Crystal Palace vs. West Ham EPL Prediction:
The season’s opening weekend was one to be an Unders bettor—a total of 21 goals with seven of the 10 fixtures cashing for those holding under 2.5 goals tickets.
However, Crystal Palace and West Ham were involved in two of the three games that saw at least three goals. I am taking that trend to continue here and backing Over 2.5 goals at -125.
Both sides lost 2-1 and both can count themselves unlucky not to have at least drawn their respective games. Palace’s Eberechi Eze had a perfectly good wonder goal ruled out for a coming together off the ball.
West Ham’s Tomáš Souček missed a massive opportunity that had an xG rating of 0.93 as his side posted the second-highest expected goals tally of the week. Putting that into context, a penalty is rated as xG of 0.76 (76% chance of scoring).
It feels like the Eagles are still being rated on how they performed under Roy Hodgson. Since the arrival of Oliver Glasner, their home games have been incredibly entertaining.
Their last 10 league fixtures at Selhurst Park have seen a total of 42 goals averaging 4.20 per game. Eight of those have cashed for Over 2.5 bettors. They have now scored in each of their last 12 Premier League games on home soil.
The Hammers have changed their manager, but it may take a few games for Julen Lopetegui to iron out their defensive weaknesses, as only the three relegated teams conceded more goals in the last campaign. Over 2.5 has cashed in each of their last six road trips and in 16 of their last 18. They have scored in five of the last six, conceded in each of the last nine and only kept one clean sheet away from home last season.
Money has been spent on improving the attack (they averaged 1.4 xG per game last season), so West Ham will cause problems to a Palace defense that have lost centerback Joachim Andersen to Fulham with his partner Marc Guéhi also on the verge of a move to Newcastle.
This game finished 5-2 last season but was played as recently as April and made a sequence of five head-to-head clashes at Selhurst Park cashing on the Over 2.5 goals line. There were 27 goals scored at an average of 5.40 across those five meetings.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Over 2.5 goals at -125.
