EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 26-28:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle
Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET
As it’s the festive set of fixtures, a bumper edition for you this week and five picks in total! Boxing Day soccer is a much-look-forward-to institution in the UK. We have just one Premier League fixture on the schedule for the day after Christmas, but it is at least a cracker.
Manchester United performed well against Aston Villa last weekend but missed some big chances, and once again, defensive frailties cost them as they slipped to a narrow 2-1 defeat. Those frailties were never more apparent than in their last appearance at Old Trafford when they were involved in a crazy 4-4 tie with Bournemouth, a game in truth which should have featured even more goals.
Last Saturday, Newcastle could only tie 2-2 with Chelsea despite taking a two-goal lead into the half-time break. Now they must improve on a terrible road record, which has seen them pick up just two wins from 11 attempts, losing five of their last seven away games across all competitions.
But this one is all about goals for me, with nine of the last 10 Manchester United league games seeing both teams score, and only two of those have failed to see a minimum of three goals, with five going on to see at least four. Despite starting the season with three successive 0-0 scorelines on the road, Newcastle’s away games have seen 28 goals at an average of 2.55, with their last eight fixtures featuring three goals twice, four goals four times, and five goals once.
I think this will be an entertaining end-to-end thriller like that classic with Bournemouth, and so I am playing over 2.75 goals here at odds of -117. That means if there are three goals, we are guaranteed profit, but four or more will secure us a full win.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Newcastle – Over 2.75 Asian total at -117.
Liverpool vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Although in the closing stages they were rather nervously hanging on to a 2-1 scoreline at Tottenham last weekend, Liverpool was much the better side for most of the game. A red card for Xavi Simons after 33 minutes swung the contest in the champions’ favor, but they still had to take advantage and are showing signs of returning to their best with each passing week.
Arne Slot’s side are now unbeaten in six and have won their last three. Mo Salah’s departure to play for his country seems to have unified the team, Hugo Ekitike has rediscovered his goal-scoring form, but most importantly, in my opinion, the defensive unit looks solid once again.
Here they face a Wolves side that look so bad, and it is hard to see where they will get a first win of the season from. Brentford are shocking on the road, but swept them aside even with the hosts missing a penalty kick.
So, with Liverpool priced at -455 to win, adding them to do that “to nil” boosts the price to +102, and that is where the value is at. Wolves have lost seven of their eight road trips this season, scoring only twice, and with six of those defeats coming “to nil.“
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Wolves – Liverpool to win to nil at +102.
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Some bets are uncomfortable ones to place, even if you know they are the right ones, and this is certainly one of those. I am siding with Tottenham to win at +250, which is a price that is just too big.
This is more a fade of Crystal Palace, who I have been saying for weeks are fast running out of gas. A midweek trip to take on Arsenal in the League Cup could push them over the limit, and Spurs can be the beneficiaries.
Oliver Glasner desperately needs to bring in players to his squad in January, but for now, they look there for the taking. They were lucky against Burnley, lucky against Fulham, played well but were soundly beaten by Manchester City before terrible performances against KuPS and Leeds where the 4-1 thrashing had been coming for a while.
The Eagles have built their success on strong defensive foundations, but those are crumbling, having conceded nine goals in the last three games. The back three are looking fatigued: Daniel Muñoz is a massive miss at both ends of the field, livewire Ismaïla Sarr is on international duty, and striker Jean-Philippe Mateta is out on his feet.
A ridiculous fixture schedule has taken its toll on Palace, and Tottenham have picked up more points on the road than on home soil. Under pressure, Thomas Frank and his team may prefer playing away from their own stadium and can land the spoils at a big price.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham – Tottenham to win at +250.
West Ham vs. Fulham
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Two sides meet here that are hard to have too much faith in but come together in a game that looks full of goals. It’s no win in six for West Ham, and at home, they are yet to keep a league clean sheet, have conceded 20 goals at 2.5 per fixture, allowing at least two in seven of those eight matches.
Fulham will travel across London with some confidence, having recorded back-to-back league victories and could use the fact that the Hammers must win to their advantage. That should lead to opportunities at both ends with Over 2.5 goals the play at -129.
Marco Silva’s men have played 21 games across all competitions this season and have scored in 18 of them. On the road in the league, they are yet to keep a clean sheet, with those fixtures averaging a fraction over three goals per game.
This ended 3-2 here last season, and I can see something similar on Saturday.
EPL Best Bet: West Ham vs Fulham – Over 2.5 goals at -129.
Brentford vs Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My final selection this week is another goals angle, which is a consistent trend when you look back at the Christmas fixtures over the last couple of seasons. Over 2.5 goals here is -137, and I think that is a little short. My expectation is that this should be around -150.
Brentford are one of the best sides on home soil in the league and will take this to Bournemouth, who last time on the road were involved in that incredible 4-4 tie with Manchester United. No surprise for a side who have now seen 38 goals in eight league road trips this season, averaging 4.75 goals per game.
This game ended 3-2 last term and 2-2 the campaign before that. I fully expect that record of Over 2.5 goals to be extended here.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Bournemouth – Over 2.5 goals at -137.
