EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 13-14:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
It has been another week of European soccer action with nine (45%) Premier League clubs involved in either the Champions League, Europa League or Conference League. That always makes these game weeks something of a minefield, but three confident plays are coming up, the first of which involves two of those nine aforementioned sides.
Manchester City travelled to and got a brilliant result at one of the most storied stadiums as they faced 15-time Champions League winners Real Madrid on Wednesday at the Bernabéu. For Crystal Palace, it was a short trip to Ireland and Thursday’s clash with Shelbourne, who are participating in the group/league phase of a major European tournament for the first time.
I have been fading Palace for the last few weeks, having seen with my own eyes several times that many of their players are running on empty. They keep digging ever deeper and somehow pulling wins out of the bag.
Last week, Fulham had them on the rack with the game at 1-1 and should have taken the lead, only for Marc Guehi to score with a late header to take all three points and send his club to fourth in the table. As tough as that was, this will be even tougher.
Manchester City holds appeal at odds of around -120, but I am sticking with a tried and trusted selection instead. That is for Erling Haaland to score at odds of -134.
The Norwegian had suffered something of a lean spell by his exceptionally high standards, scoring just one goal in his last five games before scoring what turned out to be the winner against Madrid. That was his 50th start in the Champions League and his 51st goal, the most goals scored by a player in his first 50 starts in the competition.
He keeps rewriting the record books. So far this season, he has scored 34 goals in 25 starts across all competitions for club and country, scoring in 20 separate matches. That’s a strike rate of 80% and would be implied odds of -400. Having done the math on his time in England, it works out that any better odds than -150 you are getting value – and we certainly are here.
Yes, Palace are fourth in the table and have been incredible for at least 12 months now, but with such a small squad, fatigue must take hold. I think they will find it very tough against this confident City side. But regardless of the result, this fixture usually throws up goals, and Haaland has scored in all four appearances he has made against the Eagles, including a hat trick in 2022.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City – Erling Haaland to score at -134.
Brentford vs Leeds United
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Brentford was terrible last weekend against Tottenham. That’s the third time I have seen them on the road this season, and they were equally as bad in those games at Arsenal and Crystal Palace.
But when they are on home soil, they are like a different team! As has been the trademark for Brentford sides since promotion to the Premier League in 2021, they come out of the blocks early.
On the road, the Bees have three points from eight games, with only rock-bottom Wolves picking up fewer. At home, they have 16 points from seven games, with only the top three, Arsenal, Man City, and Aston Villa being able to top that number.
Burnley, Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester United and Villa have already been beaten comfortably at the Community Stadium. Expect Leeds, who are another team that is strong at home but weak on the road, to go the same way.
Not only do Leeds get beaten on their travels, but they ship far too many goals. They have conceded 18 times in their first seven away games, with the average match total across those fixtures being 3.43.
I was expecting a much higher goal line here, so to be able to play Over 2.5 is something of a shock, albeit a very pleasant one. I don’t understand that with respective home and away averages equating to 3.36 goals per game.
Keith Andrews’ men have seen five of their seven home league games cash for Over 2.5 goals, and it is the same number for the visitors on the road.
Only Erling Haaland has scored more Premier League goals this season than Brentford’s Igor Thiago, who has 11. While Danie Farke has now opted for a system with two strikers, which has seen them score three times against both Chelsea and Liverpool in the two games since making the switch.
This is a huge match at the bottom of the table but promises to be a really entertaining one. Expect both sides to come out swinging and for there to be loads of goals.
I had priced Over 2.5 goals at around -140, so the -113 on offer here is massive value.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Leeds United – Over 2.5 goals at -113.
Burnley vs. Fulham
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
I can’t be having Fulham here at -107. Having watched them against Crystal Palace last week, my negative stance on them has been endorsed.
They started quite well, with Emile Smith-Rowe catching the eye, and had opportunities to take the lead with the game in the balance at 1-1. However, in the last 20 minutes, they looked out on their feet, and I put much of that down to the crazy game with Manchester City in which they lost by the odd goal in nine.
This is far from an easy trip to Burnley, despite the hosts being on a run of six straight defeats and sitting in the relegation zone, five points from safety. Home manager Scott Parker is a Fulham legend, and he will be pumped up to get a positive result here.
This will be a match that has been earmarked by the hosts as a must-win fixture if they hold any hope of staying in the Premier League. The crowd will surely be right behind them. From seven games at Turf Moor this season, they have lost four – but that was against Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Liverpool.
That is three of the current top five and the defending champions who had a 100% record at the time they played. The fans will appreciate that those games were unlikely to yield a positive result, but this is one they know they have a chance to win, as was the case in home victories over Leeds and Sunderland.
I feel they can grab a priceless three points here, and the +300 on the Moneyline is so tempting, I wouldn’t put anyone off. However, I am taking the safer play and keeping the tie on side by playing +0.5 Asian Handicap at -117.
This looks like a good time to play a Fulham side who have lost their last two league games and five of their seven road trips.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley vs Fulham – Burnley +0.50 Asian Handicap at -117.
