EPL Best Bets and Predictions February 1-2:
Here are my EPL predictions for the weekend’s matches:
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
No hanging around from me on EPL Match Day 24. My best bet comes from the early kickoff on Saturday. I’m not the only one looking to bounce back from a disappointing week. Nottingham Forest got thrashed 5-0, and Nuno Espirito Santo has said the defeat at Bournemouth must serve as a warning to his team. I expect there to be a reaction, and I also expect there to be goals.
The odds reflect that calling the result is a tricky prospect, with the home side priced as marginal +143 favorites. Seeing Brighton at +165 is usually a trigger for me to get interested in them. They are a good underdog but often let you down at minus money.
The Seagulls are now unbeaten in six road trips, scoring 14 goals in the process. Those stats have led me to this bet. Clearly, this is a side that is comfortable playing away from home, lethal on the counterattack, and whose energetic high press causes problems for the best of teams.
Nottingham Forest have been the Premier League surprise package, evolving from relegation contenders to top-four challengers. However, for the first time this season, Nuno comes into a game off the back of a really bad result and performance. A side that has become used to praise is dealing with a wave of criticism.
They have been very strong at home, scoring plenty of goals with a striker who has been prolific. Chris Wood has 14 league goals so far this campaign. Before the trip to Bournemouth, he hit the back of the net in four consecutive games.
Fabian Hürzeler’s visitors will travel to the City Ground also carrying a real goal threat, as showcased throughout the season to date. Across all competitions, they have played 13 road games and have scored in every one of them.
When these two sides met at Brighton earlier in the campaign, it ended 2-2. When they played here last season, the visitors won 3-2. So, the angle must be goals, and I was very surprised that the line was set at the traditional Over 2.5 when we are used to regularly seeing 3.0, 3.5, or even higher these days.
I was expecting that line to be around -150, so maybe it is the recency bias of both teams failing to score in their last fixtures that has kept the price very backable. Whatever the reason, I am here to take advantage of it.
EPL Pick: Over 2.5 goals at -115.
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
If Bournemouth were happily flying under the radar, they certainly are not now. They have already beaten the other three teams in the top four, with their last two results incredible in traveling to Newcastle and winning 4-1. Then they smashed five unanswered goals past Nottingham Forest. Now it is Liverpool’s turn, and I am taking them to keep this fabulous run going.
Andoni Iraola’s side are now unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions. Their high-intensity all-action system is incredibly awkward to play against, and they are playing it with maximum impact right now.
Although the Cherries have some very good players, there is no real superstar, no one player that if you stop them, you stop the team. As a result, there seems to be incredible team spirit, and they never stop running for each other.
I have been saying for a few weeks now that as good as this Liverpool side are, they do give up plenty of chances and will be in trouble against a team that can take them. Don’t get me wrong, I think Arne Slot’s men are very good, and I’m not saying they get beat here, but they have such a cushion at the top of the table they can afford the odd tie. Especially on the road to an in-form opponent that have already shown they can beat the best this league has to offer.
Don’t read too much into the midweek 3-2 loss at PSV in the Champions League. That was a heavily rotated starting lineup, but they do have some huge fixtures coming up in other competitions, including a deficit to overturn against Tottenham in their EFL Cup semi-final next week. On the road, they have been “getting away with it,” winning games despite offering up plenty of chances.
We can play Double Chance (Bournemouth AND the tie) here at plus money. I feel the league leaders will be pretty content to avoid defeat at the Vitality Stadium. The incentive for the home side is huge to take another scalp, and the win could see them end the weekend in the top four.
The way Bournemouth dismantled Newcastle and then performed a demolition job on Forest means this is a must-play at the odds available.
EPL Pick: Double Chance – Bournemouth or Tie at +117.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
This game has been overshadowed in some respects by the transfer talk around not one but two Aston Villa strikers. After a 4-2 defeat of Celtic on Wednesday, the Villains should be basking in the glory of a top-eight finish in the Champions League. Instead, they have sold 21-year-old Jhon Duran to Al-Nassr in Saudi Arabia for around $80 million. It was also revealed the midlands club had rejected an unwanted bid from Arsenal for top goalscorer Ollie Watkins.
That is one problem they are dealing with until the transfer window shuts on Monday. The other is the win over Celtic. The game was played out in an incredible atmosphere, and the rollercoaster nature of the win, being pegged back after taking a 2-0 lead inside five minutes, would have been emotionally draining for all involved.
All season, Unai Emery’s side have struggled to perform in the league game immediately after a Champions League night. They have drawn three and lost three of their last six matches after playing those big European fixtures this season. Not only have the results been poor, but most of the performances have also been terrible.
Despite being eighth in the table, Emery has been known to pay more focus on the chance of European progression and/or to win a cup. Their final 16 clash in the Champions League looks like it could be a very winnable one, and then once in the last eight – who knows. On current form, they will also be favorites to win their upcoming FA Cup tie with Tottenham.
For Wolves, its sole focus is on this must-win match. It can only be all about the here and now for them. They could not have picked a better time to be facing Aston Villa, not only with the transfer distractions but the strain of going again for a relatively small squad.
The bounce of winning his first two games brought in by new manager Vítor Pereira may have gone a little flat in recent weeks, with his new side losing their last four league fixtures. But look who they were playing—road games at Newcastle and Chelsea in the middle of home matches against Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, all sides in the current top six.
Pereira will remind his squad of those performances against lesser teams, and in Matheus Cunha, they have a real match-winner. He will also point to a great home record against Villa, winning five and losing just one of the last seven meetings at Molineux.
The other four members of the bottom five in the EPL play each other this weekend so that means picking up points here is vital for the home side. I nearly played Wolves on the Double Chance, but with the noise and distractions connected to Villa right now, I must put them forward on the money line at a big price.
EPL Pick: Wolves to win at +245.
