EPL Best Bets and Predictions August 30-31:
Just three weeks into the new Premier League season, and we are set for a break due to the upcoming international soccer. To sign off in style, I will be giving you my four EPL best bets of the slate, starting with my strongest selection, which comes in the game between newly promoted Sunderland and Brentford.
Sunderland vs. Brentford
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Quite often at this early stage of the season, odds move massively as teams record wildly different results in their second fixture from their opening game of the campaign. This is a case in point with Sunderland going from being a strong favorite to becoming the underdog in this clash.
My feeling in this one, however, is that both managers know they are going to have a season of struggle and would be absolutely delighted to take a tie and add another point to their total. Both would then go into the break with four points on the board, having recorded a result of each flavor to start the new campaign.
Sunderland made people sit up and take notice after their opening day 3-0 win over West Ham, but it is now more likely that the Hammers are so poor that form is not as strong as it first appeared. They’ve since gone to fellow newly promoted side Burnley and been soundly beaten 2-0, highlighting how crucial home games are for those sides who will be fighting relegation.
Expect a real contrast in home and away form from the strugglers, with both these sides fitting those criteria. When Brentford travelled to Nottingham Forest on the opening weekend, Under 2.5 goals was my best bet and I lost my money, but I’ve not been put off. I’m going back in on the exact same bet here at -118.
After that defeat, the Bees showed how well they can defend in keeping a fancied Aston Villa side out to claim a deserved 1-0 win. On Tuesday, they went to Bournemouth in the League Cup and repeated the trick—something that isn’t easy to do against the Cherries.
You can see head coach Keith Andrews has worked on making his side hard to break down, pulling on his former post at the club as a set piece coach. As a player, he was a defensive midfielder, and that influence is shining through in how he sets his team up.
As a result, I can see nothing other than a very low-scoring game between two sides that will happily shake hands on sharing the points.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Brentford – Under 2.5 goals at -118.
Wolves vs. Everton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
This could be another example of a team having contrasting home and away form. Everton were awful on the opening weekend at Leeds, but they were brilliant in last weekend’s 2-0 defeat of Brighton at their brand-new stadium, which was rocking!
After what was a slow beginning to the transfer window over the last couple of weeks, the Toffees have done some incredible business. Signing Jack Grealish on loan from Manchester City was a masterstroke, which we saw immediately as he provided two assists on his full debut on Sunday. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall could turn out to be one of the signings of the season, and this week, they added 19-year-old wonderkid Tyler Dibling to their squad for around $40 million.
I was keen on Everton before the season started, and with those recent additions, I am even stronger. In what is a perfect storm, here they visit a Wolves side who I am very keen to fade at any opportunity.
Vítor Pereira’s side have blanked in their opening two Premier League fixtures while conceding five goals. I am not reading too much into the cup win over an awful West Ham side in midweek. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the manager repeat history and walk away knowing his side is in big trouble.
In an earlier column, I mentioned Wolves’ horrific record in August. It is now just one win in 22 league matches during that month. With this game taking place on the 30th, this is my last chance to remind you of it and take it to continue!
This match ended in a tie last season, but the home side has lost their best players since then and could be set to lose another, with Jørgen Strand Larsen strongly linked with a move to Newcastle. Everton won the reverse fixture 4-0. I can see them coming out on top again.
The market seems to still underrate the visitors against a team on a downward spiral. I really do expect them to take at least a point back to Merseyside. Taking tie-no-bet gives us the safety net of a full refund should the game end all square and we are still getting plus money.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Everton – Everton tie-no-bet at +103.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
There is a blockbuster clash at Anfield this Sunday as last season’s top two go head-to-head and put their 100% records in the current campaign on the line. At the time of writing, Liverpool are +112 favorites with Arsenal at +245. I don’t believe the price discrepancy between the two should be that vast from what we have seen at the start of the season, including the Community Shield meeting between the two.
It has become clear Liverpool has a massive problem in conceding goals, with Arne Slot admitting as much. The Gunners will travel here and look to exploit that situation from the first whistle.
Mikel Arteta will know his side does not have a great record at Anfield, not winning there in the league since 2012, which is a run of 12 visits. At least it stopped the rot of six straight defeats by drawing the last three clashes on Merseyside.
The Gunners are not alone in that, as Liverpool is pretty much invincible on home soil, only tasting defeat once in each of the last three seasons.
Key player Bukayo Saka has been ruled out, which may mean a start for new signing Eberechi Eze—although I hope he is saved for an easier assignment at home to help build his confidence. The former QPR and Crystal Palace player can go missing in the big games, as we have seen recently for England.
However, having been at the Emirates to watch Arsenal in the flesh last weekend, I left feeling so impressed by them. As a result, I can’t see them failing to score here. With Liverpool’s firepower too, we should see goals, as was the case last season with both games ending 2-2—a scoreline we have seen in three of the last five league meetings and wouldn’t put anyone off having some pizza money on that outcome again at +950.
But for my selection, I am keeping it simple and betting the tie at +240. The week before an international break, only the third game of a new season, avoid injuries, take a point each, and move on. Ideally, we would like to see this fixture around Christmas, but we can use the scheduling to our advantage and cash in on the tie.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Arsenal – Match Result – Tie at +240.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 2:00 p.m. ET
For my bonus final selection of match day three, I am looking at the last fixture ahead of the break, a game between two sides that met four times last season. Twice in the league and in both cup competitions, with Palace really doing a job on Villa, winning three times and claiming a tie in this corresponding match.
Oliver Glasner just seems to know how to combat an Unai Emery side who loves to set traps for opponents and then play around them. However, with no Eberechi Eze after his big-money move to Arsenal, taking all three points might prove a step too far on Sunday.
The Eagles’ first road game of the season was a comparable one and one I attended. They coped with that potent Chelsea attack superbly, defending resolutely with their three big central defenders soaking up all the home side could throw at them.
I am sure they will use the same template here against a Villa side that is struggling for goals, having drawn a blank in their opening two fixtures. There are usually a couple of sides we need to have a re-base on, and the Villains could be one, moving them from possibly a top-six side to one that drops into the middle of the table.
Every meeting last season went Over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in each clash too. However, Palace, who have a very small squad, play in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night in Norway. That is new to them and something they must come to terms with, which is easier said than done, given clubs like Spurs, Manchester United and Villa themselves struggled with maintaining high performance immediately after European fixtures.
So, given Villa’s early-season struggles, Palace’s extra exertions, and the loss of their star player, this looks like all the ingredients for an Under 2.5 goals bet, which we can back at a nice price of -118.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 goals at -118.
