EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 19-20:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Leicester vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
It’s a tricky-looking set of fixtures in the Premier League this weekend, as we look to work out how sides will react to big wins and heartbreaking defeats in Europe, as well as where their motivation lies for the remainder of the campaign. Therefore, no surprise that my best bet is from a game where neither side had any midweek involvement and whose fate looks sealed, albeit at opposite ends of the table.
It is only a matter of time before Liverpool are officially crowned as title winners, while Leicester’s immediate return to the second tier could be confirmed before they kick off here if results elsewhere go against them. Off the pitch, things have stabilized for the champions-elect with both Mo Salah and now Virgil van Dijk signing new contracts, meaning full focus can be given to getting over the line for a record-equaling 20th top-flight title.
Arne Slot has a couple of injuries to contend with, but more than enough strength in the depth of his squad to cope. While the Foxes were celebrating last weekend as well, after scoring their first Premier League goal in 13 hours of action and ending a run of eight successive defeats.
Those goals came on the road at Brighton, so their home form remains abysmal. They have lost their last eight league games on home soil and haven’t scored in any of them.
Therefore, we revert to the norm here and back a Liverpool win-to-nil. Last week, the Seagulls were priced at -120, far too skinny to touch. But here, we have the best side in England, who are -455 to win, available at -105 to do so without conceding a goal.
Approaching plus money, this bet is incredible value and very much worthy of best bet status on the Premier League card. We can expect to see why there are 58 points separating these two sides, and why Leicester have only scored a joint league low 11 goals in 16 home games.
EPL Pick: Liverpool to win to nil at -105.
Everton vs. Manchester City
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
When David Moyes returned to Everton, we were all shocked to see him set his side up to play attacking, expansive soccer and provide games full of goals. However, in recent weeks, normality has been restored, and we are seeing his team built on the foundations of a strong defense, involved in tight, low-scoring matches of fine margins.
Every single one of their last six fixtures has seen Under 2.5 goals bettors cash their tickets. There are three remaining games to be played at Goodison Park before the move to a new home, with relegation certainties Ipswich and Southampton providing the last two opponents.
That means this clash with current champions Manchester City will be their last big match against elite opposition at their famous old stadium. In any other season, it would have been a fair assumption that with nothing to play for, Everton would ease up and go through the motions. The fact that this is their last big fixture here, you just know they are going to make it a very tough afternoon for Pep and his men.
In a season where it has been well documented City have been way below par, it is incredible to think they could still finish third. They visit Merseyside still without Haaland but in reasonable form with Omar Marmoush proving to be a very decent understudy, most recently in that come-from-behind 5-2 thrashing of Crystal Palace last weekend.
One absolute given is there will be an electric atmosphere come kickoff on this Bank Holiday weekend in the UK. The reverse fixture on Boxing Day, another public holiday, ended in a 1-1 tie, and that was when Everton were really struggling.
The hosts are a very different side now, full of confidence and with the added boost of home-field advantage. Every game played in front of their fans recently has been a cup final, and after a defeat to Aston Villa in the first game of his second spell in charge, Moyes has overseen an unbeaten run of six league games at Goodison.
Like that reverse fixture, the last two games here ended 1-1, with the most recent being against second-place Arsenal. Therefore Under 2.5 goals looks a massive price at +102.
EPL Pick: Under 2.5 goals at +102.
West Ham vs. Southampton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Look at the stats and you will see West Ham are winless in five games and have only won three of their 13 under Graham Potter. However, I feel they have been a little unlucky across most of those matches. I think they win this and win it well.
The bare results don’t paint the full picture and doesn’t give the Hammers the credit they deserve for some decent performances. They played well in a 1-0 defeat to Wolves, should have beaten Bournemouth, hitting the frame of the goal twice in a 2-2 tie, and should have got something last weekend, conceding late on to lose 2-1 at Liverpool after hitting the bar on more than one occasion again.
I sense that before the end of the season, West Ham will hand out a big beating to someone, especially now that they have most of their players back from injury. Niklas Füllkrug looks quality every time he is on the pitch, providing the team with something different, an energy and focal point they have lacked in the absence of Michail Antonio.
At long last, Graham Potter has his best team to choose from. That means finally taking a few of the many chances they are creating. There is no better side to do that against than an already relegated Southampton, who are simply going through the motions until the end of what has been a truly dire season.
Simon Rusk has a thankless task in holding the fort until a permanent appointment in the summer, and the players know that. A man with little experience trying to manage a squad who have proved they are not good enough throughout the campaign and have no doubt got their agents busy looking for a way out of the exit.
This is a Saints side that has conceded in all but one of their 16 road trips in the league this term, and in each of their last 15 across all venues. They have no wins in nine across all competitions. In the league, they have just one win in their last 22 games, losing 18.
There is still a chance they will create history for the wrong reason this season. With 10 points across the entire campaign, they are still one short of the Premier League record set by Derby County in 2007-08 for the lowest total.
The wait for an 11th point will continue after their visit to the London Stadium. I think the Hammers will do a number on them. A price of -240 for them to win is clearly too short for me to put up as a bet, but the -134 on the -1 Asian Handicap is appealing and is my play here.
A full refund of our stake should West Ham only win by one goal, but we cash in full, if as expected, the home side wins by two or more.
EPL Pick: West Ham -1 Asian Handicap at -134.
