevant on the red clay.
Dark Horse
Barbora Krejcikova (22-1)
Krejcikova was a forgotten woman before putting herself back on the map with a win at Wimbledon. The 28-year-old is a former world No. 2 and she clearly has the ability to be a top-five player again. She just needs to find a way to stay healthy, which has been difficult over the last few seasons. But now that Krejcikova is on the court and feeling good physically, there’s no reason she can’t make some noise in the Olympic Games.
The Czech star won the French Open in 2021 and really enjoys playing in slower conditions. Krejcikova can throw opponents off with her ability to utilize slice, and she’s also just extremely precise with her ground strokes. Nothing about her game will absolutely wow you, but she’s solid in every regard and really understands match psychology.
Pick To Win
Iga Swiatek (-190)
With Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina not in the field, it’s just hard to pinpoint a player that can actually beat Swiatek in these conditions. Coco Gauff is the second-highest player on the odds board, but Swiatek has absolutely dominated their head-to-head series. Honestly, the only player in the field that has given Swiatek any trouble is Jelena Ostapenko, who is 4-0 in their four career matchups. But you can’t lay off Swiatek strictly because of Ostapenko’s presence in her draw. If the two meet in this tournament, Swiatek would be a big favorite. So, don’t overthink this. It might be a little juicy to back the Pole, but this is the only way you should play the women’s side of things.
