Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
The title race is officially over. Liverpool became champions last weekend, as we assumed they would for some time. The three promoted sides have all gone straight back down, as has looked the case for most of the season. But there is still plenty to play for ahead of match day 35 in the English Premier League, a set of games that come in the middle of huge European fixtures for a few sides.
One of those teams is Arsenal, who lost 1-0 at home to Paris Saint-Germain and now, in Mikel Arteta’s words, must ‘do something special’ in the return leg on Wednesday. A price of +104 for the Gunners to beat Bournemouth is a very tempting one, but they will field a rotated side, so my best bet of the week is for Under 2.5 goals.
Defensively, it will be much the same, with possibly the fit again Ben White starting the game. That adds more strength to my selection. However, in the attack, they are limited anyway. When they do make changes, they are even less likely to score more than one or two goals.
Key men like Declan Rice appeared tired in midweek, while Bukayo Saka still needs his minutes managed. Team news will be crucial, but even with several changes, you should expect them to edge it and scrape past the Cherries.
Andoni Iraola’s men appeared to be the first team this season to down tools a little and have one foot on the beach. They have only won one of their last 11 fixtures across all competitions and were really poor last weekend against Manchester United, finally throwing a 1-0 lead away in stoppage time.
I looked back at Arsenal’s games following their midweek fixtures in the knockout stages of the Champions League this season. Following games against PSV they drew 1-1 at Manchester United and beat Chelsea 1-0 at home. After both legs of the quarter final with Real Madrid, they drew 1-1 at home to Brentford and rode the crest of the wave after victory at the Bernabéu by thrashing Ipswich 4-0.
So, three of those four games cashed Unders. I see a similar pattern to this fixture. It is impossible to overstate how big the game in Paris is, but they will not want to take another defeat with them there, and likely more important is to avoid injuries.
I can see them winning this 1-0 or 2-0, but ultimately taking Unders is the better play to keep a 0-0 or 1-1 onside. The last three Bournemouth games have seen Under 2.5 goals cash, and they are a side that have run out of steam after a season that promised so much is going to end with a mid-table finish.
EPL Pick: Arsenal vs Bournemouth – Under 2.5 goals at -108.
Brighton vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Brighton’s season has unravelled somewhat, and it looks like it will end up being a very underwhelming one. At the start of the campaign, everyone was falling over themselves to compliment the Seagulls on another shrewd piece of recruitment as the youngest permanent head coach in the competition’s history, 31-year-old Fabian Hürzeler, was taking the Premier League by storm.
Fans of the south coast side were dreaming of Champions League qualification and possibly winning the FA Cup after spending a lot of money. In March, owner Tony Bloom was talking about an exciting few weeks for his club, but since then, it has only gone backwards; without doubt, that means there is now pressure on the manager.
The main reason for the downturn in form and the biggest cause for concern is the number of goals they are conceding. They dominate matches, but opponents know they can get at them and hurt them, as shown by the fact Brighton have conceded at least two goals in each of their last six league games.
Newcastle’s brand of direct, fast, flowing soccer is just right to take advantage of those weaknesses and extend that run of goals conceded further. Eddie Howe’s men have a top-five finish in their own hands. That starts with a big victory here at the Amex in a must-win match, given they have fixtures with Chelsea and Arsenal up next.
There are goals throughout the team, threats all over the pitch, and that has seen the Geordies score at least two goals in six of their last seven games across all competitions. That includes five against Crystal Palace, four against Manchester United and two against champions Liverpool.
Brighton is the sort of side that are happy to get involved in an end-to-end shootout and back themselves to come out on top. That is not the game to play against this Newcastle side that offers a massive level of goal threat, with the likes of Isak, Murphy, Barnes and Gordon.
Yes, I fully expect Brighton to score, but I think the visitors are more than capable of scoring two or three.
EPL Pick: Brighton vs Newcastle – Newcastle to win at +128.
Leicester vs. Southampton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
These two sides have been totally outclassed all season. As the weeks have gone by, the prices have reflected that more and more. Now, they play each other, and it gets interesting!
Both have been labelled the worst side in the Premier League this year, and this becomes a little bit about pride. As a result, expect both to give it a go in a match they finally have justifiable reason to think they can win.
Leicester has a very good record against Southampton, even winning 9-0 at the Saints in 2019, and who scored a hat trick in that match? Jamie Vardy. I mentioned pride earlier, and no Foxes player has suffered more than him from the dismal turn this season has taken.
The 38-year-old has just announced that at the end of the current campaign, he will be leaving the club he joined in 2012. As a club legend and with his side confirmed as relegated, the remaining matches will all be about him. I am looking to get ahead of the curve here by getting in early on an obvious public play.
Vardy will revel in the spotlight being on him. He will be determined to go out with a bang. Having been instrumental in the club winning the Premier League and FA Cup, he was hailed as their greatest-ever player in a recent statement.
The last two home games couldn’t be kinder with the third of the relegated sides, Ipswich, providing the opposition to bring the curtain down on this season’s action at the King Power stadium. I am certain Vardy will score in at least one of those fixtures.
Here is where we look to get ahead of the public. Against rock-bottom Southampton, a side that has conceded a league high 80 goals this season, he is +180 to score. In that last game against Ipswich, he will be -250 because it will be in people’s minds to back him to sign off with a goal.
Be one step ahead of the game and get on now!
EPL Pick: Leicester vs Southampton – Jamie Vardy to score at +180.
