EPL and FA Cup Best Bets and Predictions April 26-27:
Here are this week’s EPL and FA Cup predictions:
Newcastle vs. Ipswich
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
It’s FA Cup semifinal weekend in England, which means a reduced slate of seven Premier League fixtures to attack. However, there is a bet that catches my eye from one of the games at Wembley, but more of that later. This week also sees a host of heavy favorites, mainly as they are the sides with something to play for against opponents with at least one foot “on the beach.”
One of those big minus money favorites is Newcastle. In fact, they are the biggest at odds of -500 to beat all but already relegated Ipswich. Of course, that isn’t the bet I am putting up, but I am taking them on the -2 Asian Handicap at -103.
Their home form is exceptional this season, so I think they win this and win it well. They have won their last two games at St. James Park by three goals, the margin we need here to cash in full, scoring at least three times in seven of their last 10 league fixtures on home soil.
Over the season, Ipswich have proved they have a goal in them, but in recent weeks, that threat has dried up. The trouble for Kieran McKenna is that he has been unable to stop his side from conceding goals at an alarming rate.
Last week, the gap between the Tractor Boys and the top end of the table was once again clear for all to see as Arsenal thrashed them 4-0 at their own stadium. That was far from a one, having conceded four or more goals on nine occasions this term, one of which was to Newcastle in the reverse fixture, and another 4-0 hammering at Portman Road.
This is all about Newcastle and their battle for a Champions League place by finishing in the top five. That race could come down to goal difference with the Geordies two points ahead of Chelsea in sixth but tied on +18 goal difference.
That means Eddie Howe’s men won’t stop if they take a lead here. With much tougher fixtures to come, they need to make the most of this game. That aim is helped with Ipswich defender Leif Davis suspended after his horror tackle last weekend, and their better players will likely be left out with one eye on who will be playing next season in the Championship.
I genuinely think Newcastle run riot here and can see them winning 4-0 or 5-0. A reminder we need a win by three or more goals to cash our ticket, while a victory margin of exactly two would see a full stake refund.
EPL Pick: Newcastle -2 Asian Handicap at -103.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:15 p.m. ET
So on to the FA Cup for my next best bet of the weekend. My focus is on the first of the two semifinal fixtures, and I like goals in this match and Over 2.5 at +102 to be precise.
This is also a game I will be attending at Wembley Stadium to cheer them on, and I expect a really good match. About six weeks ago, this would have been a pick ’em contest, but now Villa are clear favorites, although Palace will come into the game with optimism after a decent showing in their 2-2 tie at Arsenal on Wednesday. It will also be interesting to see how Unai Emery picks his side up after conceding that very late winner to Manchester City on Tuesday.
The Villains have played a lot of soccer over the recent weeks, with big games not just in this competition but also in the Premier League and Champions League. They stick to the same game plan, most of their fixtures are entertaining, as was the case in both legs of their quarterfinal against Paris Saint-Germain in Europe.
Both meetings were a great watch, 3-1 and 3-2, lots of goals, lots of chances, really open and exciting despite the huge stakes at play. Crystal Palace will relish this game playing out in a similar manner, given how they love to hit sides on the counterattack, utilizing the likes of Eze with his skill, the pace and power of Mateta, Sarr, who has been a revelation, all supported by their attacking fullbacks.
These two teams have already met three times this season. There was a 2-2 tie in the league at Villa Park, with Palace registering a thumping 4-1 win in the reverse and a 2-1 victory on the road in the Carabao Cup.
Last season, both the home sides won the league games, Villa 3-1 and Palace 5-0. An average of 4.2 goals per game in the most recent history, with Over 2.5 goals cashing in all five fixtures.
I am looking forward to being treated to a bit of a show on Saturday in a game full of goals, and one I have a sneaky feeling the Eagles might just edge.
FA Cup Pick: Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa – Over 2.5 goals at +102.
Chelsea vs. Everton
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Those looking a little further ahead will know Chelsea have a European semifinal to play on Thursday, but don’t let that impact your thinking on this fixture. The Europa Conference League barely registers on their thinking at this stage. They are priced at -275 to win the first leg away at Djurgårdens, and for good reason. They will win it easily.
The main focus for Enzo Maresca right now is to ensure his side finishes in the top five of the Premier League and qualifies for next season’s Champions League. Failure to do so will likely lead to him looking for a new job.
As I mentioned at the top of this piece, there are a lot of sides in action this weekend with nothing to play for. Everton falls into that category. David Moyes is a proud man, an old-school manager who will want his team to go to the final whistle on the final day, but despite doing very well since returning to the club, the Toffees are not in great form.
The Merseyside club have only won one of their last eight fixtures, albeit only losing two of those matches, with the other five ending in a tie. While Chelsea come into this clash off the back of a massive win at rivals Fulham, who they trailed going into the final five minutes, only to turn it around with two very late goals.
All done while their best players are still struggling for form. Nicolas Jackson hasn’t looked the same player since his injury. Cole Palmer has been totally missing for the last couple of months.
That in itself is a problem, with other members of the squad needing to step up. As a result, Chelsea has either dropped points or just gotten over the line like last weekend. On top of that, they have some huge matches coming up – Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, and Nottingham Forest, which makes this a must-win.
Therefore, I think this will be a nervy Stamford Bridge and we will see a tight match unfold. Everton are very strong defensively, will look to frustrate the home side and their supporters before trying to nick a goal, exactly what they did in their 1-0 win at Forest on their last road trip.
For their part, Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four at home. So I am coming at this game from an anti-goals angle. The reverse fixture just before Christmas was a 0-0 tie, the seventh time in the last nine meetings there have been fewer than three goals, while the last seven Everton league games have cashed on Under 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 goals is the play here at -109.
EPL Pick: Chelsea vs. Everton – Under 2.5 goals at -109.
