One final weekend of club football remains before the international break, and we have some great fixtures lined up across the continent. Three catch my eye, starting in Serie A, where the league’s highest-scoring side host its leakiest defense in Rome. Meanwhile, the most exciting story in Italy heads to San Siro to take on the champions.
In Germany, the Bundesliga’s top scorer has just been recalled by Jürgen Klopp to the German national side after a 14-month absence. There’s plenty to play for before two weeks of Nations League games, and plenty of value to go with it.
All stats are from Sofascore.
Roma vs Sassuolo | Serie A | Matchday 11
Saturday, November 7 | 2:45PM ET | Stadio Olimpico | Rome, Italy | Watch: Paramount+
Ten games into the season, the footballing gods have handed us a fixture destined for goals. Roma, Serie A’s top scorers with 28, welcome Sassuolo, who have conceded a league-worst 26, to the Stadio Olimpico.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s aggressive man-to-man press and vertical style have turned Roma into one of the most exciting attacking sides in Italy. The players have fully bought into his footballing philosophy, and the results show it—unbeaten in Serie A at 7-3-0 with the league’s best goal difference at +18, even though they find themselves third behind Lazio and Inter.
Donyell Malen spearheads the attack. The Dutch forward has 8 Serie A goals and leads Roma in shots on target this season. He has thrived in Gasperini’s system, with 26 goals and 5 assists in 31 appearances in all competitions since arriving in January.
The defense tells a different story. Roma have conceded only 10 Serie A goals all season, but 7 of them have come in their last three league matches. Midweek they let a 2-0 lead slip in the UEFA Champions League against Manchester United, losing 3-2. That’s 10 goals conceded in four games across all competitions, with 64 shots, 14 big chances and 9.52 xG allowed. The slide lines up with injuries to Manu Koné and Lorenzo Pellegrini, who have both been out since mid-October. Without them, Roma have lost legs, power and experience in the middle of the park.
If Roma’s defense is a concern, Sassuolo’s is a crisis. Before the season, I flagged the switch from Fabio Grosso’s defensively disciplined setup to Alberto Aquilani’s high-risk build-up play as a big ask of this squad. Two months in, it looks beyond them.
Sassuolo have lost four of their last five, conceding 17 goals in that run, including a 6-2 thrashing by Lazio in front of their fans. They sit 17th, a point above the relegation zone, and are still looking for their first road win.
Aquilani himself has criticized his side’s lack of compactness and individual errors at the back. He has tinkered, switching from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 in search of the right balance in central midfield. A mainstay there is Nemanja Matić, a player steeped in experience with two Premier League titles and a League Cup during his time at Chelsea. But at 38, he no longer has the legs to cover the ground the modern-day holding role demands. Against a Roma side that plays vertically and at high intensity, his lack of mobility could be a big problem.
With the November international break right after this round, Aquilani’s future has to be in question. Clubs often use the two-week break as the window to make a change, giving a new manager time on the training ground before league action resumes. Another heavy defeat in Rome could make that decision for Sassuolo’s board.
For all their problems at the back, Sassuolo can still hurt you. Their 16 goals are the joint-ninth most in Serie A, and no one player carries the load. Vasilije Adžić leads the team with just 3. That makes them hard to plan for, especially for a Roma defense that has managed one clean sheet in its last five games.
Roma should extend their unbeaten Serie A run to 11 matches and win this one, but at -360, there’s no value backing them on the Moneyline. The spread has them at -1.5 goals for -135, and while I think Roma can win by two comfortably, there’s better value out there on how this game plays out.
With Koné and Pellegrini out, Gasperini’s midfield options are thin, and this will be Roma’s fifth game in 11 days. The energy a man-to-man press depends on will be in short supply, and the numbers show it. In their last five games, Roma have scored 10 first-half goals and conceded just 2. After the break, they’ve conceded 8. Both midfields are short of legs, both defenses are leaking and both managers are fully committed to their playing styles. Roma will start fast and have the firepower to pull away. When the game inevitably opens up in the second half, Sassuolo will find a way to get on the scoresheet.
The footballing gods have conspired to give us goals at the Stadio Olimpico. Two leaky defenses with tired legs in midfield should deliver them.
Pick: Same Game Parlay Both Teams To Score Yes (-155) and Over 3.5 Goals (-110) = +134
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | Matchday 9
Saturday, November 07 | 12:30PM ET | MHPArena | Stuttgart, Germany | Watch: USA Network
Niclas Füllkrug finished as the Bundesliga’s joint-top scorer with 16 goals during his last full season with Werder Bremen. Three years and three clubs later, he’s back for his third stint at the Weserstadion, and he’s picked up where he left off, leading the Bundesliga scoring charts with 9 goals in the opening eight games.
After two difficult seasons split between West Ham United and AC Milan, where he scored just 5 goals in 49 appearances, Füllkrug is enjoying an Indian summer. His form has earned him a Germany recall. Jürgen Klopp named him in his squad for the November Nations League games against Serbia and the Netherlands, his first call-up since September 2025 after he missed out on the World Cup. With Euro 2028 less than two years away, this is likely Füllkrug’s last realistic chance to play at a major tournament for Germany. He’ll be 35 by then. A striker playing for his international future is the last thing a struggling Stuttgart defense needs.
Not every club handles the jump as well as Como. Stuttgart are suffering from a problem that catches out plenty of clubs that overachieve their way into Europe. Playing every three or four days is a big adjustment, and their form this season shows it. They lost 2-0 to Galatasaray in Istanbul midweek, and Saturday will be their fifth game in 16 days.
In the Bundesliga, Sebastian Hoeneß’s side have won three and lost five, scoring 14 and conceding 15, and they’ve kept just four clean sheets in 16 games across all competitions. The numbers only get worse for Stuttgart. They’ve allowed 19.27 xG and 33 big chances in eight Bundesliga games, and poor finishing from their opponents has kept the goals-against column at 15.
Füllkrug won’t be so forgiving. His 9 Bundesliga goals have come from 6.01 xG and 28 shots, roughly one goal for every three attempts. He’s scoring in every way a striker can: 4 with his right foot, 3 with his left and 2 with his head. He’s also been deadly from the spot, scoring all 3 of his penalties, and he’ll remain Werder’s designated taker.
Against a defense giving up four big chances a game, Füllkrug is great value at +175 to reach double figures in the Bundesliga.
Pick: Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer +175
Inter Milan vs Como | Serie A | Matchday 11
Sunday, November 8 | 12PM ET | San Siro | Milan, Italy | Watch: Paramount+
There’s something special happening in Como. Cesc Fàbregas’ side beat Lens 9-1 in the UEFA Champions League this week, becoming only the second team in the competition’s history to score nine in a single match. To do it away from home, in their first season among Europe’s elite, is quite the achievement.
Most clubs find the jump to European football a struggle, with the extra fixtures stretching their squads. Como look unaffected. They sit fourth in Serie A, two points behind Inter Milan, with only one defeat in 10 league games. Their 8 goals conceded are the joint-fewest in the league, which shows they’re performing at both ends of the pitch.
Inter have been the dominant force in Italian football in recent years. They’re the reigning champions, with three Serie A titles in six seasons and two Champions League finals along the way. Back in Week 2, I called them the team to beat, and nothing about their results has changed my mind. But Como represent the new model challenging that establishment: ambitious ownership, smart recruitment and one of Europe’s brightest young coaches. They arrive at San Siro with Inter missing their captain and talisman.
Lautaro Martínez is ruled out with a hamstring injury, and without him, Inter lose their most reliable finisher and the focal point of their attack. Francesco Pio Esposito is one of Italian football’s most exciting young center-forwards, and Marcus Thuram is at his best when serving as Martínez’s strike partner, not his replacement. Neither can match Martínez, who has 191 goals and 40 assists for Inter.
Inter’s only league defeat came last time out, a 3-1 loss to AC Milan in the Derby della Madonnina. Losing to their fiercest rivals stings more than any other result, and this one was hard to take because the scoreline flattered Milan. Cristian Chivu’s side outshot them 19-7 and created 1.68 xG to Milan’s 0.62, with four big chances to two.
Inter responded with a 3-0 win away to Feyenoord in the Champions League midweek, but that scoreline flattered them too. They managed just 1.19 xG from 11 shots. Esposito’s goal accounted for 0.78 of it, and the other two goals came from chances worth a combined 0.05 xG. Beyond that one clear opening, the quality of the chances Inter created was very low.
That’s where Como come in. The league’s joint-best defense is getting tighter. Over their first five matches, Como allowed 1.53 xG per game. Over their last five, that has dropped to 0.97, with opponents held under 0.35 xG twice. Fàbregas possesses elite tactical intelligence, and he’ll have a plan to restrict Inter’s attack to the same low-quality chances it created against Feyenoord.
There’s something special happening in Como, and San Siro is the next stage to prove it. With Martínez missing and a defense improving by the week, the establishment is there to be challenged. Back Como to leave Milan with something.
Pick: Como +0.5 on the Spread -105
