EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 2:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Manchester City vs. Leicester
Wednesday, 2:45 p.m. ET
After a two-week break, the EPL is back. Here are my three best bets from a full midweek slate. This is a rarity for my best bet in that it comes from the player to score market, but this really is a standout selection.
Manchester City were impressive in the second half at Bournemouth on Sunday, registering a come-from-behind 2-1 win to make it to the FA Cup semifinals for a seventh successive season.
Pep made some superb substitutions and tactical tweaks to enable his side to control the match. The hosts were unable to register a single shot in the second half. One of those changes was enforced, however, with Erling Haaland picking up an ankle injury to be replaced by Omar Marmoush.
The Egyptian took just two minutes after joining the action to score what turned out to be the winning goal. He is the selection here and given odds of +112, he must be my bet of the week.
Having signed from Eintracht Frankfurt in January, the 26-year-old is being eased into the City starting lineup but is undoubtedly the future of the club. He scored 15 goals in 17 Bundesliga appearances for his former club before the move to England, certainly enough to illustrate he may be the future but can have a say in the present too.
Just ask Newcastle, who were on the receiving end of a first-half Marmoush hat-trick in February. Having also hit the back of the net in the last Premier League game against Brighton, his strike at the weekend means he has now scored in successive fixtures for the current champions.
With Haaland expected to be out for this meeting against the current worst side in the Premier League in my opinion, with plenty of metrics to back it up, he has a real opportunity to boost those stats. It would not surprise me to see the home side, who are around -625, win here by a score line of 4-0 or 5-0.
If Haaland was lining up in this clash, he would be a massive minus money favorite somewhere in the region of -275. I was shocked to see his understudy, a player with four Premier League goals in seven appearances, priced at plus money.
Marmoush isn’t quite as prolific as Haaland, not many are, but he will lead the line here, is eager to impress, and looks hungry for goals. Then, when you look at the rest of the team, plenty of creativity but a lack of goal scorers, especially with the likes of Phil Foden out of form.
He will be pivotal in all of City’s attacking play, and we can take advantage at a huge value price.
EPL Pick: Omar Marmoush to score at +112.
Southampton vs. Crystal Palace
Wednesday, 2:45 p.m. ET
If it wasn’t for the first six matches of the season, Crystal Palace would be fourth in the EPL. That shows you how bad their start was, but also what a sustained excellent run of form they are on.
The Eagles have a lot of attacking players who catch the eye and make the headlines. I am a huge fan of Eberechi Eze, ever since he was a star for my side QPR, Jean-Philippe Mateta is proving himself to be one of the best strikers in Europe, with the likes of Sarr and Nketiah to back them up.
However, for months now I have been talking about how good Palace are at the other end of the pitch. Guehi has been linked with several top clubs and rightly so, USA international Chris Richards is superb, but the best of the lot is Maxence Lacroix.
The 24-year-old is an absolute Rolls-Royce of a defender and a perfect replacement for Virgil van Dijk when he leaves Liverpool. He, alongside the other two, is the foundation of what is becoming a fantastic season for the London side.
Incredibly, Palace are yet to concede a goal on the road in 2025. Arsenal was the last team to score against them way back on December 18th. Since then, they have made seven road trips. To make perfect use of that rock-solid defense, they have won the last six on their travels.
The last of which came at the weekend when they swept Fulham aside 3-0 at Craven Cottage, proving that alongside Nottingham Forest, they are one of the best counter-attacking sides in the Premier League. All of which set this bet up perfectly, Crystal Palace to win to nil.
Opponents Southampton are gone. They have been for some time, and there is absolutely no sign of improvement or upturn. They have nothing to play for, sitting rock-bottom on just nine points, eight behind Leicester and 17 from safety.
At home, the Saints have played 14 league games, won once, drawn once, and lost 12 times. That includes each of the last nine.
I would have a little concern with the quick turnaround from playing in the FA Cup on Saturday to this game if it were not for the manner of the victory, where they could rest key players in the second half. Added to that, the level of opponent here is so low.
In Oliver Glasner, Palace have a superb manager, one of the best in the league, certainly one of the most sought after, and I have full confidence in him getting his side right for this one. The job he has done is so impressive, having lost one of his top two talents in Michael Olise to Bayern Munich, but still getting his team to produce such excellent results.
They can add another win to the tally here and another clean sheet.
EPL Pick: Crystal Palace win to nil +155.
Bournemouth vs. Ipswich
Wednesday, 2:45 p.m. ET
Bournemouth have rightly picked up plenty of plaudits this season. They have been superb. However, I think they are really vulnerable here.
The FA Cup match against Manchester City on Sunday would have taken a lot out of them. Not only did they have some key players missing, but City controlled the second half, and the Cherries were left chasing shadows.
Whilst holding a position of challenging for European places in the league, it also looked like Bournemouth had a great shot of winning the FA Cup. Their fans would certainly have been full of hope, if not quite expectation.
But that defeat at the weekend could trigger a real drop off in performances between now and the end of the season. Andoni Iraola has, by Premier League standards, a small roster of players to work with. The international break has taken a lot out of the players who went away with their country, and the record of teams after a cup quarterfinal is poor.
Last season, of the eight teams involved in the FA Cup quarterfinals, only two of them won their following game. The year before, it was only one. To add further doubt around the ability to “go again,” there is usually a week between games. This year, it is two or three days.
Also, the talk of Bournemouth getting into the Champions League has to stop. One point from their last four Premier League games now sees them 10th, and they will need a lot of teams above them now to drop points for them to have a chance. Where they sit currently is prime position for teams to fade between now and the end of the EPL campaign.
In contrast to that, you want to side with teams that have something to play for. This is the time of year when those at the bottom of the table produce shock results as they throw everything at a survival bid.
Ipswich are nine points behind Wolves, with their inferior goal difference in reality making that 10 points. In short, they need to start winning soccer games now.
The Tractor Boys have had a couple of weeks to prepare for this game. They don’t have too many internationals in their squad, so they will have been able to work on the training pitch together and will be rested and ready to go for what for them is the first of nine huge fixtures down the home straight.
Kieran McKenna will sense a huge opportunity here against a deflated opponent who are winless in six fixtures with no win from their last five at home, losing four. Does that sound like a -286 favorite to you? No, me neither.
They should never be that price, and I am going firmly against it. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small play on a straight Ipswich win at +700, but the official play is with the visitors getting a 1.5 goal start. That means Bournemouth would need to win by two or more goals to prevent this bet cashing.
In their last 10 road trips, Ipswich have only lost by more than one goal once, and that came at champions-elect Liverpool. That run of fixtures includes trips to Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Aston Villa, all sides above Bournemouth in the table.
EPL Pick: Ipswich +1.5 Asian Handicap to win at -121.
