EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 20-21:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Aston Villa look to have a fantastic chance of winning this against a Manchester United side that are missing some key players due to their participation in the African Cup of Nations, Bryan Mbeumo in particular. Odds of +110 are very tempting, but I feel maybe a fraction low considering their overachievement this season on their underlying data.
Instead, I am focusing on goals. On Monday night, Manchester United played out a 4-4 tie at home to Bournemouth in one of the craziest games of the season. Some of the Red Devils’ defending was woeful, and in the en,d they could and should have conceded at least two more goals.
However, from an attacking point of view, across their last three matches, Ruben Amorim has seen it begin to click. That game against the Cherries was the second in succession in which they scored four times, and across their last 15 fixtures, 12 have seen at least three goals, with four or more occurring eight times. Villa are on a stunning run of nine successive victories with seven of those seeing at least three goals scored.
I was expecting the goal line to be set at Over 3.5. The fact we can play over 3.0 Asian total at plus money shocked me, but it represents huge value.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Manchester United – Over 3.0 Asian total at +105.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
For the last couple of weeks, I have been waiting for the right time to invest in Liverpool, and I think that time is now. The Mo Salah situation, which has hung over the club like a storm cloud, has moved on, even if temporarily with his departure to represent Egypt at AFCON.
Arne Slot can now fully focus his attention to matters on the pitch. Looking to continue the good form of the last 10 days, which has seen wins at Inter in the Champions League and at home in the league against Brighton.
Tottenham is not a tough place to visit right now, with their home form one of the worst in the division. It is not just their results that have been poor; their performances have been awful for most of the campaign.
Liverpool won both league games against Spurs last season, scoring 11 goals in the process. The champions were priced up at -160 for this game last term, raced into a 5-1 lead with little more than an hour on the clock before running out 6-3 victors.
The hosts are a point worse off than they were at the same time in the previous campaign, so I can’t work out how Liverpool are priced at +102. Thomas Frank is under severe pressure but has limited options to change things, given his side is decimated by injuries to key players like Solanke, Maddison and Kulusevski.
For the visitors, Ekitike is back, firing in goals. Isak is slowly getting his fitness up to speed, and Wirtz is starting to show glimpses of the player we know he is. We may look back in a few weeks and think this price was the biggest gift of the season.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Liverpool – Liverpool to win at +102.
Wolves vs. Brentford
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I like Wolves here, so first let me address the elephant in the room. They are the worst team in the league, sitting rock bottom on two points after 16 games, and for many, an auto fade. However, on my ratings, Brentford are the third-worst team in the division.
At home, they are to be respected, but they collapse when playing away, as demonstrated by a record of seven defeats from eight road trips this term. Their performances and data show they are getting exactly what they deserve, but having seen them twice in the flesh, my eye test backs that up too.
Wolves came within seconds of claiming a sensational point at Arsenal last weekend. An unbelievable performance derailed by two own goals, but if Rob Edwards can get even 70% of that performance from his team here, that will be more than enough to beat this Brentford side.
In my opinion, on current form, purely watching performances, this isn’t far off a pick ’em contest. For me, the line is totally wrong, and we could hit many of the alternative lines, but for the official play, it is Wolves to win at a massive +280.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Brentford – Wolves to win at +280.
Brighton vs. Sunderland
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I have a couple of theories on this game. I wonder if Sunderland have gone full throttle from the first whistle in August, knowing they need to get points on the board before the start of AFCON. Régis Le Bris isn’t just missing fringe members of his squad; he is missing six players who have featured in over 50 Premier League games this season between them.
The Black Cats also used a lot of emotional and physical energy in beating local rivals Newcastle last weekend. My feeling is if Brighton are to win, it won’t be a narrow success. It will be a big win due to the wheels coming off for the visitors.
A home win is priced at -160 here, far too low to play, with the Asian Handicap set at -0.75. However, for the reasons already mentioned, I am taking Brighton on the -1.5-handicap, meaning they need to win by two clear goals but at a much more attractive +170.
Sunderland have only scored four goals on the road; Brighton are averaging two goals per game at home and have been beaten twice (by Aston Villa both times) in their last 16 in the Premier League at the AMEX. The Seagulls are due to give someone a big beating. Sunderland could be that team.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs Sunderland – Brighton -1.5 Asian Handicap at +170.
