Club World Cup Preview – Best Bets for July 4-5
Fluminense vs. Al Hilal – Under 2.5 goals @ -120
We are down to the last eight in the Club World Cup, and the first quarterfinal comes from the side of the draw that has really opened up. Pre-tournament, anyone plotting the bracket through to this stage would likely have had a Manchester City vs. Inter Milan tie, but both were knocked out in the Round of 16, and their conquerors do battle here instead.
Over the years, one of my profitable strategies has been to fade a team, or player in tennis, in the match after a huge performance or shock win. One of my other go-to bets has been backing Under 2.5 goals. I have the opportunity to combine both of those in this fixture in Orlando.
Fluminense caused one of the shocks of the tournament by knocking out Inter after flying out of the traps and scoring an early goal. Marshalled superbly by 40-year-old Thiago Silva, with 44-year-old goalkeeper Fabio behind him, they defended resolutely before closing the game out with a late second goal.
The Brazilians have been known for winning ugly and ensuring they limit their opponents to very few big chances. They are unbeaten in 10 games, with seven of those cashing for Under 2.5 goals, including three of their four games in this competition, including 0-0 ties with Dortmund and Mamelodi.
A day later, Al-Hilal arguably produced the biggest shock in knocking out Manchester City after extra time in one of the best games we have seen so far. That result was what Saudi soccer had been dreaming of and puts it on the map as they became the first Asian team to beat a European opponent in the Club World Cup.
The win is still being talked about days later. Celebrating fans have become memes, as is the way when anyone gets one over Pep Guardiola in a high-profile fixture. Coming back down to earth after that will take some doing, and a flat performance would not surprise me in the least.
Simone Inzaghi let City dominate the ball (71%) and invited them into soaking up 30 attempts at their goal, but knowing they could then hurt the English side on the counter. They ruthlessly took their chances when they came along. They will not get that opportunity against their well-organized, tight, compact opponents here.
I can see both sides canceling each other out in a fierce battle of few openings. The longer the game stays level, the greater fear of losing creeps in with a place in the final four up for grabs. This looks like a golden opportunity to take the Under 2.5 goals and at -120 a value price.
Palmeiras vs. Chelsea – Chelsea to win @ +110
The tournament has really opened up for Chelsea. Having finished runners-up in Group D, they were due to face European powerhouse Bayern Munich in the last 16, but instead it was a Benfica side that had upset the German champions in their section.
Enzo Maresca’s men beat both the weather and their Portuguese opponents to claim their place in the quarterfinals. Having been forced off by a two-hour storm stoppage when 1-0 up with only five minutes remaining, they conceded an equalizing penalty in the fifth minute of added time.
Extra time proved the Londoners have an unrivalled strength in depth as they regrouped and strolled to a comprehensive 4-1 victory. The subsequent elimination of both Manchester City and Inter Milan will give them supreme confidence they will at least make it to the final.
Palmeiras is another team that had a big win in the round of 16. Defeating Brazilian rivals Botafogo in extra time, a side they had not gotten the better of in their last five meetings.
Abel Ferreira’s men are yet to be beaten but have leaned heavily on a defense that has kept three clean sheets. They are yet to score a goal before the 49th minute, and this will represent a big jump in class after fixtures against a poor Porto outfit, Al Ahly, Inter Miami, and then Botafogo.
Chelsea have won 10 of their last 13 games across all competitions, with their only Club World Cup defeat coming to Flamengo in a match where they had Nicolas Jackson sent off with over 20 minutes remaining. He returns to bolster their attack and will be joined by new $80 million signing João Pedro, who joined from Brighton on Wednesday.
Yes, key midfielder Moisés Caicedo is unavailable for this match, but that is balanced by defensive issues for Palmeiras, who have both Joaquin Piquerez and captain Gustavo Gomez suspended. There is also an interesting dynamic that the Brazilians’ most creative player, Estêvão, will be joining Chelsea immediately after the tournament ends.
At this stage of the competition, teams with the strongest depth will hold a significant advantage. To get plus money on the Premier League side, getting the job done in regular time is too good an opportunity to pass up.
PSG vs. Bayern Munich – PSG to win @ +130
Well, what a game we have in store here. Two of Europe’s best and biggest meet in Atlanta, which means that despite a midday kickoff on Saturday, the stadium’s air conditioning system will ensure a perfect playing environment.
Bayern have an excellent record against PSG, winning each of the last four meetings, including in the most recent Champions League campaign. Of course, the Parisians went on to win that competition. I am taking them to win this in regular time, too.
Getting Luis Enrique’s men at plus money is something of a blind play regardless of their opponent, but I really think they have the tools to hurt the Germans. They have won eight of their last nine fixtures across all competitions and have bounced back from the only defeat in that run – a 1-0 defeat to Botafogo during the group stages.
PSG also has the advantage of having played their last game in Atlanta, a 4-0 thrashing of Miami, with all the goals coming in the first half, meaning they could rest and rotate after the interval. They also started the tournament with two games in Pasadena before a final group game in Seattle.
Bayern have had to travel for each fixture. Starting in Cincinnati, they played in Miami, then Charlotte, before heading back to the Hard Rock stadium for their last 16 clash with Flamengo.
In a tournament where fresh legs are getting few and far between, the Champions League winners gave Ousmane Dembélé the final 30 minutes against Miami, his first appearance after missing the opening three games. The -250 favorite to win the Ballon d’Or has smashed 32 goals for his side across all competitions. He could be a real game changer.
The goal conceded against Botafogo remains their only concession of the tournament and the only one in their last six fixtures. On the other hand, Bayern have only kept a clean sheet against the part-timers of Auckland City, whom they beat 10-0. They shipped twice against Flamengo, losing both the shot count (12-8) and the xG battle (1.60-1.08). A repeat of that will be a recipe for disaster against their ruthless last eight opponents.
The final tick in the box for me is in the technical area. I saw recently an article that rated Luis Enrique as the best current manager in the world, and I can’t argue.
The 55-year-old secured the top prize in European soccer for his current employers, where the likes of Carlo Ancelotti, Unai Emery, Thomas Tuchel and Mauricio Pochettino failed. He’s also done that with an incredible style of play, harnessing individual brilliance to form something of a super team.
Vincent Kompany just made it into the top 20 of that same list. I can’t see him get the better of his more experienced rival for a second time. I’m fully behind PSG adding World champions to their honors list of 2025, and that means a victory over the German champions in what should be a great watch.
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund – Federico Valverde to score @ +400
The last quarterfinal is a really interesting clash. For me, the toughest to call. The sportsbooks make Real Madrid -150 favorites to win in regular time and -$3 to qualify, but I have a feeling Dortmund is at their most dangerous when written off as the underdog.
Xabi Alonso has only been in charge of the Spanish giants since the first fixture of this competition after taking over from the legendary Carlo Ancelotti, and so is learning about his new team in front of a global audience game by game. They deservedly beat Juventus in the last 16, but did offer up a few very presentable chances, which, if taken, could have totally changed the outcome.
Under Niko Kovač, the Germans have been a different animal and, on their day, can cause any side on the planet problems. Just ask Barcelona, who thought they were on cruise control to the last four of the Champions League until a 3-1 defeat at Signal Iduna Park gave them a real fright.
That win was the first of nine in their last 10 games, scoring multiple times in eight of those. In Serhou Guirassy, they have one of the most in-form strikers on the planet, plundering 12 goals in his last 10 appearances for his club, including both in the 2-1 defeat of Monterrey in the last round.
All that being said, Madrid seems to have BVB’s number, winning each of the last four meetings, including a 5-2 victory in October. So, I will be siding with one of their players for my selection in this game.
Kylian Mbappe made his return from illness for a late cameo against Juventus but may not displace Gonzalo García from the starting lineup after the 21-year-old got the only goal of the game and his third of the tournament. He’s been directly involved in at least one goal in all four of Madrid’s matches and will be one to keep an eye on.
Vinícius Júnior has been quiet so far. Although Jude will be the only Bellingham on the pitch with brother Jobe suspended, both are big game players and will want centre stage. Trent Alexander-Arnold provided the assist, his first for his new club, against Juve, and is always of interest in that market.
However, I am overlooking all of that to back a player I love to watch and one who has been likened to Steven Gerrard by his new manager. Ancelotti also described him as the most important in his team – praise indeed.
Such is Alonso’s admiration for his new captain, I get the sense he is building this side around the Uruguayan to get the best from him. That has been clear to see in this tournament, where the 26-year-old has fired in 15 shots with eight on target, scoring twice.
Six of those shots came against the Italians last time out, where he seemed to pop up all over the pitch. Four of those attempts drew saves from Michele Di Gregorio, who prevented him getting on the scoresheet for a third successive game.
At +400, Valverde looks a massive price to get back amongst the goals here.
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Groups Preview
Top Goalscorers Betting Preview
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