EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 6-7:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Everton vs. Nottingham Forest
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The action is coming thick and fast in the Premier League. Since my last column, there have been two rounds of fixtures. Not only did we have the usual 10 games across last weekend, but another full set played out over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
This is after the international break and sandwiched in between Champions League Round 5 and Round 6 this coming midweek. All of which means managers are using all their squads with some rotating heavily, some getting away with it and still winning (see Arsenal), some not so much (see Chelsea).
That adds a further layer for us bettors to unravel as we work out which fixtures to target and which to leave well alone. My best bet of the week comes in a matchup between two grizzled old managers, where we can be pretty certain of exactly what we are going to get.
Forget your glamour and glitz, your El Clásicos or your table-topping blockbusters, this is David Moyes up against Sean Dyche – what soccer is all about for me! Likely to be played out on a wet, horrible, cold day in Merseyside.
Here are some stats to whet your appetite as much as mine. Nine of the last 10 meetings between Everton and Nottingham Forest have cashed for Under 2.5 goals, eight of those have cashed for Both Teams to Score: No.
This season, the last four Forest games across all competitions have seen no more than one side score. Five of their last six road trips has also seen that same outcome. For Everton, it is three of the last four Premier League games where both teams to score no has cashed, with both sides winning 1-0 away from home in the midweek games.
Under 2.5 goals here is -143, and yes, I make that about right, but taking “No” in the both teams to score market is -112, which, given all that I have just said, screams massive value. I would be shocked if there are more than two goals in this clash. On that basis, the only scoreline that kills us is 1-1.
A battle between Moyes and Dyche promises to be a tough watch, but we can make it a profitable one. Although the visiting manager is going back to a club he was in charge of last season, they have new owners and are playing in a new stadium with an unrecognizable team.
This one promises to be as dull as the weather, and I am all here for it!
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs. Nottingham Forest – Both Teams to Score: No at -112.
Fulham vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
I have been a champion for fading Crystal Palace for a few weeks now. I see no reason to get off that particular train of thought. They have a tiny squad that is being asked to go again week after week. It is a squad spread even thinner, with more players picking up injuries, something only to be expected given the workload they are being asked to undertake.
Yes, they won in midweek, but that performance against Burnley was probably their worst of the season so far. Fortunately for them, the Clarets just can’t score goals at home and let them off the hook.
Palace are there for the taking. If a team has the confidence and the ability to have a go at the Eagles, then they will take the three points.
Since kicking the season off on August 10th, Oliver Glasner has seen his side play 23 competitive fixtures, already six more than Fulham. They have just played their first of eight games in December, then after this clash, travel away in the Conference League on Thursday before a league meeting with Manchester City.
There is another European night before a trip to Arsenal in the League Cup and a London derby to sign off what has been an amazing 2025, before going again on New Year’s Day. Glasner is a victim of his own success, but he simply doesn’t have the players at his disposal to compete on so many fronts.
Have a go at Palace and you can breach that incredible defense, which is what is keeping them going. Fulham can be that side, they are in good goalscoring form, as highlighted in midweek when they put four past Manchester City.
My only slight concern is that Marco Silva’s men expended a lot of energy in nearly pulling off one of the greatest comebacks we have seen in Premier League history. Finding themselves 1-5 down at one point, the Cottagers refused to down tools and got it back to 4-5 after 78 minutes, but although having an effort cleared off the line, they couldn’t quite complete an incredible escape.
It was great to see Alex Iwobi and Emile Smith Rowe on the scoresheet. They are just the type of players that can cause this Palace side problems, as well as Samuel Chukwueze, who scored two off the bench, so his confidence must be bubbling over.
The Eagles’ performance levels have noticeably dropped in recent weeks. They were awful in beating a shambolic Wolves side 2-0, awful in defeat to Strasbourg, awful in the second half when losing to Manchester United despite taking a 1-0 lead into halftime, and really, really bad on Wednesday at Burnley.
It has got to take its toll at some stage, and although I would love them to be playing a slightly more consistent side, if they were, we wouldn’t be getting +160. Because we are, I can play this slightly safer and take Tie No Bet at -127, giving us the insurance of a refund if the game ends all square.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs. Crystal Palace – Fulham Tie No Bet at -127.
Leeds vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
I am fading Liverpool here, although I do have the caveat that my only concern is Leeds being able to hit the heights they did in midweek.
On current form, the home side deserves respect. The market, however, is giving them next to none with a price of +310 to win this one and the Reds an incredible -124.
Arne Slot is under intense pressure, having seen his side lose nine of their last 14 in all competitions. They have been terrible on the road in the league, losing four of their last five road trips with defeats at Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Brentford and Manchester City.
There are huge problems at Anfield, and the manager has got himself in a muddle where he doesn’t know his best team or even what formation best suits the players at his disposal. Hugo Ekitike looked like an incredible signing at the start of the season, but the Alexander Isak saga has massively impacted him. He now can’t get in the team, has played just 76 minutes across the last three league games, and has not scored a Premier League goal since September.
Leeds were sensational against Chelsea in midweek, fully deserving of their 3-1 win, roared on by an incredible, vocal, passionate home support. If they can replicate that, then the +310 is a huge price and would make the +0.75 Asian Handicap a great bet at -129.
Avoid defeat, and we cash in full. Get defeated by a single goal and we only lose half our stake.
I can’t be taking Liverpool at -124, possibly -110 would in normal circumstances get my interest, as there is normally a price where you think one of the big sides must be backed at. But in their current state, I’m not sure there is a minus money price I would risk investing at.
There is clearly something wrong at the club, and it is beginning to look like Slot has lost the dressing room and seems to have had a falling out with Mo Salah, who is a pale imitation of his former self. His absence for the African Cup of Nations may even be a blessing.
Next week, the Reds travel to Inter Milan in the Champions League, and the current price of +140 about the Italians looks like a gift. But for now, I will fade Liverpool and take Leeds on that plus handicap, with that slight concern regarding them being able to replicate their midweek performance.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds vs. Liverpool – Leeds +0.75 Asian Handicap at -129.
