EPL Best Bets and Predictions August 23-24:
Here are the EPL best bets for this weekend’s matches:
Burnley vs. Sunderland
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My best bet for match day 2 comes in the clash between two of the newly promoted sides. Burnley finished second in the Championship last season. Sunderland came up via the playoffs after finishing the regular season in fourth. Both teams couldn’t have had more contrasting fortunes on their return to the Premier League last weekend.
Sunderland shocked everybody with a superb performance against West Ham. With the speed it appears to have taken their high number of new signings to gel, it will be very difficult to repeat that on the road at Burnley. They certainly rode on the excellent atmosphere created by their home support to clinch that 3-0 win over the Hammers.
However, after something of a free hit for Burnley away at Spurs, the pressure is now on them to do what both the other promoted sides did and win their opening home game of the new campaign. Even as big underdogs, they would have been disappointed with their performance last weekend. Their fans will expect a big improvement, especially against a side they finished 24 points ahead of last term.
As you probably know, I am not someone who goes back to use a lot of historical trends in my betting, but my first reaction when I saw this was it would be an Under 2.5 goals match. Then I went and looked back at the data and saw last season ended in a 0-0 tie here, with Burnley’s goalkeeper James Trafford saving two penalty kicks. That was the eighth time in the last 11 meetings where Under 2.5 goals has cashed with five of those games ending in a 0-0 tie.
The reason I like these stats that go back nearly 10 years is that not much has changed over that period of time. When they have played each other, they have been in the Premier League and fighting it out at the bottom or in the Championship in a promotion or title race battle.
With Sunderland recording that massive win at home, they would be delighted to take a point here at Turf Moor. Not only keep their unbeaten start rolling on, but they would be thrilled to have four points on the board. That result would keep three points between them and Burnley.
Now looking at the price of Under 2.5 goals (-167), the market is all over it, so I am dropping down to under 2.0 Asian total, which is +100. I expect no more than one goal to be scored here, which would cash the ticket. However, we get the safety net of a full stake refund should there be exactly two goals scored.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs. Sunderland – Under 2.0 Asian total at +100.
Arsenal vs. Leeds
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
There was big Arsenal news breaking this week, even though they weren’t in action. As it looks like they are about to sign the brilliant Eberechi Eze, with the added joy for their supporters being their club highjacked his transfer to arch-rivals Tottenham at the last moment.
On the pitch, the Gunners were very poor last weekend, snatching a 1-0 victory at Manchester United in a game they didn’t deserve to win. But win they did despite having a bad day at the office – is that a sign of a good side, one that can win the title? Maybe. We will soon find out.
What is for sure is the difference between this current version of Arsenal and those we have seen in previous years. They played badly at a tough venue in Old Trafford against a side who had the support behind them, after bringing in several big-money signings. Mikel Arteta would have loved how his men dug in and came out with the win and a clean sheet.
After conceding the fewest goals in the last two Premier League campaigns, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a brilliant defensive performance with the best goalkeeper in the division pulling off a couple of great saves when called upon. Although unlikely to be tested quite as much, I also think that run will continue here for the visit of newly promoted Leeds.
For last season’s champions of the second tier, it is all about what they do at home. It certainly won’t come down to how well they do against teams like Arsenal. The gulf between the top four in England and those fighting relegation is massive and only getting wider. I would go so far as to say newly promoted sides effectively write these games off and keep something back for those much more winnable fixtures.
I think Arsenal will win this quite comfortably, as you would expect from a side priced at -385. But we can get them onside at +100 simply by adding them to keep another clean sheet, and that is incredible value.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs Leeds – Arsenal win-to-nil at +100.
Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
I was at Stamford Bridge last weekend to see Palace’s first game of the new season in what looked like a tough opener at Chelsea. They performed really well, but for an unusual disallowed free-kick goal would have taken all three points.
As mentioned above, it is likely that the game against the Blues was star player Eberechi Eze’s final appearance for the club. That will be a big blow to Eagles fans, but what Palace do very well is when they sell someone, they tend to have a replacement lined up, or already at the club. In summary, we shouldn’t panic and certainly not put them in the auto-fade basket.
What has really impressed me over the last 12 months, and I have mentioned it regularly, is their defense, one of the most underrated units in the Premier League. Oliver Glasner has them well drilled and set up to perfection.
They do look better when on the road, as was the case last week, where they can soak up pressure and then explode on the counterattack. They are very unlikely to get that against this Forest side that likes to play that way too. A stand-off? Quite possibly.
Chris Wood is the visitors’ main goal threat with 20 goals last season and two on the board already after Match Day 1. But his physical style is just the type that these Palace defenders love to play against—fairly static and a battle of strength.
The eye-catching thing for me is that the head-to-head stats since Forest’s return to the Premier League are pretty incredible. All six meetings have cashed for Under 2.5 goals, with four of those ending in a tie. The two games prior to that, which were both in the Championship, also ended all square.
So traditionally, a very tight fixture, hardly anything between the two sides, and a clash which is often very low scoring. Given the extra spice this season and the way Palace set themselves up to make it so hard to play against, that looks like a trend that is likely to continue.
Forest were playing a very poor Brentford outfit last weekend, so we shouldn’t read too much into them scoring three goals. I still maintain they won’t finish as high as they did last term. We will get a better read on them after seeing how they perform this weekend.
Once again, I am eyeing the Under, even more so after digging into those stats. The price (-139) is just not quite good enough for me to get involved at, so once again, I am dropping down to the 2.0 Asian total line, which makes this a big plus money play.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest – Under 2 Asian total at +130.
