EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 5-7:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Leicester vs. Newcastle
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
It is a rapid turnaround after what was a brilliant midweek slate of Premier League action for us. I hope a few of you went a bit more aggressive on Ipswich as mentioned to cash a +700 ticket. The best bet also cashed at plus money with Omar Marmoush scoring against Leicester. I’m ready to go against the Foxes once more this weekend as we look to continue the good form.
This game isn’t until Monday, but this best bet looks well worth the wait. Newcastle is -205 to win this fixture, but “win to nil” is a massive +160, an incredible price for the League Cup winners to beat the relegation certainties AND not concede a goal.
Manchester City cruised to a 2-0 win against Leicester on Wednesday, keeping the ball for most of the match with the visitors offering absolutely nothing. They had two shots in the whole game and totaled and an expected goals of an abysmal 0.02. There is nothing positive going on at this soccer club whatsoever.
Ruud van Nistelrooy looks a broken man and is helpless to stop his side’s downward spiral, which is unravelling at a rate of knots. Not only do they not look like they will win anytime soon, but there appears to be no chance of them threatening to score a goal.
The Foxes have lost eight consecutive games and failed to score in seven of those defeats. In fact, their last nine losses have been to-nil. In the Premier League alone, they have lost 14 of their last 15 fixtures, with 12 of those coming to nil.
When these two sides met in December at St James Park, Newcastle ran riot and thrashed the visitors 4-0. At that point in the season, Leicester were out of the relegation zone and putting up a slightly better showing than what we are seeing right now.
Using a similar form line, Eddie Howe’s men travelled to Ipswich, the side directly above their opponents here and effortlessly won 4-0.
It seems the traders haven’t adjusted their prices accordingly to the current state of Leicester. This win to nil is the gift that keeps on giving. It is simply a bet at odds we can’t afford to pass up on.
Expect money to pour in for Newcastle as the midweek fixtures complete and attention turns to these weekend fixtures. Especially when more talk of the toxic atmosphere at Leicester home games comes out and their reliance on a 38-year-old striker, who is a pale imitation of his former self, continues.
On the opposite side, a striker in Alexander Isak who is at the peak of his powers and will see this as an incredible opportunity to close the gap in the race for the Golden Boot as the top goalscorer.
EPL Pick: Newcastle to win to nil at +160.
Ipswich vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I called the fade on Bournemouth right in midweek as Ipswich did me proud, taking a 2-0 lead before seeing the game out and clinching a massive three points at those huge odds of +700. Once again, I think they have a great chance of winning this match, although the odds of +175 aren’t quite so appealing and could continue to move in their favor as we get closer to kick off.
Tie no bet at -107 was a temptation, as I feel this is a game the visitors would be more than happy to share the points and move on. However, what I do like is goals.
This is a must-win match for the Tractor Boys. They have given themselves a chance with the defeat of Bournemouth, but they must follow that up with another win against their only rival for the last relegation place. For Wolves, it is more a case of must not lose.
Usually, that would ring alarm bells for Over 2.5 goals bettors, having a side content with a 0-0 is not helpful. However, I don’t think they are good enough defensively to play that way and will have to score to have a chance of any kind of positive result.
Both teams have scored in nine of the last 10 Ipswich matches across all competitions, with Town scoring in nine of those. That includes trips to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, far tougher assignments than a home fixture with Wolves.
Wanderers have scored in 10 of their last 11 fixtures and, with back-to-back wins, have proven they can score without their suspended talisman Matheus Cunha. Jorgen Strand Larsen has stepped up in the Brazilian’s absence and scored three goals in the last seven days.
The odds of -137 reflect the strong likelihood of both teams scoring at Portman Road. If that happens, the desire for the home side to push for a winner will all but guarantee another goal at one end or the other. All of which means the +100 on offer for Over 2.5 goals looks a big price.
It used to be the case in years gone by that when two relegation rivals met, it would be tight, tense and low scoring, often a 0-0 or 1-0 either way. Modern soccer has changed, and the philosophy has been more attack-minded, a gung-ho approach if anything.
I am sure this game will open up, and I am also certain Kieran McKenna will want to build on what will be a good atmosphere anyway by sending his players out on the front foot, to take control of the game and score early. The fact that no side in the division has been involved in more Over 2.5 goals games than Wolves (70% overall, 80% on the road) confirms this as a really strong play.
EPL Pick: Ipswich vs Wolves – Over 2.5 goals +100.
West Ham vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I mentioned in midweek that Bournemouth have had a superb season, but it looked the right time to start fading them. Nothing I saw on Wednesday in the defeat at home to Ipswich changed my opinion on that, so here I am again, taking West Ham to win at what looks a massive +220.
The Cherries are once again the favorites to win the match, and that left me scratching my head. I really do think they are done for the campaign. It’s been good, and their manager clearly has a huge future in the Premier League, but they are running on empty.
Andoni Iraola has a very small squad to work with, and he has gotten far more out of them than anyone could imagine. The injuries to key players have such a massive impact on the team. We saw that with Justin Kluivert missing against Ipswich. He is a doubt for this one too, and if there is any risk in making the situation worse, expect him to be on the sidelines once more. It would be silly to take a chance with him in what is a nothing game.
West Ham haven’t been great, but come into this fixture with a completely different mindset to the visitors. In contrast, they have had a really poor season, and their fans are still unhappy despite the change of manager.
However, this is the first time since Graham Potter took over that he has close to a full squad to choose from. An injury list that went into double figures is now down to just one or two first-team players. With German international Niclas Füllkrug back after three months, they have a striker keen to make up for lost time after his $35 million move from Borussia Dortmund.
The Hammers should have got a draw against Wolves on Tuesday. They were much the better side in the second half. They hit the frame of the goal, and the usually reliable Tomáš Souček missed an absolute sitter.
For me, the timing is perfect to play a faltering Bournemouth side. Iraola has to get his tired bunch of players, who must be deflated after coming so close to achieving something historic for the club, to go again. Potter, with one eye on next season, can task his group to prove they have a future at the club in front of their own fans.
This price still seems to be factoring the Bournemouth of six weeks ago – the one that swept Newcastle aside on their own turf. They are so far away from that right now, and therefore, the odds are just wrong.
EPL Pick: West Ham to win at +220
