EPL Best Bets and Predictions February 15-16:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Leicester vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
After a break for FA Cup weekend, I am back with my three best bets of this weekend’s EPL slate and looking to follow up a very profitable match day 24. Also back from a break for warm weather training in Dubai are Arsenal, but will have to do without Kai Havertz, who picked up a serious hamstring injury, which is reportedly going to keep him out for the remainder of the season.
That is a big blow for Mikel Arteta, who already has attackers Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus all missing with serious long-term injuries. It has been the hot topic for so long, why haven’t Arsenal bought a striker? Now, it could cost them as they look to keep pace with Liverpool in the race for the title.
However, for this week, I don’t think it will be a problem. Bigger tests await but going to Leicester, even without those players mentioned, the Gunners will have enough to get the win. To illustrate that fact, the market hardly moved once news broke of Havertz’s injury.
Arsenal have had ongoing issues in attack ever since they lost Saka, so their watertight defense has become even more important. Gabriel, Saliba and company have risen to the task, conceding the second-fewest road goals (12) in the league, behind only Crystal Palace.
They travel to face a Leicester outfit who have built a reputation as an attacking front foot side under Ruud van Nistelrooy and who are always good for goals. But the facts say otherwise. Only two sides, the bottom two, have scored fewer than their 25 goals in 24 EPL games. The Foxes have lost their last four at home without scoring.
Leicester have lost eight of their last nine fixtures in the league, while Arsenal haven’t lost a league game since November. That’s a run of 14 games and they have won four of their last six on the road. Some crisis!
For Arteta, it is about getting the win and looking to keep the pressure on Liverpool who have some tough fixtures coming up. That gameplan will be built on the foundations of a strong defense and keeping clean sheets.
Arsenal is -375 to win this match, understandably warm favorites. However, add under 0.5 Leicester goals to that, and the odds become a very attractive looking +100 – and that is my way in here. Essentially an Arsenal win-to-nil.
EPL Pick: Arsenal win-to-nil at +100.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday saw the last ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, and what a wild game it was, full of passion, flying tackles, and an incredible last-second equalizer by Everton. The hardest part for David Moyes now is to get his side back focussed on a trip to Crystal Palace.
I’m sure soon after the final whistle, he was drumming into his players they must follow up a fantastic point against their local rivals and league leaders by getting a positive result at Selhurst Park. Consequently, I think this will be a very close, tight and cagey match.
My infamous 0-0 detector has been making all kinds of noises to draw my attention to this fixture, and I have listened!
These two sides were drawn together in the FA Cup last season, a game I had the misfortune of going to and having to sit through a terrible 0-0 tie. I should have known as it was also 0-0 when they met here in the 2022-23 campaign….and in 2019-20…..and in 2018-19. Going further back, the meetings in 2016 and 2013 were also goalless.
Six of Palace’s last seven matches across all competitions have cashed for Under 2.5 goals bettors. That includes cup ties against sides in the third and fourth tier of English soccer. Eight of Everton’s last nine road matches have also seen fewer than three goals.
Over the whole Premier League campaign across all venues, these two sides have seen the joint highest number of games go Under 2.5 goals with 14 each. That is 58% of all matches played. Palace rank third for home games with 7 of 12, while Everton are clear on the road with an incredible 73% going under.
The Eagles’ rock-solid defensive line and injuries to the Toffees more attacking players make the case even stronger. I firmly believe Moyes will come here in terrible weather conditions and be more than happy to take a point back to Merseyside.
Under 2.5 goals is my bet of the week at odds of -143.
EPL Pick: Under 2.5 goals at -143.
Manchester City vs. Newcastle
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
What a massive opportunity this is for Newcastle against a rival for the top four. I also think it is an opportunity they will capitalize on.
On Tuesday we saw a repetition of a theme we have seen all season. Manchester City up 2-1 with minutes to play in a Champions League match and throwing it away. That followed on from a nervy 2-1 FA Cup win at a Leyton Orient side that are in the third tier of English soccer.
City are there for the taking. No team fears them anymore, and Pep knows it. It reminds me of Mike Tyson in his prime: ferocious and ruthlessly steamrolling all comers until Buster Douglas showed him to be beatable, and others then followed his lead.
In the space of a few months, teams have gone from dreading playing City to relishing it. Enjoying the chance to get through a leggy midfield, attack a wide-open defense and score past a goalkeeper who is just not good enough.
There are so many ways to attack this game because Guardiola’s men are conceding so many goals. But I am going with the biggest price – a straight Newcastle win on the Moneyline.
Across Manchester City’s last 10 matches in all competitions, each one has cashed Over 2.5 goals, nine have hit Over 3.5 goals, six Over 4.5, and four have gone Over 5.5. Over that period, City have kept just two clean sheets, one against relegation favorites Ipswich and the other fourth-tier Salford in the FA Cup.
They must also go to Real Madrid next week and look to overturn a 3-2 deficit, followed by a visit from league leaders Liverpool. You have to ask where this game fits into their priorities, it seems the perfect time to travel to the Etihad.
Eddie Howe has his men playing excellent soccer. There are goals throughout the team, and Alexander Isak is a center forward who can run this brittle home defense ragged. They sit sixth, level on points with City, and they know a win could take them up to fourth. They only have the league to focus on until next month, which is another huge advantage.
On current form, you could argue City should not be minus money against any top-half side let alone a Newcastle outfit that have only lost two of their last 14 competitive matches and won their last six on the road. They have scored 16 goals in those away wins and put in a masterclass in winning both legs of their EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal.
Those performances proved Newcastle can beat the best home and away. Although that is a category I don’t think the hosts here belong in right now, which makes odds of +275 on Howe’s men winning huge value.
EPL Pick: Newcastle to win at +275.
