EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 10-13
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
West Ham vs. Wolves
Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET
The Premier League action returns after a three-week absence for the international break and FA Cup quarter finals. This column returns with a bang with four best bets involving sides at both ends of the table.
My best bet comes from the game involving two of the bottom three, as Wolves travel to West Ham. The Hammers were knocked out of the FA Cup by Leeds on Sunday, but I saw enough in that defeat to make me believe they have a great chance of survival.
The performance in coming back from 2-0 down to unluckily lose on penalties was appreciated by their fans. Expect them to get right behind the team here in what they know is a huge match. They were unlucky to have a goal ruled out for offside and across the tie created the better chances.
A replication of that fighting spirit and support from the fans will make West Ham a tough side to beat on home soil. That starts here, and I don’t think the fact they played on Sunday and have to go again on Friday is a negative.
Nuno Espírito Santo has guided his team to a seven-game unbeaten run at the London Stadium and has found a way to get them scoring goals. That will be helped further by the possibility of the return of Crysencio Summerville, who was their best player before he got injured and missed the last three games.
They now take on a Wolves side who are still bottom of the table and will likely be officially relegated by the end of the month. Rob Edwards has improved the performances, but they are still without a win on the road in the league and will soon be turning their attention fully to next season in the Championship.
The visitors have only scored seven road goals all season and simply do not have the firepower to trouble hosts who must win this fixture. Usually, the price factors in that scenario, but I do not believe that to be the case here.
In years gone by, I would expect this price to be around -175, but here we can get on at -127, which screams value to me.
EPL Best Bet: West Ham vs Wolves – West Ham to win at -127.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
In the 11 Premier League games Crystal Palace have played after a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, they have only won two, and one of those victories was against rock bottom Wolves. We are now at the business end of the competition, so with Eagles fans dreaming of a first European trophy, expect even more focus to be placed there as opposed to the league where they are certain to finish mid-table.
Oliver Glasner will also be doing all he can to win the Conference League. His departure at the end of the season has been confirmed, so another trophy on his CV will do him no harm in getting a bigger job.
For Newcastle, the break has done them a lot of good with a few key players recovered from injury. None more so than influential skipper Bruno Guimaraes, who contributes both offensively and defensively.
There is a little bit of pressure on Eddie Howe with the Newcastle owners expecting more from this season. He will want to end the campaign strong and push up the table, especially as the last game before the break saw them beaten by local rivals Sunderland.
As a result of all those factors, I must take Newcastle to win here and keep their good head-to-head record going. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 and have only suffered one defeat to Palace across the last 10 meetings.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle – Newcastle to win at +135.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
There has been a drift on Manchester City since markets opened which surprises me. But that makes them a must bet at around +120.
Erling Haaland announced his return to form with a superb hat-trick in the 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool last weekend in the FA Cup. The swagger is back for him, as it is for the side as a whole, who followed up their excellent League Cup final win over Arsenal in some style.
This is the time of the season where City turns on the afterburners and goes on a streak of winning matches. They should have too much for a Chelsea side that seems to once again have problems behind the scenes.
Enzo Fernández has been suspended by the club for two games as punishment for disrespectful comments made in an interview. Reece James is a big miss through injury, while Cole Palmer’s form has fallen off a cliff. He looks totally disinterested.
Liam Rosenior is providing plenty of quotes but not a lot of substance to suggest he is anything other than massively out of his depth. He has been found out tactically every time he has faced an experienced, good manager, losing 8-2 across two legs to PSG, beaten by Newcastle and twice by Arsenal, even allowing Everton to cruise to a 3-0 win.
Other than a 4-4 tie in 2023, City have won their last four league visits here and are unbeaten in nine meetings across all venues and competitions. In normal circumstances, you would expect the Stamford Bridge crowd to turn on their team in defeat, but that may not happen as they would see it as a useful result in stopping London rivals Arsenal winning the title.
In short, the price here represents massive value and is too good to turn down.
EPL Best Bet: Chelsea vs Manchester City – Manchester City to win at +120.
Manchester United vs Leeds
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Leeds managed to get over the line and through to the FA Cup semi-final against West Ham despite throwing a two-goal lead away in added on time. However, I think that may be a distraction for them as we enter the final few games of the season.
They face Chelsea in that Wembley showdown, and with the history between the two sides and a chance to make a showpiece final, Daniel Farke will have to go strong with his lineup. That already backfired in the Quarter Final, losing their best player in Anton Stach, who could be out for a while with a ligament ankle injury.
Here they face a Manchester United side who are looking so good right now. The Red Devils have won their last five home league games, scoring at least twice in all and have only lost one of their last 14 at Old Trafford.
Leeds has a terrible record at this ground, too. They are yet to win here in the Premier League era, with their last victory coming way back in 1981.
The Elland Road club has only one win on the road in the league this season. That sole success was against rock-bottom Wolves in September.
In what looks like being a really tough end to the season for Leeds, it looks the opposite for Manchester United. Sitting pretty in third, they look set to qualify for next season’s Champions League and likely do it in some style with all their attacking talent hitting form.
Bruno Fernandes is closing in on the all-time Premier League assist record, Sesko is scoring lots of goals as an impact player off the bench, with Mbeumo and Cunha chipping in too. The home side looks to have far too much firepower for the visitors, who could be deep in the relegation dog fight come kick off, and I expect them to be in a worse position at the final whistle.
The price of -175 is too short to tip, so playing the -1 Asian Handicap looks the best way in. A win by a single goal gets a full stake refund, with a victory by two or more goals cashing the bet in full.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Leeds – Manchester United -1 Asian Handicap at +104.
