EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 14-15:
Let’s take a look at the weekend’s EPL best bets:
Arsenal vs. Everton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
For my best bet this week I am backing Arsenal to beat Everton. Don’t worry, I haven’t completely changed my style and started throwing out tips at -450. I will need to be a little creative.
Despite the Gunners having a midweek matchup with Monaco in the Champions League and their opponents not having had a game for two weeks by the time this one kicks off, I still think the home side will be too strong. Mikel Arteta’s men will make up plenty of parlays over the weekend, and at heavy minus money, the expectation is they will win pretty comfortably. The traders agree with the handicap line set at -1.75, meaning a three-goal margin is needed to cash your ticket in full.
I have a better way around this conundrum and am taking Arsenal to win to nil. The same bet as Arsenal win and both teams to score no, or Everton under 0.5 goals. The price is a much better looking -120.
The Gunners won that game in midweek 3-0 with another impressive performance. Led by their star boy once again, as Bukayo Saka scored two and assisted the other.
Arsenal has a stunning home record this season. They have won nine of their 11 games played on home soil across all competitions, drawing the other two. On the road, they are a little vulnerable, but for them, the Emirates is a fortress.
They have gone back to basics in their last three home games, beating Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Monaco without conceding a goal.
In contrast, visitors Everton have struggled on the road. One win in seven and that coming at newly promoted Ipswich, who are yet to win a home game. They have lost four of those road trips and failed to score in any of the last three fixtures against Manchester United, West Ham and Southampton.
Everton’s struggles in front of goal are well documented, and before last week’s game with Liverpool was postponed due to bad weather, they had failed to score in four of their previous five fixtures across all venues. Their visits to London have been fruitless too, not only drawing 0-0 at West Ham, as mentioned, but also losing 4-0 at Tottenham.
Arsenal have coped with the loss of Gabriel superbly and remain rock solid even in his absence, with William Saliba really stepping up. Expect the home side to have plenty of the ball here and limit the visitors to feeding off scraps, and they don’t have the players to make something out of nothing.
The Gunners only drew at Fulham last weekend, not the worst result but they know they will need to follow that up with a win here. The margin doesn’t matter right now. They just need to put in a solid performance and take the three points. That’s what makes this win to nil the better option than playing the handicap.
EPL Pick: Arsenal vs Everton – Arsenal to win to nil at -120.
Chelsea vs. Brentford
Sunday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Chelsea is a sensation at the moment. They are a joy to watch. They have rocketed up to second in the EPL table, four points behind Liverpool, and four points clear of Manchester City in fourth.
Every time I see them, I am impressed and have not been disappointed since I started betting them a few weeks ago. Their fans must be in dreamland watching them play, and I really like them to win a trophy this season. I want to get them onside again this week, but it is no surprise to see them priced at -345 to beat Brentford.
Don’t be fooled by what looks like a nightmare fixture in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday—an away trip to Kazakhstan some eight hours by plane from London, with the game kicking off in temperatures of about 10 degrees Fahrenheit. That side will be a B-team, with all the players destined to take to the field at Stamford Bridge on Sunday staying at home.
One of those players is someone who I think is the best player in the Premier League right now. Cole Palmer. Sold to the Blues by Manchester City last year, Pep Guardiola must be wondering why on Earth he let him go—what he would do to have him available now.
At 22-years-old, Palmer is playing with incredible confidence. The Panenka penalty he scored against Tottenham last weekend was further proof of that. He has a swagger about him that tells us he knows how good he is.
He will go on to win an award this season. His goals last weekend took him to 11 in the Premier League, just two behind Salah and Haaland. While he has six assists, only Salah and Saka have more. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him voted player of the season either, depending which team goes on to win the title.
All of which brings me on to the bet here which is for Cole Palmer to score at -104. A reminder that he is top scorer for a side that are -345 to win, the handicap expects at least a two-goal margin, and we get their penalty taker at close to double money.
Brentford have picked up one point from seven road trips, they have conceded at least twice in six of those fixtures, too. While Chelsea have won their last five and scored 16 goals at an average of 3.20 per game. With those numbers, Palmer to score at -104 is a great price.
EPL Pick: Chelsea vs Brentford – Cole Palmer to score at -104.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
For my final EPL play of the week, I am taking Nottingham Forest tie no bet at -118. This is as much a fade of opponents Aston Villa as it is a show of support for the home side.
Villa secured a massive result in midweek, going to RB Leipzig in Germany and coming back with a 3-2 Champions League win after a rollercoaster of a game. That win puts Unai Emery’s men in fifth place, and they really have a great chance of finishing in the all-important top eight.
What we have seen after their previous European nights is a steady decline in results on their return to Premier League action. The sequence is a win, two draws and two defeats.
This represents a really tough assignment going to a Nottingham Forest side who have their tails back up. Nuno EspÃrito Santo saw his side travel to Manchester United last weekend and come away with a 3-2 win, a result that leaves them fifth in the table, one place ahead of their opponents here.
The atmosphere at the City Ground will be electric, even more so as this is an evening game in the UK, picked for TV coverage, and the home support will sense that Villa is gettable after their midweek exertions. Forest had a clear week to rest, recover and prepare.
Forest suffered a dip after the international break as there were a couple of injuries to key players and top goalscorer Chris Wood had to travel to New Zealand and back. With a full-strength team, they are a force to be reckoned with and a match for anybody.
Only two teams boast a better defensive record across the season so far. While at home, they have only conceded six goals. Only leaders Liverpool have allowed fewer.
This bet allows us the safety net of a tie, which I think is a runner. If that is the outcome we get a full refund of our stake. That still gives us a good price on Forest picking up all three points and taking advantage of those tired Villa legs.
EPL Pick: Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest Tie No Bet at -118.
