EPL Best Bets and Predictions August 21-23
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Arsenal vs Coventry
Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET
This is always one of my favorite betting weekends of the year. We have spent weeks debating transfers, managers, World Cup fatigue, and preseason results, but now we finally get meaningful games.
The 2026/27 Premier League season kicks off Friday, with Arsenal, the reigning Premier League champions, welcoming Coventry City, the newly promoted Championship winners, to the Emirates.
There is a chasm between the Premier League and the Championship, even more so when you are talking about the very elite who will be in the top four come the end of the season. It is certainly massively different to 2001 – the last time Coventry were in the top flight of English soccer.
One thing that hasn’t changed is my approach to Arsenal games, especially when they are on home soil. Odds of -600 for them to win are understandable, although prohibitive, but we can get them onside at -136 by taking them to win and keep a clean sheet.
It was a regular winning selection for me last campaign and cashed in five of their last seven home league games. No surprise for champions who built their title win on a defense that only conceded 27 goals in 38 fixtures.
Visiting boss Frank Lampard will know Premier League defenses will not give his side the same kind of space or time they were afforded in plundering 97 goals last season. He also has to cope without 17-goal top scorer Haji Wright who could miss the first three months of the campaign with a quad injury.
That removes a huge part of the Sky Blues’ attacking threat, and I would expect a more cautious approach from a manager who will be aware that going toe-to-toe with the best side in England could end in disaster. The Gunners have already shown their defensive process is ready after shutting out Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield last weekend.
The Gunners will be missing William Saliba and Jurrien Timber but have enough strength in depth to handle those absentees, especially against a newly promoted side. Expect Arsenal to dominate possession, force Coventry deep before picking them off. The question is whether the visitors can celebrate their Premier League return with a goal and my answer to that is a resounding “no”.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs Coventry – Arsenal win to nil at -136
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
In my futures article, I mentioned Crystal Palace were one of my outsiders to be battling relegation this season, and here I am doubling down by taking Everton to beat them on the opening weekend. To see the home side priced at plus money is something of a surprise, but it is a value play I am more than happy to take.
Everton finished 13th last season with 49 points while the Eagles were two places and four points worse off. The gap then wasn’t enormous but still showed the Toffees to be the better side across the campaign, and they look the more stable of the two going into the new one.
The experienced and often underrated David Moyes was linked with the Scotland job but instead starts another new season still in charge of the hosts having made over $100 million worth of new signings. For Palace, it is a different story.
Oliver Glasner will go down as one of, if not the, greatest managers in the club’s history after winning the FA Cup, Community Shield and then the Europa Conference League. Following in those very large footsteps is Pierre Sage who himself worked wonders at Lens in France and was awarded the manager of the year there last term.
Given time, that could be a superb appointment, but for now, he must get to grips with the Premier League, which is never easy. He will have to do that without one of Palace’s best defenders after Maxence Lacroix was sold to Chelsea, and there are rumors surfacing that the influential Ismaila Sarr is the subject of an approach from Galatasaray.
Everton have a phenomenal record against the Londoners, and I am taking that to continue here. They have lost just one of the last 23 Premier League head-to-heads, winning eight of the last 10 competitive meetings they have hosted, including a 2-1 win last season.
This looks a great spot for the home side who can use their continuity to their advantage while Palace start their journey in learning how their new manager wants them to operate.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs Crystal Palace – Everton to win at +115
Fulham vs Chelsea
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
My final bet on the opening weekend comes in the final match which takes place on Monday. It is also another bet where my season-long view influences my match day 1 picks.
Under Xabi Alonso, I expect Chelsea to dramatically improve on their efforts of last season. This is a manager that broke the stranglehold in Germany of the mighty Bayern Munich, after guiding Bayer Leverkusen to the 2023/24 league and cup double.
A 10th-place finish for Blues was a huge disappointment, but they were fifth when Enzo Maresca parted ways with the club in January. The ability is clearly there, but Liam Rosenior was not up to the task and left after three months. This represents a much better hire.
The new boss has been backed with more quality signings, including the British-record purchase of Morgan Rogers and the aforementioned Lacroix to tighten up that shaky defense. Premier League veterans Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson have been brought in to add some much-needed experience and leadership.
Yet a player who has been with the club for a while could be the difference maker. I am expecting big things from Cole Palmer after missing out on the England World Cup squad and therefore having the summer off to recharge his batteries.
Not only am I sweet on Chelsea, but I also have a negative feeling for Fulham. Marco Silva has left after five years with the club, while Harry Wilson, who registered a club-high 10 goals and nine assists, and their talisman striker Raul Jimenez have both also exited.
Replacements remarkably have all come from Real Madrid, which, although it looks exciting on paper, also represents a huge gamble. The inexperienced Alvaro Arbeloa takes over from Silva, with Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios tasked with adapting to England quickly to score/create the goals.
There is always danger in betting a derby, especially on opening weekend, but Chelsea has won 11 of the last 15 meetings and will expect to further improve that record on Monday. The Blues have enough attacking quality to win this game, and Alonso’s team have looked more fluent as pre-season went on.
They beat AC Milan 3-0 and Real Sociedad 3-1 as they remained unbeaten in their last three warm-up games ahead of the new campaign. If Chelsea really are the top four challenger I believe they can be, this is exactly the kind of game they need to win.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Chelsea – Chelsea to win at -105
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