EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 7-8:
Let’s take a look at the weekend’s EPL best bets:
Aston Villa vs. Southampton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
After a clean sweep of winners from the midweek slate, I’m looking to continue my good form as we attack the weekend fixtures. That starts with my best bet of MD15, which is Aston Villa on a -1.25 Asian Handicap against Southampton.
I put this bet up in midweek when the Saints hosted Chelsea, and we saw a huge move for the Blues, as I predicted. As expected, it cashed easily, with the Londoners running out 5-1 winners, and in truth, it could have been a lot more.
Russell Martin saw his side defend so badly again, and goalkeeper Joe Lumley put in a diabolical performance, making mistake after mistake. The main issue with that is although the manager is seeing it, he seems to have no desire to change it. While he continues to go toe-to-toe with these Premier League heavyweights, his side will continue to get knocked out.
Rock-bottom with just five points from their opening 14 fixtures and conceding over two goals per game, it is obvious Southampton are the worst side in the Premier League this season, possibly in its entire history.
They visit a Villa side who ended a sequence of no win in eight by posting a comfortable 3-1 victory over a decent Brentford outfit on Wednesday. It was good to see their main goal threat, Ollie Watkins, back amongst the goals. Hopefully, he can kick on now. He will certainly be licking his lips at the thought of facing this Saints defense.
Despite having a slight concern that Villa has a big Champions League tie away in Leipzig on Tuesday, I expect them to win this game comfortably. I feel Unai Emery may prioritize the European competition over the league, but it’s not every week you have the opportunity to play Southampton.
The Villains will be far too strong on home soil, where they have a superb record. They lost their opening home league game of the season to Arsenal but since then are unbeaten in nine Premier and Champions League fixtures at Villa Park. In that sequence, they’ve beaten Bayern Munich and drawn with Juventus who are obviously lightyears ahead of Southampton.
Emery may rest a few players with Tuesday in mind but has the strength in depth to take care of Saturday’s terrible visitors. Villa have been exceptional at home over the last couple of seasons and generally make light work of the lower-ranked teams when they visit.
We need a two-goal margin of victory to cash the ticket, but a one-goal win would result in half our stake being returned. I played this market in two of the midweek plays and won easily, and this Southampton side are a side you must oppose in these markets because they concede so many goals.
EPL Best Bets: Aston Villa vs. Southampton – Aston Villa -1.25 Asian Handicap at -118.
Everton vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
What a game this is. Everton will move into a new ground next season, so this is the last-ever league Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. The atmosphere will be unreal, and I believe that is a factor in this game.
The home side are +600 to win this match, which I think is a big price. My only regret about this game is that it is an early kickoff. Without a doubt, this should have been a late game under the lights to make it an even greater spectacle.
But early kickoffs are pretty good for anyone wanting to fade the favorite, and that is what I am going to do. I mentioned the +600 being a big price, but of course, that means the derivatives are too, so we can play Everton on a +1.25 Asian Handicap here.
Liverpool has a Champions League tie to contend with away in Spain on Tuesday, and they will also be missing World Cup winner Alexis Mac Allister for this one through suspension. As much as they struggle, Everton are also a side that are pretty tough to beat.
The Toffees have only lost two of their last 11 games across all competitions, one of which was a heavy defeat at a rejuvenated Manchester United and the other at Southampton, but only by a single goal. At Goodison Park they very rarely get beat.
They did suffer a convincing loss on the opening weekend of the season against Brighton. Then threw away a win against Bournemouth 2-0 up with 87 minutes on the clock, only to concede three goals before the final whistle less than 10 minutes later. Since then, they are unbeaten in five Premier League home games and have only conceded two goals.
I do think this will be quite tight with so much at stake both from the point of view of the league table but also the normal emotional reasoning behind a local derby even more than usual with the Goodison Park situation. But that only makes playing this plus handicap more viable.
What might surprise many is that Everton have a very solid record against Liverpool on home soil. The Reds have only won once in the last seven meetings here, and you would profit from this bet in 11 of the last 12 with a full return in 10 of those.
Sean Dyche couldn’t have wished for a better way to come into this fixture having thumped Wolves 4-0 on Wednesday. Let’s not forget Liverpool on the road are gettable. They have conceded nine goals in their last four road trips.
Everton may not have the strike power to inflict that kind of damage, but I think this is a lot closer than the odds suggest. The only way we don’t profit from this bet is if Liverpool win by two or more goals.
EPL Best Bets: Everton vs. Liverpool – Everton +1.25 Asian Handicap at -121.
Leicester vs. Brighton
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Unusually for me, I was holding a ticket for Over 3.5 goals in Leicester’s match with West Ham on Wednesday, and I was cursing my luck, wondering how it had not cashed. Then, two goals in added-on time sealed the deal.
It was an interesting debut as Leicester City manager for Ruud van Nistelrooy. It ended in what looks an emphatic 3-1 win, but they allowed a massive 31 shots at goal with keeper Mads Hermansen forced into nine saves!
Van Nistelrooy showed what an attack-minded manager he was when interim manager at Manchester United earlier in the season, and that’s why the Foxes have hired him. If they are to go down, they are going down fighting and be entertaining. Season ticket holders at the KP will be in for an entertaining second half of the season.
They could become the new Overs kings, and with Brighton the visitors, they face a side that have been Overs kings for a few seasons now. I don’t think the line has reacted as quickly as it should have done to the managerial change from the pragmatic Steve Cooper, so a line of 3.0 for a push at -118 is a touch of value.
When these sides last met in the Premier League (2022-23) there were 11 goals across the two fixtures, with both cashing this line. Expect more of the same on Sunday.
EPL Best Bets: Leicester vs. Brighton – Over 3.0 Asian Total at -118.
