EPL Best Bets and Predictions August 16-17:
Here are the EPL best bets for the EPL opening weekend:
Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
The English Premier League makes its much-anticipated return this weekend with champions Liverpool kicking off the new campaign on Friday as they host Bournemouth. The remaining fixtures, including some huge clashes, are spread over Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
It really is great to be back, and I can’t wait to bring you my three best bets for each and every match day. New season, yes, but a familiar look to my strongest play of the opening round of games, which is for Under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford.
This is going to be a very nervy, cagey contest at the City Ground ahead of a huge season for both clubs. Forest massively overachieved last season, both in terms of expectation and virtually all of the underlying metrics.
They qualified for Europe. For most of the campaign, they looked destined for the top four, but were really hanging on as they limped over the line on the final day to finish seventh. The warning signs are there for a side with a relatively small squad; spreading themselves so thin will make it hard for them to be competitive in the Premier League this time around.
Brentford have lost their head coach Thomas Frank to Tottenham, their top scorer Bryan Mbeumo to Manchester United, and their captain Christian Nørgaard to Arsenal. In Keith Andrews, they have brought in a complete rookie manager to replace Frank, and last season’s set-piece coach has confirmed that remaining star Yoane Wissa, who hit 19 goals last term, will miss this fixture amid rumors of a move to Newcastle.
This match already comes into the category for both bosses as a “must not lose” – they would be delighted to get a point on the board from match day one. Even at this incredibly early stage, a defeat here would pile the pressure on, as to lose two or three on the spin would put them bang in trouble.
Nuno Espírito Santo has a reputation for being a very pragmatic manager. We saw that at the end of last season, with eight of their last nine games cashing Under 2.5 goals and a joint league-high 13 of their 18 home fixtures also seeing no more than two goals. Although I don’t read too much into pre-season, that trend showed no sign of changing with six of their seven warm-up matches cashing Under, including an incredible five 0-0 ties.
Both head-to-head meetings last season ended 2-0 to the road side on the day, and virtually every judge I have spoken to over the summer has these two regressing from how they performed in the previous campaign. We can profit from what looks like a war of attrition and cash our first Under 2.5 goals bet of the season.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Brentford – Under 2.5 goals at -120.
Wolves vs. Manchester City
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Next up is the deposed champions Manchester City, looking to right the wrongs of a terrible campaign by their very high standards. I expect them to come out strong! That is nothing new. However, given they have won eight of nine opening day fixtures under Pep Guardiola, scoring 21 goals and conceding just three.
This is the most competitive Premier League in years, with four sides quoted in single figures, and with AFCON coming up at Christmas to offer some disruption, clubs will want to get points on the board early. As a result, Wolves could be in for something of a torrid time here.
City have made impressive moves in the transfer market, moving on the old guard Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker, cornerstones of those title-winning years. Omar Marmoush joined in January and will benefit from that bedding-in period. Tijjani Reijnders could be a contender for player of the season come May, with talk Gianluigi Donnarumma is poised to sign from PSG.
They join a squad that already boasts the prolific Erling Haaland and the soon-to-return, current Ballon d’Or, Rodri. That all spells out that Manchester City will be a force once again this season.
The honeymoon period for Vitor Pereira at Molineux appears to be over after picking up just one point from their final four league games of last season, and they went winless through pre-season. In contrast to City’s superb record at the start of a new campaign, Wolves’ could hardly be worse.
Since returning to the Premier League in 2018, they have incredibly only won once from 20 fixtures taking place in August. I just can’t see them improving that record against this determined and hungry City side.
Given that the price of Pep’s men to win this is -210, I am betting them to cover the -1.25 Asian Handicap, meaning they need to win by two or more goals for us to get a full win. However, if they do only win by a margin of one, we receive half of our stake back. But I can’t see anything other than a statement win by a wide margin here, even more so in a World Cup year with virtually all their squad looking to secure a place in the showpiece event next summer.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Manchester City – Manchester City -1.25 Asian Handicap at -117.
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
We end the opening weekend with the Club World Cup champions and a game that I will be attending. Pretty much the only reason I am going is to see Cole Palmer.
I expect Palmer to have an absolute monster of a season in World Cup year. For me, he is England’s most important player. If he is played in the right position, forget Jude Bellingham or Harry Kane, my national team should be built around him.
It seems Enzo Maresca has realized the same thing applies at club level. After playing him in different positions last season, he settled on one during that successful summer tournament, and boy how Palmer shone. He was exceptional—the player of the tournament with some incredible goals and assists.
Although Palace has a similar superstar in Eberechi Eze, expect Palmer to be the difference maker here. I know Eze from his time at my club. He is a quiet, humble character and will feel uneasy about having his head turned by what looks like a pending move to Tottenham. As a result, he may not even play.
That clears the floor for Palmer to knit everything together for a Chelsea side that looks electric going forward. Pedro Neto is in great form, Enzo Fernandez is shining, a fit again Reece James in a more advanced role looks back to his best, and Joao Pedro has hit the ground running.
With all those forward options, you need a world-class player to spot the killer pass and be able to deliver it. That player is Cole Palmer, and although he regularly hits the headlines for his goal scoring, it is his ability to assist that has caught my eye.
He is +120 to score here, but +290 to provide an assist, and with that array of talent around him, that offers excellent value. Although I wouldn’t put anyone off betting him to score in a game where I see goals, it is the bigger price that I will make my official selection and add to his tally of 19 across his two Premier League campaigns with the Londoners.
EPL Best Bet: Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace – Cole Palmer to assist at +290.
